Heat vs. Bulls Play-in: Joe’s Recommended Bet on the Spread

Miami Heat (37-45 SU, 38-42 ATS) vs. Chicago Bulls (39-43 SU, 43-37 ATS)

When: Wednesday, April 16th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: United Center, IL, Chicago

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Mia +1/Chi -1

Total: 220

Money Line: Miami Heat -103/-115

Notable Injuries

Heat

• Kevin Love (Questionable) Personal
• Dru Smith (Out) Achilles
• Nikola Jović (Questionable) Hand
• Pelle Larsson (Questionable) Ankle

Bulls

• Lonzo Ball (Doubtful) Wrist
• Tre Jones (Out) Foot
• Josh Giddey (Probable) Forearm
• Ayo Dosunmu (Out) Shoulder
• Dalen Terry (Probable) Calf

At 7:30 ET, the Chicago Bulls (-115) will host the Miami Heat (-103) in a game that can be seen on ESPN. The Bulls are currently favored by 1 point, and the over/under line is set at 220.

Chicago (39-43) is currently on a 3-game win streak and is 9th in the Eastern Conference. Miami (37-45) is 10th in the East and 3rd in the Southeast Division.

Recent Form

The Heat’s season ended with a 119-118 home loss to the Wizards on Sunday, dropping their final record to 37-45. Miami, who were -8.5 point favorites, failed to cover the spread. The game’s total of 237 points went over the 215.5-point line.

A key moment was Washington’s 10-0 run, which stretched the score from 24-19 to 34-19. Miami battled back, outscoring the Wizards 32-25 in the 4th quarter, but it wasn’t enough to complete the comeback.

The Bulls wrapped up their season with a 122-102 win over the 76ers on Sunday, finishing the year at 39-43. Chicago, favored by 8.5 points, covered the spread in the road victory. The game’s total of 224 points fell short of the 236.5-point over/under line.

After a 29-29 tie in the 1st quarter, the Bulls fell behind 56-49 at halftime. They turned things around in the 3rd quarter, outscoring Philadelphia 37-19, and carried an 86-75 lead into the 4th, where they closed out the game by outscoring the 76ers 36-27.

The Historicals

Spanning across the last five head-to-head matchups, the Heat and Bulls have been competitive, with an average margin of victory sitting at just 0 points per game. This has resulted in a 4-1 ATS record for Chicago. The over-under record in these same games is 3-2, with the teams combining for an average of 228 points per game.

Analysis

Jaime Jaquez Jr. put up a standout performance for the Heat in their 119-118 loss to the Wizards, scoring 41 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists while shooting 68% from the field. Josh Christopher and Keshad Johnson added 17 points each, with Johnson hitting 77.8% of his shots.

Miami shot 50% from the field but struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 31.2% with 10 made threes. Jaquez scored 12 points in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters, while Christopher added 15 of his 17 points in the 4th.

Defensively, the Heat struggled in the 2nd quarter, allowing 36 points, but they tightened up in the 4th, giving up just 25. Overall, they allowed 119 points on 51% shooting from the Wizards.

Miami also had trouble defending the three, as Washington hit 16 threes at a 43% clip. The Heat sent the Wizards to the line 17 times, where they made 11 free throws. Miami recorded eight steals and six blocks.

In their win over the 76ers, the Bulls shot 45.6% from the field and 32.5% from three-point range, hitting 13 threes. Kevin Huerter led the way with 18 points, knocking down five threes at a 71.4% clip, with 11 of his points coming in the 1st quarter.

Talen Horton-Tucker added 17 points, scoring 9 in the 3rd quarter, while Patrick Williams contributed 15 points, with 8 in the 4th. Zach Collins also scored 9 of his 13 points in the 3rd, and Jalen Smith added 8 of his 12 points in the final period.

The Bulls held the 76ers to 102 points, limiting them to 29 points in the 1st quarter and 27 in the 2nd and 4th. Their best defensive effort came in the 3rd, where they allowed just 19 points.

Chicago’s defense was strong, holding Philadelphia to 38% shooting, including 27% from three-point range, with the 76ers making 12 threes. The Bulls also recorded 10 steals and four blocks.

Betting Trends

• Miami has played well in their previous five road games, going 4-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 125 points per game while allowing 103. The team also performed well vs the spread at 4-1.
• In their last five home games, Chicago has averaged 122 points per game while allowing 123. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-2 while going 3-2 vs. the spread.
• Through their last three games as the underdog, the Heat have an ATS record of 3-0, and a straight-up mark of 2-1.
• Chicago has done well both straight up and vs. the spread when favored to win the game, going 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

I think tonight’s Heat vs Bulls matchup has the potential to be the best game of the first round of the play-in. Even though both the Heat and Bulls have mediocre records for the season, some playmakers on each team will be fun to watch. In terms of getting a bet down on the spread, I think getting Chicago at -1 is a steal. I’m counting on them taking care of business vs the Heat, and am taking them to cover at home.