Hawks vs. Nuggets Picks & Predictions – January 1, 2025

Atlanta Hawks (18-15 SU, 15-18 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (18-13 SU, 13-17 ATS)

When: Wednesday, January 1st, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver

TV: ALT

Point Spread: Atl +5.5/Den -5.5

Total: 246.5

Money Line: Atlanta Hawks +180/-214

Notable Injuries

Hawks

• Cody Zeller (Out) Not With Team
• Larry Nance Jr. (Out) Hand
• Bogdan Bogdanovic (Doubtful) Leg
• Trae Young (Probable) Achilles
• Dyson Daniels (Probable) Illness
• Kobe Bufkin (Out) Shoulder

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Out) Calf
• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee
• DaRon Holmes II (Out) Achilles

In a non-conference matchup, the Atlanta Hawks (18-15) will travel to Denver to take on the Nuggets (18-13). The Hawks are currently on a four-game win streak and are 6th in the Eastern Conference, while the Nuggets have won two straight and are 5th in the West.

Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 ET, and the game can be seen on ALT.

Recent Form

The Hawks improved to 18-15 this season with a dominant 136-107 win over the Raptors on Sunday. Atlanta, who were +1 point underdogs, not only won but covered the spread with a +29 point victory. The game’s total points of 243.5 just edged over the pre-game O/U line of 242.5.

Atlanta took control early, leading 35-25 after the 1st quarter. Although the Raptors fought back in the 2nd, winning it 33-29, the Hawks responded with a huge 3rd quarter, outscoring Toronto 40-24. They entered the 4th with a 104-82 lead and finished strong, winning the final quarter 32-25.

Denver improved to 18-13 on the season with a 132-121 win over the Jazz on Monday. The Nuggets, who were favored by 7.5 points, covered the spread with the victory. The game’s total points of 253.5 exceeded the O/U line of 238.5 by 14.5 points.

A key moment came when Denver went on a 10-0 run, extending their lead from 24-21 to 34-21. They outscored Utah 34-23 in the 3rd quarter and maintained their lead by edging the Jazz 34-32 in the 4th.

The Historicals

Over the last five head-to-head meetings, the Nuggets have averaged 129 points per game compared to 113 for Atlanta. This has led to an ATS record of 4-1 for Denver. A combined average of 242 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 5-0.

Analysis

Trae Young’s 34 points and 10 assists, including seven threes at 53.8%, led the Hawks to a 136-point performance against the Raptors. De’Andre Hunter added 22 points, shooting 72.7% from the field.

Atlanta hit 18 threes at a 40% clip, finishing with a 48.4% overall shooting percentage. Young scored 12 points in the 3rd quarter, while Onyeka Okongwu added 9 of his 15 points in the same period.

The Hawks put together a strong defensive performance, holding the Raptors to 107 points on 44% shooting. They gave up 25 points in both the 1st and 4th quarters and had their best defensive stretch in the 3rd, allowing just 24 points.

Atlanta was particularly effective at defending the three, limiting Toronto to 7 made threes on 29% shooting. The Hawks also came up with 22 steals and blocked eight shots in the game.

In their win over the Jazz, the Nuggets shot 50.5% from the field but struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 30% of their threes, with only nine made. Nikola Jokic led the way with 36 points, 22 rebounds, and 11 assists despite shooting 42.4% from the field and 33.3% from three.

Jokic scored 17 of his points in the 3rd quarter, while Michael Porter Jr. added 9 of his 21 points in the 4th. Christian Braun and Jamal Murray both contributed 20 points, with Braun shooting 75% from the field.

Despite a rough start, giving up 37 points in the 1st quarter, the Nuggets tightened up defensively in the 3rd, allowing just 23 points to help secure the win over the Jazz. Denver gave up 121 points on 51% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Nuggets held Utah to 13 threes on 34% shooting. Denver also sent the Jazz to the line 22 times, where they made 20 free throws. The Nuggets finished with 34 defensive rebounds and allowed seven offensive boards while also recording 13 steals.

Betting Trends

• In their last five road games, Atlanta has averaged 118 points per game while allowing 110. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-2 while going 3-2 vs. the spread.
• Across the Nuggets’ last five home games, the team averaged 123 points per game while allowing 123. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 2-3, while going 3-2 straight-up.
• Looking back on the team’s last five games as the underdog, the Hawks have a straight-up record of 2-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 2-3.
• In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Nuggets have a straight-up record of 6-4 and an ATS mark of 4-6.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Hawks and Nuggets kick off 2025, each looking for their 19th win of the season, as they face off in Denver tonight. For me, this is a tough one to read versus the spread, but I see this game featuring a lot of scoring, as both teams have been really piling up the points lately. Even with this line sitting at 246.5, I’m taking the over.