Grizzlies vs. Spurs Spread Pick & Analysis

Memphis Grizzlies (41-27 SU, 32-34-2 ATS) vs. San Antonio Spurs (18-51 SU, 28-41-0 ATS)
When: Friday, March 17th, 8:00 PM (ET)
Where: AT&T Center, TX, San Antonio
TV: BSSW

Point Spread: Mem -7.5/SA +7.5
Total: 231.5
Money Line: Memphis Grizzlies -323/+258

Notable Injuries

Grizzlies

• Steven Adams (Out) Knee
• Ja Morant (Out) Suspension
• Brandon Clarke (Out) Achilles
• Jake LaRavia (Questionable) Back
• Vince Williams Jr. (Out) Right Shoulder

Spurs

• Khem Birch (Out) Knee
• Devonte’ Graham (Out) Quad
• Keita Bates-Diop (Questionable) Achilles
• Romeo Langford (Out) Adductor
• Charles Bassey (Out) Patella

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Memphis is 41-27 overall. When taking to the road, Memphis has a mark of 13-22 and a win percentage of 37%. Currently, the team is 3rd in the Western Conference. So far, they are 32-34-2 vs the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs the spread, they are 3-2 in their past 5 games and 2-3 ATS. Over their past 10 games, they are 6-4 SU and 6-4 ATS.

In their last outing, Memphis was unable to come away with a win against the Heat, losing by a score of 138-119. Jaren Jackson Jr. led the team with 25 points, but it was not enough to overcome their status as 4-point underdogs. The Grizzlies also ended up with an ATS loss in the game.

Heading into the game, San Antonio is 18-51 overall. When playing at home, San Antonio has a mark of 12-24 and a win percentage of 33%. Currently, the team is 14th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 28-41-0 vs the spread. In San Antonio’s last 5 games, the Spurs have a straight-up record of 2-3 while going 2-3 in those games. Going back to the last 10, they are 4-6 and 4-6 ATS.

In their most recent game, San Antonio was unable to come home with a victory against the Mavericks, losing by a score of 137-128. Despite Keldon Johnson leading the team with 27 points, the Spurs were unable to overcome their status as 4-point underdogs. The Spurs also ended up with an ATS loss in the game.

The Historicals

In the most recent game between the two teams, the Grizzlies picked up a 124-122 win over the Spurs. However, heading into the game, Memphis was favored to win by 6.0 points, giving the Spurs and ATS victory. So far this season, the Grizzlies have a record of 3-0 vs the Spurs. When looking at how these teams have performed vs the spread in recent matchups, the Spurs have an ATS mark of 4-1. Yet, the Grizzlies have averaged more points per game in these contests, at 122, compared to San Antonio at 122. The over-under record in these same games is 2-2-1, with the teams combining for an average of 238 points per game.

Analysis

This season, Memphis is among the league leaders in scoring, averaging 115.7 points per game. So far, the Grizzlies are also one of the more up-tempo teams in the league, sitting at 100.8 possessions per game. Memphis’ 3-point shooting numbers are below the league average, as they have hit just 34.4% of their looks from deep. On average, the team gets up 33.5 3-point shots per game, placing them 14th in the NBA. Defensively, the Grizzlies have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 109.93 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.88%.

A significant injury to take into account for today’s game is that Ja Morant will be missing from Memphis’s lineup, as reported on the injury report. Desmond Bane will need to assume the role of primary scorer for the team. This season, Bane has been averaging 21.1 points per game for the Grizzlies.

For the season, San Antonio is averaging just 112.5 points per game, which is 24th in the league. This below-average production has come despite being one of the faster-paced teams in the NBA (4th). San Antonio has struggled with their 3-point shot this season, as they are currently ranked just 24th in 3-point shooting percentage at 34.5%. In addition, they are near the bottom of the league in attempts, at just 31.3 attempts per contest. Defense has been a struggle for San Antonio, as they are currently allowing 113.04 points per game. In terms of their 3-point defense, opposing teams have hit 35.84% of their looks from deep, placing the Spurs 20th in the NBA.

Going into today’s game, Keldon Johnson is the leading scorer for the San Antonio team with an average of 21.7 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 44.8%. The team’s second top scorer is Tre Jones, who is averaging 12.6 points per game.

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Betting Trends

• Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
• Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• Spurs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Spurs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The San Antonio Spurs, who are supposed to be tanking, have played really well in three of their last four games. The Grizzlies haven’t been playing well without Ja Morant. I’m riding with the Spurs as a +7.5 home underdog, who might just be looking to close the season out strong, based on their recent performance!