Heat vs Hawks Prediction & Odds (April 18)

Miami Heat (37-45 SU, 39-42 ATS) vs. Atlanta Hawks (40-42 SU, 41-42 ATS)

When: Friday, April 18th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: State Farm Arena, GA, Atlanta

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Mia -1/Atl +1

Total: 219

Money Line: Miami Heat -113/-105

Notable Injuries

Heat

• Kevin Love (Questionable) Conditioning/Personal
• Dru Smith (Out) Achilles
• Nikola Jović (Questionable) Hand
• Pelle Larsson (Questionable) Ankle

Hawks

• Clint Capela (Out) Hand
• Larry Nance Jr. (Out) Knee
• Trae Young (Probable) Achilles
• Jalen Johnson (Out) Shoulder
• Kobe Bufkin (Out) Shoulder

At 7:00 ET, the Miami Heat (-113) will take on the Atlanta Hawks (-105) in an Eastern Southeast division matchup. The Heat are currently 10th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 37-45. The Hawks are 8th in the East and have a record of 40-42.

This game will be played at State Farm Arena in Atlanta and can be seen on TNT. Miami is favored by 1 point, and the over/under is set at 219.

Recent Form

Miami improved to 37-45 on the season with a 109-90 win over the Bulls on Wednesday. Despite being +2 point underdogs, the Heat not only won but covered the spread with a +19 point victory. The game’s total points of 199 fell well short of the 220 O/U line.

Miami set the tone early, leading 39-28 after the 1st quarter and extending their lead to 71-47 by halftime. Though the Bulls outscored the Heat 27-17 in the 3rd quarter, Miami’s defense held Chicago to 16 points in the 4th, while they added 21 points to close out the game.

The Hawks fell to 40-42 on the season after a 120-95 road loss to the Magic on Tuesday. Atlanta entered the game as +6 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 215, falling short of the 220.5 O/U line.

Orlando’s 11-0 run in the 1st quarter set the tone, as they jumped out to a 26-15 lead. Atlanta responded by winning the 2nd and 3rd quarters, but the Magic dominated the 4th, outscoring the Hawks 41-22 to seal the win.

The Historicals

Over the last five head-to-head meetings, the Heat have averaged 113 points per game compared to 110 for Atlanta. This has led to an ATS record of 3-2 for Miami. Over the course of these games, they averaged 223 points per game, leading a 4-1 over-under record.

Analysis

Tyler Herro led the Heat’s offense in their win over the Bulls, scoring 38 points on 68.4% shooting, including three made threes at 42.9%. Andrew Wiggins contributed 20 points, hitting four threes at 44.4%, while Bam Adebayo added 15 points and 12 rebounds despite shooting just 37.5% from the field.

As a team, Miami shot 49.4% from the field and made 13 threes at a 37.1% clip. Herro scored 16 points in the 1st quarter, with Wiggins adding 10 of his own. Davion Mitchell also chipped in 7 of his 15 points in the final period.

The Heat put on a defensive clinic against the Bulls, allowing just 90 points on 39% shooting. They were particularly effective in the 2nd and 4th quarters, where they gave up only 19 and 16 points, respectively.

Miami also locked down the perimeter, holding Chicago to 27% from three with only 10 made threes. The Heat finished with 36 defensive rebounds, 10 steals, and seven blocks.

In their 120-95 loss to the Magic, the Hawks struggled offensively, shooting just 38.1% from the field and making only four three-pointers at a 19% clip. Trae Young led the way with 28 points and six assists, though he shot 38.1% from the floor.

Georges Niang added 15 points, while Mouhamed Gueye contributed 12 points on perfect shooting. Young scored 12 points in the 3rd quarter, adding another 10 in the 2nd.

Despite a strong defensive effort in the 3rd quarter, where they held the Magic to just 18 points, the Hawks couldn’t keep Orlando in check in the 4th, allowing 41 points in a 120-95 loss. Atlanta did manage to limit the Magic’s three-point shooting, holding them to just 11 made threes on 28% shooting.

Overall, the Hawks sent the Magic to the line 27 times, with Orlando converting 21 free throws. Atlanta finished the game with 33 defensive rebounds while allowing 12 offensive boards. They also recorded five steals and five blocks.

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Heat have a straight-up record of 5-5 while going 6-4 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 111 points per game in these contests.
• In their last three home games, Atlanta has averaged 117 points per game while allowing 113. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
• The last ten games that Atlanta was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 5-5 while going 3-7 straight up.
• The last three games that Miami was favored, they have an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 1-2 straight up.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

These two teams are coming into this one in different places, as the Heat went into Chicago and put together a dominant performance vs a Bulls team that had been playing well. As for the Hawks, it was a frustrating night vs Orlando, which even led to Trae Young’s frustration bubbling over in an ejection. I think the Heat keep things rolling tonight, as Tyler Herro should have another big game. I like Miami on the money line.