Hawks vs. Heat Betting Predictions & Analysis 4/11/23

Atlanta Hawks (41-41 SU, 36-45-1 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (44-38 SU, 31-49-2 ATS)
When: Tuesday, April 11th, 7:30 PM (ET)
Where: Kaseya Center, FL, Miami
TV: TNT

Point Spread: Atl +5/Mia -5
Total: 226.5
Money Line: Atlanta Hawks +169/-206

Notable Injuries

Hawks

Heat

• Kyle Lowry (Questionable) Knee
• Max Strus (Probable) Finger
• Nikola Jovic (Out) Back

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Atlanta is 41-41 overall. When taking to the road, Atlanta has a mark of 17-24 and a win percentage of 41%. Currently, the team is 8th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 36-45-1 vs the spread. Atlanta travels to take on the Heat, hoping to avoid their 3rd straight loss.

Most recently, Atlanta lost to the Celtics by a score of 120-114. Garrison Mathews and his 19 points were not enough for the team to pull out a win as 4-point underdogs. The Hawks also finished with an ATS loss in the game.

Heading into the game, Miami is 44-38 overall. When playing at home, Miami has a mark of 27-14 and a win percentage of 66%. Currently, the team is 7th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 31-49-2 vs the spread. In Miami’s last 5 games, the Heat have a straight-up record of 4-1 while going 3-2 in those games. Going back to the last 10, they are 6-4 and 5-5 ATS.

In their last game, Miami defeated the Magic (123-110) as 5-point favorites. Udonis Haslem led the team with 24 points on 52.9% shooting. The Heat also covered the spread with the victory.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Heat picked up the win 106-98 win over the Hawks. Heading into the game, Miami was the 4.0-point underdogs, giving them an ATS win. So far this season, the Heat have a record of 3-1 vs. the Hawks. Spanning across the last 5 head-to-head matchups, the Hawks and Heat have been competitive, with an average margin of victory sitting at just -2 points per game. This has resulted in a 3-2 ATS record for Atlanta. Atlanta and Miami averaged a combined 222 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

This season, Atlanta is among the league leaders in scoring, averaging 118.4 points per game. So far, the Hawks are also one of the more up-tempo teams in the league, sitting at 101.0 possessions per game. Atlanta has struggled with their 3-point shot this season, as they are currently ranked just 21st in 3-point shooting percentage at 35.2%. In addition, they are near the bottom of the league in attempts, at just 30.5 attempts per contest. Defense has been a struggle for Atlanta, as they are currently allowing 112.38 points per game. The team’s 3-point shooting defense has been a problem this year. So far, opposing offenses have hit 36.43% of their looks from the outside.

Trae Young is the top scorer for the Hawks, with an average of 26.2 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 42.9%. Dejounte Murray is the team’s second-leading scorer, averaging 20.5 points per game.

This season, Miami is averaging just 109.5 points per game, which places them 30th in the league. A major reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA, at just 96.2 possessions per game. The Heat have been able to put together a strong offensive attack despite sitting just 27th in 3-point shooting percentage. Overall, they are among the league leaders in attempts at 34.8 attempts per game. Defensively, the Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.57 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.0%.

Bam Adebayo is the top scorer for Miami, averaging 20.4 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 54.0%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Jimmy Butler, with an average of 22.9 points per game.

Betting Trends

Hawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Hawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Miami Heat went 4-1 to end the NBA’s regular season and stomped the daylights out of the competition in doing so. Furthermore, the Heat have beaten Atlanta seven straight times at Kaseya Center. Kyle Lowry is listed as questionable, and frankly, I’m hoping he sits because I believe they’re a better team without him. I’m betting on Jimmy Butler and Co. at -5.