Heat vs. Hornets Free Pick & Analysis

Miami Heat (28-22 SU, 20-28-2 ATS) vs. Charlotte Hornets (14-36 SU, 20-26-4 ATS)
When: Sunday, January 29th, 1:00 PM (ET)
Where: Spectrum Center, NC, Charlotte
TV: BSSE

Point Spread: Mia -6/Cha +6
Total: 222.0
Money Line: Miami Heat -241/+196

Notable Injuries

Heat

• Duncan Robinson (Out) Finger
• Ömer Yurtseven (Out) Ankle
• Nikola Jovic (Out) Back

Hornets

• Kelly Oubre Jr. (Out) Hand
• Dennis Smith Jr. (Probable) Illness
• Cody Martin (Out) Knee

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Miami is 28-22 overall. When taking to the road, Miami has a mark of 11-13 and a win percentage of 46%. Currently, the team is 6th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 20-28-2 vs. the spread. In their matchup against Charlotte, the Miami Heat have won 3 straight games and will look to push that mark to 4 in a row.

Most recently, the Heat took down the Magic by a score of 110-105. Jimmy Butler finished with 29 points, which was the most on the team. Miami did not cover the spread as the 9-point favorite.

Heading into the game, Charlotte is 14-36 overall. When playing at home, Charlotte has a mark of 6-16 and a win percentage of 27%. Currently, the team is 14th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 20-26-4 vs. the spread. In Charlotte’s last five games, the Hornets have a straight-up record of 3-2 while going 3-2 in those games. Going back to the last 10, they are 3-7 and 3-6-1 ATS.

Charlotte will be looking to build on their most recent win over the Bulls. Terry Rozier led the team to a win with his 28 points. The Hornets were 3-point underdogs on the spread, giving them an ATS win.

The Historicals

In the most recent game between the two teams, the Heat picked up a 117-112 win over the Hornets. However, heading into the game, Miami was favored to win by 11.0 points, giving the Hornets an ATS victory. So far this season, the Heat have a record of 2-0 vs. the Hornets. Over the last five head to head meetings, the Heat have averaged 121 points per game compared to 107 for Charlotte. This has led to an ATS record of 3-2 for Miami. Over the course of these games, they averaged 228 points per game, leading a 3-2 over-under record.

Analysis

This season, Miami is averaging just 108.5 points per game, which places them 30th in the league. A major reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA at just 96.9 possessions per game. The Heat have been able to put together a strong offensive attack despite sitting just 27th in 3-point shooting percentage. Overall, they are among the league leaders in attempts at 35.3 attempts per game. Defensively, the Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.57 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.0%.

Bam Adebayo is the top scorer for the Heat, with an average of 21.5 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 54.0%. Tyler Herro is the team’s second-leading scorer, averaging 20.2 points per game.

For the season, Charlotte is averaging just 112.0 points per game, which is 25th in the league. This below-average production has come despite being one of the faster-paced teams in the NBA (5th). Charlotte’s 3-point shooting numbers are below the league average, as they have hit just 32.4% of their looks from deep. On average, the team gets up 33.0 3-point shots per game, placing them 17th in the NBA. The defense has been a struggle for Charlotte, as they are currently allowing 114.89 points per game. The team’s 3-point shooting defense has been a problem this year. So far, opposing offenses have hit 36.29% of their looks from the outside.

Going into today’s game, Terry Rozier is the leading scorer for the Charlotte team, with an average of 21.5 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 41.3%. The team’s second top scorer is P.J. Washington, who is averaging 14.9 points per game.

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Betting Trends

• The Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.
• The Heat are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Hornets are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• The Hornets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Hornets are having a tough time putting the ball in the basket lately. Miami’s defense hasn’t been playing to their upside lately, but I still think 222.5 is around 7+ points too high. I also think the early start will throw shots off. I’m betting UNDER 222.5!