Grizzlies vs. Warriors Play-in Prediction: Will Golden State Cover?

Memphis Grizzlies (48-34 SU, 40-40 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (48-34 SU, 42-38 ATS)

When: Tuesday, April 15th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Chase Center, CA, San Francisco

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Mem +7/GS -7

Total: 229

Money Line: Memphis Grizzlies +239/-292

Notable Injuries

Grizzlies

• Brandon Clarke (Out) Knee
• Jaylen Wells (Out) Wrist/Concussion

Warriors

• No Injuries Reported

At 10:00 ET on TNT, the Memphis Grizzlies (+239) travel to San Francisco to take on the Golden State Warriors (-292). The over/under line is currently set at 229 points.

Golden State (-7) is currently 7th in the Western Conference with a record of 48-34, while Memphis (+7) is 8th in the West with the same record.

Recent Form

The Grizzlies improved to 48-34 this season with a dominant 132-97 win over the Mavericks on Sunday. Memphis, who were +2 point underdogs, covered the spread with ease. The game’s total points reached 229, just surpassing the 228-point line.

A 13-0 run early in the game helped Memphis take control, and they never looked back. After leading 67-54 at halftime, the Grizzlies held the Mavericks to just 21 points in the 3rd quarter while scoring 37 of their own, effectively sealing the game.

The Warriors fell to 48-34 on the season after a 124-119 home loss to the Clippers on Sunday. Golden State, favored by 3.5 points, not only lost the game but also failed to cover the spread. The combined score of 243 points exceeded the O/U line of 218.5 by 24.5 points.

Golden State went on a 15-0 run to take a 40-25 lead, but the Clippers responded by outscoring them 35-25 in the 2nd quarter. The Warriors edged the Clippers 24-23 in the 3rd quarter but couldn’t pull off the win, as they were outscored 28-29 in the final period.

The Historicals

Spanning across the last five head-to-head matchups, the Grizzlies and Warriors have been competitive, with an average margin of victory sitting at just 2 points per game. This has resulted in a 3-2 ATS record for Golden State. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 4-1. Combined, they averaged 244 points in these games.

Analysis

Lamar Stevens led the Grizzlies to a 132-97 win over the Mavericks, scoring 31 points and grabbing six rebounds, with 12 of his points coming in the 4th quarter. Marvin Bagley added 25 points and 12 rebounds, while Cam Spencer contributed 23 points, hitting five threes at a 38.5% rate.

Memphis made 15 threes as a team, shooting 36.6% from deep and 50% overall from the field. Jay Huff also had a big game, scoring 12 of his 22 points in the 2nd quarter.

The Grizzlies put on a defensive clinic, holding the Mavericks to just 97 points. Memphis allowed 28 points in the 1st quarter but tightened up as the game went on, giving up 26 in the 2nd, 21 in the 3rd, and 22 in the 4th.

Memphis was especially effective at defending the three-point line, where they limited Dallas to just 5 made threes on 17% shooting. The Grizzlies also racked up 13 steals and seven blocks in the game.

In their 124-119 loss to the Clippers, the Warriors shot 54.4% from the field and hit 15 threes at a 45.5% clip. Stephen Curry led the way with 36 points, knocking down seven threes at 58.3% efficiency.

Jimmy Butler added 30 points and nine assists, shooting 60% from the floor. Brandin Podziemski contributed 19 points, hitting 63.6% of his shots, including two threes at 50%.

Despite a strong defensive effort in the 1st and 3rd quarters, the Warriors couldn’t contain the Clippers, giving up 35 points in the 2nd quarter and 28 in the 4th, leading to a 124-119 loss. Golden State allowed Los Angeles to shoot 55% from the field.

The Warriors also struggled to defend the three-point line, where the Clippers hit 14 threes at a 46% clip. Golden State sent Los Angeles to the line 18 times, where they made 14 free throws. The Warriors recorded 11 steals and six blocks.

Betting Trends

• In their last three road games, Memphis has averaged 114 points per game while allowing 106. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
• When looking at their past three matchups at home, Golden State has an ATS record of 3-0 while averaging 119 per game. The team went 3-0 overall in these games.
• Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Grizzlies have gone 1-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Warriors have a straight-up record of 2-3 and an ATS mark of 2-3.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Warriors are the huge favorite coming into tonight’s play-in tournament matchup vs the Grizzlies. Currently, the lines are sitting at -7 in favor of Golden State. Down the stretch, the Grizzlies went just 4-6 over their last 10. Overall, they were 22-19 on the road this year and went just 1-3 vs the Warriors. Even with this big line, I like Golden State to win and cover.