Golden State Warriors (66-26 SU, 39-52 ATS) vs. Houston Rockets (73-19 SU, 47-44-1 ATS)
Time: Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 9:00 PM EDT
Where: Toyota Center – Houston, TX
TV: TNT
by Keith, Professional NBA Handicapper, Predictem
Odds Golden State -105, Houston -115
Point Spread: Houston -1
Total Line: 224
It’s been billed as a heavyweight contest, and we have been waiting all year to see it. Now, the time is here. The Golden State Warriors will face off with the Houston Rockets for Game One of the Western Conference Finals. The game set to tip-off at the Toyota Center on Monday, May 14th, 2018 at 9:00 PM ET. The affair will be broadcasted to audiences on TNT for national viewing. The contest pits the two best teams in the West against each other. This series has been as competitive as it gets. The two teams have split the last four meetings between each other, with two wins per side. In the last meeting in January, the Rockets defeated the Warriors 116-108 at home.
Both teams enter into this series off of five-game victories in the Conference Semifinals. For the Warriors, they took down the New Orleans Pelicans in dominant fashion. The Warriors were able to dispatch Anthony Davis and company with relative ease. The Rockets come in off a defeat of the feisty Utah Jazz. Previous to this, Golden State swept San Antonio, and Houston defeated Minnesota in five games, respectively.
There are several betting trends that we are keying on in Game One. To begin, the Rockets are 39-8 SU in Houston. Golden State is a respectable 31-14 SU on the road. In meetings between the two sides, Golden State is 6-4 ATS in the last ten meetings. Moreover, the away team ironically enough is 7-3 SU in the previous ten contests between these two sides.
Golden State is the defending NBA Champions and with such a distinction comes a competitive edge. The bottom line is The City has gone to three straight NBA Finals, and they were successful in two of them. Given the know-how and personnel featured on this club, the Warriors with points offer tremendous appeal to many takers.
The Rockets were designed to defeat Golden State, and it seems they have the weapons to do just that. James Harden has put together an MVP-worthy campaign in 2017-2018. With the help of one of the game’s greatest point guards in Chris Paul, the duo can be a real problem for Golden State to tackle. Let us also forget the Rockets also have a sixth-man in Eric Gordon who also may be getting the nod for the best in NBA in this role.
From out of the chute, there has been a lean on the Warriors reflected in the market falling by a point since the open. In addition to this, we have seen 67% of the consensus like the Warriors in public forums. Furthermore, 61% of the public cash and 70% of the ticket action is on Golden State in this market. In Over/Under markets, we have seen the figure drop by a point to reflect steam on the Under. To counter this, 75% of the cash and 76% of the tickets are currently in on the Over.
Seldom do we see an opportunity to get the team with the best record in the NBA at such a qualitative price. Thanks to the premiums that Golden State inflicts on takers, we have that opportunity here in Game One. Houston plays at a freakishly-good level at home, and that is why the market has made the Warriors a dog here in Game One. However, to many, this seems like an early present. Usually, when such a scenario materializes, it is often a set up for backers to suffer a loss. Despite a prolific record, Golden State has been grossly overvalued this season. Such comes with their pedigree, but chances are they are in this spot, as well.
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