Heat vs. Kings: Expert NBA Picks for Nov 4

Sacramento Kings (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS)

When: Monday, November 4th, 8:15 PM (ET)

Where: Kaseya Center, FL, Miami

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Sac +2.5/Mia -2.5

Total: 226.5

Money Line: Sacramento Kings +110/-131

Notable Injuries

Kings

• Kevin Huerter (Questionable) Illness
• Orlando Robinson (Out) Knee
• Devin Carter (Out) Shoulder

Heat

• No Injuries Reported

At 8:15 ET, the Miami Heat (-131) will host the Sacramento Kings (+110) in a non-conference matchup. The Heat are favored by 2.5 points, and the over/under line is 226.5.

This game will be played at the Kaseya Center in Miami and can be seen on NBCS.

Recent Form

The Kings fell to 3-3 on the season after a 131-128 road loss to the Raptors on Saturday. Sacramento entered the game as a -9.5-point favorite but failed to cover the spread. The total points of 259 exceeded the O/U line of 235.5.

After a 12-0 run extended their lead from 111-100 to 123-100, the Kings appeared to be in control. However, they couldn’t hold on, as Toronto outscored them 31-5 the rest of the way.

The Heat improved to 3-2 on the season with a 118-98 road win over the Wizards on Saturday. Miami, favored by 10 points, covered the spread, while the total points of 216 fell short of the 224.5 O/U line.

Miami jumped out to a 31-21 lead after the 1st quarter. Although the Wizards edged the Heat 27-25 in the 2nd quarter, Miami took control in the 3rd, outscoring Washington 33-22. Heading into the 4th with an 89-70 lead, the Heat narrowly outscored the Wizards 29-28 in the final period.

The Historicals

The Heat have had the better record vs the spread over the last five games, going 3-2. The team’s average scoring margin in these contests sits at 8 points per game. The over-under record in these same games is 3-2, with the teams combining for an average of 224 points per game.

Analysis

DeMar DeRozan led the Kings with 33 points in their 131-128 loss to the Raptors, scoring 10 points in the 4th quarter and adding eight more in overtime. De’Aaron Fox contributed 14 of his 24 points in the final period, while Malik Monk added 21 points, with ten coming in the 2nd quarter.

The Kings struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 25% of their threes, making only 10 in the game. They shot 46% from the field overall, with Monk connecting on 42.9% of his threes, making 3 in the game.

The Heat put on a strong defensive performance against the Wizards, holding them to just 98 points on Saturday. Miami limited Washington to 21 points in the 1st quarter and 22 in the 3rd, with the Wizards scoring 27 and 28 points in the 2nd and 4th quarters, respectively.

Overall, the Heat held the Wizards to 41% shooting from the field, including just 20% from three-point range, where Washington made only seven threes. The Wizards also went 15/21 from the free-throw line. Miami gave up eight offensive rebounds while recording six steals and three blocks.

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Kings have a straight-up record of 4-6 while going 5-5 vs. the spread. The team averaged 111 points per game in this stretch.
• Across the Heat’s last ten home games, the team averaged 109 points per game while allowing 108. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 8-2, while going 6-4 straight-up.
• Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Kings have gone 0-3 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 0-3.
• The Heat have played well in their last five games as the betting favorite, going 4-1 straight up and 3-2 against the spread.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Tonight’s Kings vs Heat matchup is one of the tightest point spreads of Monday’s slate, with the Heat sitting at -2.5 point favorites. I think DeMar DeRozan’s playmaking is going to play a big role in this one, as De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk are going to be a handful on the perimeter for the Heat. I’m going with Sacramento to win this one outright.