Heat vs. Celtics Game 1 Total Pick

Miami Heat (44-38 SU, 40-53-2 ATS) vs. Boston Celtics (57-25 SU, 52-41-2 ATS)

When: Wednesday, May 17th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: TD Garden, MA, Boston

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Mia +8.5/Bos -8.5 (Did you know you can bet on games at -105 instead of -110? Find this beautiful money saving offer at BAS Sportsbook!)

Total: 210.5

Money Line: Miami Heat +281/-354

Notable Injuries

Heat

• Victor Oladipo (Out) Knee
• Cody Zeller (Questionable) Illness
• Tyler Herro (Out) Hand

Celtics

• Danilo Gallinari (Out) Knee

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Miami is 44-38 overall. When taking to the road, Miami has a mark of 17-24 and a win percentage of 41%. Currently, the team is 8th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 40-53-2 vs the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs. the spread, they are 3-2 in their past 5 games and 3-2 ATS. Over their past 10 games, they are 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS.

The Heat from Miami triumphed in their last match against the Knicks, achieving a 96-92 victory. Jimmy Butler had the most points for the Heat with 24. Despite the win, the Heat did not cover the spread as 6-point favorites.

Heading into the game, Boston is 57-25 overall. When playing at home, Boston has a mark of 32-9 and a win percentage of 78%. Currently, the team is 2nd in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 52-41-2 vs. the spread. Boston will look to stay hot in today’s game vs. Miami as they are the winners of 2 straight games.

In their previous game, the Boston team emerged victorious against the 76ers, winning by a margin of 6 points as predicted. Jayson Tatum shone for the Celtics, scoring 51 points on a shooting percentage of 60.7%. The Celtics not only won the game but also successfully covered the spread.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Heat picked up the 98-95 win over the Celtics. The Heat point margin of victory was enough to cover the spread as a 2.0 point favorite. So far, the two teams have split their season series, with each team at 2-2. The Celtics have had the better record vs. the spread over the last 5 games, going 3-2. The team’s average scoring margin in these contests sits at 4 points per game. Miami and Boston averaged a combined 218 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

This season, Miami is averaging just 109.5 points per game, which places them 36th in the league. A major reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA at just 96.2 possessions per game. Miami’s 3-point shooting numbers are below the league average, as they have hit just 34.4% of their looks from deep. On average, the team gets up 34.8 3-point shots per game, placing them 16th in the NBA. Defensively, the Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.57 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.0%.

Coming into today’s game, Bam Adebayo is averaging 20.4 points per game on a field goal percentage of 54.0%. The team’s leading scorer is Jimmy Butler, at 22.9 points per contest.

For the season, Boston has put together one of the top-scoring offenses in the NBA at 117.9 points per game. When looking at their style of play, the team is currently near the league average in pace, averaging 99.3 possessions per contest. The Celtics have been able to put together a strong offensive attack despite sitting just 1st in 3-point shooting percentage. Overall, they are among the league leaders in attempts at 42.6 attempts per game. Defensively, the Celtics have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 104.48 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 33.86%.

Jayson Tatum is the top scorer for the Celtics, with an average of 30.1 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 46.6%. Jaylen Brown is the team’s second-leading scorer, averaging 26.6 points per game.

Betting Trends

• The Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
• The Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.
• The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The edges and advantages are very few this deep into the playoffs. With that being said, my lean is to the UNDER 210.5. Got a minute? It’d be to your benefit to read up on how you can receive a FREE half point everytime you bet your favorite teams!