Golden State Warriors (21-52) vs. Utah Jazz (49-26) Energy Solutions Arena, Salt Lake City, UT 10 PM EST Wednesday March 31, 2010 on ESPN
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Point Spread: Warriors +13/Jazz -13
Over/Under: 232.5
Tonight the Utah Jazz host the Golden State Warriors in a Western Conference match that is important to Utah for playoff positioning. The Warriors can just play spoiler, as they will get another high draft pick after yet another losing season.
Utah is all alone in 3rd place in the West, but only lead 4th place Phoenix by game and 5th place Denver by 1 game and only trail 2nd place Dallas by game. The higher the seed that the Jazz have in the playoffs the better since they will host more playoff games, which is vital for them. Utah has the 3rd best home record in the Western Conference, but is only 1 game over .500 on the road.
Utah has won 2 in a row and is 7-3 in their last 10 games and Golden State is coming off a win and is 4-6 in their last 10 games.
This season the Jazz are 30-8 at home and the Warriors are 5-30 on the road.
Even though the Jazz have the best ATS record in the league the Warriors rank 4th and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games between these 2 teams.
The Warriors will have to light up the scoreboard tonight and even though they have been doing so all season as the 2nd highest scoring team in the league they are giving up the most points per game this season.
The high-scoring Warriors’ offense will be without their leading scorer tonight, as SG Monta Ellis (25.5 ppg) is out for the game with an illness.
The Warriors are the worst rebounding team in the league and they will have to knock down their shots and shoot a high FG% or they will be in trouble. They can still win even if the Jazz dominate the defensive glass, but if they dominate the boards on the offensive end Golden State is in big trouble. The Warriors have to keep Carlos Boozer (11.2 rpg) off the offensive boards and not allow him to give the Jazz 2nd chance opportunities.
The Jazz won their last game beating the New York Knicks 103-98 on Monday night. The high scorer for Utah in the game was Carlos Boozer going for 26 points on 11/16 shooting and he grabbed 14 rebounds. For the game the Jazz shot well going 41/80 from the floor for a FG% of 51.3%. On defense the Jazz allowed the Knicks to shoot 35/77 for a FG% of 45.5%.
The Warriors also won their last game beating the L.A. Clippers 121-103 on Sunday. The high scorer for Golden State in the game was Reggie Williams going for 25 points on 11/22 shooting. For the game the Warriors shot 47/88 for a solid FG% of 53.4%. On D the Warriors actually played decent holding the Clippers to 34/90 shooting for a FG% of 37.8%.
This season the Warriors rank 2nd in the league in scoring (108.6 ppg) and the Jazz rank 4th (103.8 ppg). On defense the Jazz rank a respectable 12th in opponents’ points allowed (98 ppg) while the Warriors rank dead last (112.3 ppg). The Jazz have been a much better team on the boards this season with a rebounding differential of +2.6 while the Warriors are at -9.2 rpg, which is the worst in the league.
According to the Sagarin NBA ratings the Jazz rank 4th (94.86) and the Warriors rank 25th (85-91).
Golden State is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games, 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games, and 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a win.
Golden State has an Over record of 8-3 in their last 11 games and an Under record of 7-3 in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning home record.
Utah is 22-7-2 ATS in their last 31 home games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against teams with a losing road record, and 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS loss.
Utah has an Under record of 5-2 in their last 7 games and an Under record of 4-0 in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record.
On the injury front SG Monta Ellis is day-to-day for Golden State and SF Andrei Kirilenko is day-to-day for Utah.
Jason’s Pick: The spread could go either way. I do believe that there’s good value in the UNDER 232., especially if Ellis is indeed out as he’s .