Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves NBA Picks: Expert Predictions 1/11/24

Memphis Grizzlies (24-14 SU, 24-14 ATS) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (20-17 SU, 15-21 ATS)

When: Saturday, January 11th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Target Center, MN, Minneapolis

TV: FDSN

Point Spread: Mem +1.5/Min -1.5

Total: 230

Money Line: Memphis Grizzlies +101/-120

Notable Injuries

Grizzlies

• Marcus Smart (Out) Finger
• Vince Williams Jr. (Out) Ankle
• GG Jackson II (Out) Foot
• Cam Spencer (Out) Thumb

Timberwolves

• Rob Dillingham (Out) Ankle

The Timberwolves (-120) are favored by 1.5 points over the Grizzlies (+101) in a Western Conference matchup. The over/under line for the game is 230 points.

Memphis is 24-14 and currently sits third in the Western Conference. The Timberwolves are 20-17 and have won three straight games. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:00 ET at the Target Center in Minneapolis.

Recent Form

The Grizzlies fell to 24-14 on the season after a 119-115 home loss to the Rockets on Thursday. Memphis, who were -3 point favorites, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The game’s total points of 234 just missed the O/U line of 234.5.

Houston’s 12-0 run early in the game put Memphis on the back foot, but the Grizzlies fought back, winning the 2nd quarter 27-23. However, they couldn’t close the gap after being outscored 33-29 in the 3rd, despite a strong defensive effort in the 4th, where they held the Rockets to 18 points while scoring 23.

The Timberwolves improved to 20-17 on the season with a 104-89 win over the Magic on Thursday. Minnesota, favored by 6 points, covered the spread, and the combined total of 193 points fell short of the 199.5-point line.

A key moment came when the Timberwolves went on a 12-0 run, extending the score from 40-37 to 49-40. They built on this momentum, leading 78-62 going into the 4th quarter. Despite losing the final quarter 27-26, Minnesota’s strong start helped them secure the win.

The Historicals

In terms of betting, Minnesota has an ATS record of 3-2 in the previous five matchups vs Memphis. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +10 points per game in favor of the Timberwolves. A combined average of 222 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 4-1.

Analysis

Ja Morant led the Grizzlies with 27 points in their 119-115 loss to the Rockets, scoring 14 of those in the 3rd quarter. Jaren Jackson Jr. added 21 points, while Desmond Bane contributed 16, with 10 coming in the final period.

Memphis shot 50% from the field but struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 31.2% of their threes, making 10 in total. Bane connected on two threes, shooting 40% from deep.

Despite a strong defensive effort in the 2nd and 4th quarters, the Grizzlies couldn’t overcome a rough 1st quarter, where they allowed 45 points, leading to a 119-115 loss to the Rockets. Memphis held Houston to 42% shooting from the field.

The Grizzlies sent the Rockets to the line 41 times, where they made 24 free throws. Memphis also gave up 16 offensive rebounds but managed to record nine steals and eight blocks.

Julius Randle’s 23 points and 10 rebounds led the Timberwolves to a win over the Magic, with Anthony Edwards adding 21 points despite shooting just 26.3% from the field. Randle and Edwards each scored 9 points in the opening quarter, while Naz Reid contributed 7 of his 16 points in the 1st and 3rd quarters.

Minnesota shot 40% from the field and made 12 three-pointers at a 35.3% clip. Reid hit two threes, shooting 50% from deep, and Edwards connected on four threes, shooting 36.4% from beyond the arc.

The Timberwolves put on a defensive clinic against the Magic, holding them to just 89 points on Thursday. Minnesota’s defense was consistent throughout, allowing 18 points in the 1st quarter, 21 in the 2nd, 23 in the 3rd, and 27 in the 4th. They limited Orlando to 37% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Timberwolves were equally effective, as the Magic shot just 25% on three-pointers, making only 10. Minnesota also sent Orlando to the line 19 times, where they hit 13 free throws. The Timberwolves finished with nine steals and four blocks.

Betting Trends

• Although Memphis has a straight-up record of 5-5 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 5-5. The team averaged 122 points per game in these games.
• In their last five home games, Minnesota has averaged 106 points per game while allowing 106. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-2 while going 3-2 vs. the spread.
• Spanning across their last five games as the betting underdog, the Grizzlies have gone 2-3 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 2-3.
• Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Timberwolves have a straight-up record of 6-4. But their mark vs the spread was just 4-6.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Minnesota appears to be catching their stride a bit, as they have won three straight games, while Memphis is just 5-5 in their last 10 games. Currently, the Timberwolves are favored by -1.5 points at home over the Grizzlies. But it is worth noting that Memphis has had a much tougher schedule lately. Yet, I still like Minnesota to win and cover at home, as Anthony Edwards has been playing really well of late, and Memphis is dealing with a few key injuries, including Marcus Smart. I’m going with Minnesota -1.5.