Heat vs. Kings NBA Betting Tips & Predictions – January 6th

Miami Heat (17-16 SU, 15-18 ATS) vs. Sacramento Kings (17-19 SU, 14-22 ATS)

When: Monday, January 6th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Golden 1 Center, CA, Sacramento

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Mia +3.5/Sac -3.5

Total: 224

Money Line: Miami Heat +141/-166

Notable Injuries

Heat

• Jimmy Butler (Out) Suspension
• Josh Richardson (Doubtful) Heel
• Haywood Highsmith (Questionable) Personal
• Dru Smith (Out) Achilles

Kings

• De’Aaron Fox (Doubtful) Glute

The Miami Heat travel to Sacramento to take on the Kings in a non-conference matchup. The Kings are favored by 3.5 points and have won four straight games. The Heat have lost two in a row and are 6th in the Eastern Conference.

This game will tip-off at 10:00 ET and can be seen on NBCS. The over/under line for this game is currently at 224 points.

Recent Form

Miami fell to 17-16 on the season after a 136-100 loss to the Jazz on Saturday. The Heat, who were -8.5 point favorites at home, not only lost but failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game reached 236, surpassing the O/U line of 224 by 12 points.

After a 22-22 tie in the 1st quarter, Utah took control by outscoring Miami 40-19 in the 2nd. The Jazz extended their lead to 98-66 by the end of the 3rd, and a 10-0 run in the 4th quarter put the game out of reach for Miami.

The Kings improved to 17-19 this season with a dominant 129-99 road win over the Warriors on Sunday. Sacramento, who entered the game as +3.5 point underdogs, not only won but covered the spread in convincing fashion. The total score of 228 points narrowly exceeded the pre-game O/U line of 225.

Sacramento took control early, building a 36-21 lead after the 1st quarter. Although the Warriors went on an 11-0 run to close the gap to 40-39, the Kings responded by outscoring Golden State 39-30 in the 2nd quarter. By the end of the 3rd, Sacramento led 105-75, and the teams played to a 24-24 tie in the 4th.

The Historicals

Across the last five matchups between the teams, Sacramento has gone 3-2 vs the spread. However, the Heat actually have a positive scoring margin in these games at +3 points per game. Over the course of these games, they averaged 223 points per game, leading a 2-3 over-under record.

Analysis

In their 136-100 loss to the Jazz, the Heat struggled offensively, shooting just 43.8% from the field and hitting only nine threes at a 25.7% clip. Nikola Jovic led Miami with 17 points, knocking down 3 threes at 60% efficiency, while Duncan Robinson added 16 points, also connecting on 3 triples.

Tyler Herro contributed 15 points despite shooting just 33.3% from the field. Jaime Jaquez and Kel’el Ware both scored 9 points in the 4th quarter, finishing with 13 and 12 points, respectively.

The Heat’s defense started strong, holding the Jazz to 22 points in the 1st quarter, but things unraveled after that, as they allowed 40 points in the 2nd quarter and 36 in the 3rd. The struggles continued in the 4th, with Miami giving up 38 points, leading to a 136-100 loss.

Overall, the Jazz shot 52% from the field, including 41% from three-point range, where they hit 19 threes. The Heat sent Utah to the line 16 times, where they made 13 free throws. Miami finished with 27 defensive rebounds but allowed 16 offensive boards. They also recorded nine steals and seven blocks.

Malik Monk led the Kings to a 129-99 win over the Warriors, scoring 26 points and dishing out 12 assists while hitting five threes at 62.5%. Domantas Sabonis added 22 points and 13 rebounds, shooting 76.9% from the field. Kevin Huerter contributed 16 points, making four threes at 66.7%.

The Kings shot 51.7% from the field and connected on 19 threes at a rate of 44.2%. Monk scored 10 points in the 3rd quarter, while Sabonis added 10 in the 2nd.

The Kings held the Warriors to 99 points on Sunday, giving up 21 points in the 1st quarter and 24 in both the 3rd and 4th. Sacramento allowed 30 points in the 2nd quarter.

Golden State shot 45% from the field, including 34% from three, making 12 threes. The Warriors went 13/18 from the line. The Kings gave up nine offensive rebounds while recording 15 steals and three blocks.

Betting Trends

• Across their ten previous road games, Miami has an ATS mark of 3-7. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 4-6 while averaging 107 points per game.
• Through their last ten home games, Sacramento has an ATS record of just 4-6. However, their overall record was 5-5 while averaging 114 points per game.
• The Heat have played well in their last three games as the betting underdog, going 2-1 straight up and 2-1 against the spread.
• Against the spread, the Kings have put together of 2-3 in their last five games as the betting favorite. In these same games, they went 3-2 straight up.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

There’s been a lot of drama going on with both of these teams, as the Kings are still fresh off the firing of Mike Brown, and the Heat have suspended Jimmy Butler as he tries to work his way off the team. But for tonight’s matchup, the Kings are favored by -3.5 points at home. Given the way each team is playing coming into this matchup, I like the Kings to win and cover.