Hawks vs. Bucks: NBA ATS Pick for December 4th Showdown

Atlanta Hawks (11-11 SU, 9-13 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (11-9 SU, 8-11 ATS)

When: Wednesday, December 4th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee

TV: FDSW

Point Spread: Atl +4.5/Mil -4.5

Total: 236.5

Money Line: Atlanta Hawks +156/-186

Notable Injuries

Hawks

• Cody Zeller (Out) Not With Team
• Trae Young (Probable) Achilles

Bucks

• Khris Middleton (Questionable) Ankle
• MarJon Beauchamp (Questionable) Neck

The Milwaukee Bucks (-186) are favored by 4.5 points over the Atlanta Hawks (+156) in a matchup between two teams on winning streaks. The Hawks have won four straight games, while the Bucks have won seven.

This Eastern Conference matchup will be played at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. The game is set to tip-off at 8:00 ET and can be seen on FDSW.

Recent Form

The Hawks evened their record at 11-11 with a 124-112 win over the Pelicans on Monday. Atlanta, favored by 9.5 points, covered the spread, and the game’s total of 236 points went over the 231.5-point line.

A key 10-0 run early in the game helped Atlanta take control, and they outscored New Orleans in each of the last three quarters, including a 32-27 edge in the 4th.

The Bucks improved to 11-9 this season with a 128-107 win over the Pistons on Tuesday. Milwaukee, favored by 3 points, covered the spread in the road victory. The total score of 235 points exceeded the O/U line of 221.5 by 13.5 points.

A key moment in the game was a 14-0 run by the Bucks, turning a 64-55 deficit into a 69-64 lead. Milwaukee then dominated the 2nd quarter, outscoring Detroit 42-28, and entered the 4th quarter with a 110-88 lead, allowing them to coast to the finish.

The Historicals

Spanning across the last five head-to-head matchups, the Hawks and Bucks have been competitive, with an average margin of victory sitting at just 1 point per game. This has resulted in a 3-2 ATS record for Milwaukee. Atlanta and Milwaukee averaged a combined 233 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

De’Andre Hunter led the Hawks with 22 points and four threes, shooting 57.1% from deep in their win over the Pelicans. Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels each added 19 points, with Johnson shooting 64.3% from the field.

Atlanta shot 51% overall but struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 26.3% with ten made threes. Hunter scored 9 points in the 4th quarter, while Johnson added 10 in the final frame.

Defensively, the Hawks gave up 112 points to the Pelicans but held them to 44% shooting from the field. Atlanta allowed 28 points in the 1st quarter and 31 in the 2nd, but they tightened up in the 3rd, giving up just 26 points, and allowed 27 in the 4th.

From beyond the arc, the Hawks limited the Pelicans to 13 made threes on 31% shooting. They also sent New Orleans to the line 17 times, where the Pelicans hit 11 free throws. Atlanta finished with 12 steals and four blocks.

The Bucks’ offense was firing on all cylinders in their 128-107 win over the Pistons, shooting 56.2% from the field and knocking down 23 threes at a 56.1% clip. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 28 points, 17 of which came in the 3rd quarter, while Damian Lillard added 27 points, hitting five threes.

Gary Trent Jr. contributed 16 points, and Bobby Portis and Taurean Prince each chipped in 14. AJ Green also reached double figures with 11 points, with six coming in the 2nd quarter.

Despite giving up 31 points in the 1st quarter, the Bucks tightened up defensively in the 4th, allowing just 19 points to the Pistons and securing a 128-107 win. Milwaukee gave up 31 points in the 1st quarter but improved as the game went on, allowing 28 points in the 2nd, 29 in the 3rd, and just 19 in the 4th.

The Bucks held the Pistons to 11 made threes on 33% shooting from deep. Detroit also went 16/22 from the free-throw line. Milwaukee finished with ten steals and six blocks.

Betting Trends

• Across the Hawks last three road games, the team averaged 121 points per game while allowing 121. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 1-2 while going 2-1 straight-up.
• In their last five home games, Milwaukee has averaged 111 points per game while allowing 111. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-3 while going 3-2.
• As the betting underdog, the Hawks have an ATS mark of just 6-4 in their last ten games. Atlanta posted a straight-up mark of 5-5 in these matchups.
• As the betting favorite, the Bucks have an ATS record of 3-2 in their last five games. In these matchups, their straight up record was 5-0.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Bucks have suddenly become one of the hottest teams in the NBA after it appeared that everything was falling apart early this season. However, I really like the Hawks at +4.5 in this one. Milwaukee played last night, and the Hawks have been on a roll since last week, taking down the Cavs twice and picking up wins over the Hornets and Pelicans as well. I’m going with Atlanta at +4.5.