Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns: Spread Prediction & Analysis”

Golden State Warriors (12-6 SU, 11-7 ATS) vs. Phoenix Suns (10-8 SU, 6-12 ATS)

When: Saturday, November 30th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Footprint Center, AZ, Phoenix

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: GS +3.5/Pho -3.5

Total: 232.5

Money Line: Golden State Warriors +136/-162

Notable Injuries

Warriors

• Stephen Curry (Questionable) Knee
• Andrew Wiggins (Questionable) Ankle
• Gary Payton II (Probable) Adductor
• De’Anthony Melton (Out) ACL
• Jonathan Kuminga (Probable) Illness

Suns

• Bradley Beal (Questionable) Calf
• Jusuf Nurkic (Questionable) Quadriceps
• Collin Gillespie (Out) Ankle

The Golden State Warriors will travel to Phoenix to take on the Suns in a Western Pacific division matchup. The Suns are favored by 3.5 points and have a moneyline of -162. The over/under line is set at 232.5.

The Warriors are currently on a three-game losing streak and have a record of 12-6. They are 3rd in the Western Conference and 1st in the Pacific Division. The Suns are 10-8 and are 9th in the West and 4th in the Pacific.

Recent Form

The Warriors fell to 12-6 on the season after a 105-101 home loss to the Thunder on Wednesday. Golden State entered the game as +4.5 point underdogs and managed to cover the spread, but the combined score of 206 points fell well short of the 224.5-point total.

Oklahoma City’s 10-0 run early in the game put the Warriors on their heels, but Golden State fought back, outscoring the Thunder 33-22 in the 3rd quarter. However, the Thunder edged the Warriors 21-18 in the 4th to seal the win.

The Suns dropped to 10-8 on the season after a 127-117 home loss to the Nets on Wednesday. Phoenix, favored by 9.5 points, not only lost the game but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game reached 244, well over the 220.5 O/U line.

Brooklyn went on a 12-0 run, turning a 71-66 deficit into a 78-71 lead. The Suns were down 96-84 heading into the 4th quarter and couldn’t complete the comeback despite outscoring the Nets 33-31 in the final period.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed against the spread in recent matchups, the Suns hold the edge at 3-2. However, the average scoring margin in these matchups has been tight, sitting at just 0 points per game. In these contests, they averaged a combined 228 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

The Warriors shot just 35.7% from the field in their 105-101 loss to the Thunder, with their three-point shooting also struggling at 32%. Despite the poor shooting, they connected on 16 threes in the game.

Jonathan Kuminga led the Warriors with 19 points, scoring 10 in the 2nd quarter and nine more in the 3rd. Buddy Hield hit five threes, finishing with 17 points, while Andrew Wiggins added 16, with 11 of those coming in the opening quarter.

Despite a tough 1st quarter where the Warriors gave up 39 points, they tightened up defensively for the rest of the game, allowing just 23 points in the 2nd, 22 in the 3rd, and 21 in the 4th. Overall, they held the Thunder to 105 points on 45% shooting.

Golden State did a great job defending the three, limiting Oklahoma City to 11 made threes on 29% shooting. The Warriors also sent the Thunder to the line 26 times, where they hit 16 free throws. Defensively, the Warriors recorded seven steals and six blocks.

Devin Booker led the Suns with 31 points in their 127-117 loss to the Nets, adding 11 points in the opening quarter and another 9 in the 4th. Kevin Durant contributed 30 points, with 11 coming in the 3rd quarter and another 9 in the final period.

As a team, the Suns shot 53.2% from the field, hitting 12 threes at a 38.7% clip. Bradley Beal added 17 points, scoring 6 in both the 2nd and 4th quarters.

The Suns struggled defensively against the Nets, allowing 127 points on 50% shooting. Brooklyn scored at least 29 points in every quarter, including 34 in the 1st and 33 in the 3rd.

Phoenix had trouble defending the three, as the Nets hit 18 threes at a 42% clip. The Suns also sent Brooklyn to the line 22 times, where they made 21 free throws. Phoenix finished with 34 defensive rebounds, seven steals, and five blocks.

Betting Trends

• In their last three games away from home, the Warriors have a record of 1-2 while going 0-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 101 points per game in this stretch.
• Through their last ten home contests, the Suns offense has averaged 108 points per game while allowing an average of 115. Phoenix posted an overall record of 4-6 while going 4-6 ATS.
• In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Warriors have a strong straight-up record of 3-2. In addition, their ATS record was 4-1 in these scenarios.
• In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Suns have a straight-up record of 8-2 and an ATS mark of 3-7.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

This is one game where you are definitely going to need to keep a close eye on the injury report, as Steph Curry, Andrew Wiggins, and Bradley Beal are all questionable. Currently, the Suns are favored by -3.5 at home, but I see Golden State bouncing back from their loss to OKC on Wednesday with a road win over the Suns. With the money line sitting at +136, I like Golden State straight-up.