Heat vs. Celtics Game 5 Best Bet

Miami Heat (44-38 SU, 43-54-2 ATS) vs. Boston Celtics (57-25 SU, 53-44-2 ATS)
When: Thursday, May 25th, 8:30 PM (ET)
Where: TD Garden, MA, Boston
TV: TNT

Point Spread: Mia +8/Bos -8
Total: 215.5
Money Line: Miami Heat +250/-313

Notable Injuries

Heat

• Victor Oladipo (Out) Knee
• Gabe Vincent (Questionable) Ankle
• Tyler Herro (Out) Hand

Celtics

• Danilo Gallinari (Out) Knee

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Miami is 44-38 overall. When taking to the road, Miami has a mark of 17-24 and a win percentage of 41%. Currently, the team is 8th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 43-54-2 vs the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs. the spread, they are 4-1 in their past 5 games and 3-2 ATS. Over their past 10 games, they are 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS.

Miami most recently lost to the Celtics by a score of 116-99. The team high 29 points from Jimmy Butler was not enough to come away with the win. The Heat were 1-point favorites going into the game.

Heading into the game, Boston is 57-25 overall. When playing at home, Boston has a mark of 32-9 and a win percentage of 78%. Currently, the team is 2nd in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 53-44-2 vs the spread. In Boston’s last 5 games, the Celtics have a straight-up record of 2-3 while going 2-3 in those games. Going back to the last 10, they are 5-5 and 5-5 ATS.

After their win against the Heat, Boston will be looking to continue their momentum. Jayson Tatum had a big game, scoring 33 points to help lead the team to victory. As 1 point underdogs on the spread, the Celtics were able to come home with an ATS win

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Celtics picked up the win 116-99 win over the Heat. Heading into the game, Boston was the 1.5-point underdogs, giving them an ATS win. So far this season, the Heat have a record of 5-3 vs the Celtics. Across the previous 5 meetings between the teams, the Heat have an average scoring margin of +5 points per game, leading to an ATS mark of 4-1. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 3-2. Combined, they averaged 217 points in these games.

Analysis

This season, Miami is averaging 109.5 points per game, which places them 34th in the league and are one of the slower paces in the NBA at just 96.2 possessions per game. In terms of 3-point shooting, the Heat are ranked 17th in attempts per game and have connected at a rate of 34.4%. Defensively, the Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.57 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.0%.

Going into today’s game, Jimmy Butler leads the team at 22.9 points per game.

For the season, Boston has put together one of the top-scoring offenses in the NBA at 117.9 points per game. When looking at their style of play, the team is currently near the league average in pace, averaging 99.3 possessions per contest. Boston’s offensive attack has benefited from some hot shooting from outside. Not only are they among the league leaders in 3-pointers attempted per game, but they are 6th in 3-point shooting percentage at 37.7%. Defensively, the Celtics have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 104.5 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 33.9%.

As the Celtics prepare for today’s game, Jayson Tatum is their leading scorer with an average of 30.1 points per game. This season, Tatum has a field goal percentage of 46.6%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Jaylen Brown, who is averaging 26.6 points per game.

Betting Trends

• The Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a ATS loss.
• The Celtics are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• The Celtics are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 Thursday games.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

I think we see more of the same in Game 5. Boston comes out extremely motivated and beats Miami handily on their home court. Especially if Gabe Vincent sits.