Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Spread Pick

Golden State Warriors (42-34 SU, 42-33 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (46-30 SU, 44-32 ATS)

When: Friday, April 5th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: American Airlines Center, TX, Dallas

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: GS +5.5/Dal -5.5

Total: 228.5

Money Line: Golden State Warriors +170/-206

Notable Injuries

Warriors

• Dario Saric (Questionable) Knee
• Jonathan Kuminga (Questionable) Knee

Mavericks

• Josh Green (Out) Ankle
• Greg Brown III (Questionable) Personal
• Dereck Lively II (Out) Leg

In a Western Conference matchup, the 10th place Warriors (42-34) travel to take on the 5th place Mavericks (46-30) at the American Airlines Center. Golden State comes into the game riding a 6-game win streak.

Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 ET and the game will be televised on NBCS. The Mavericks are favored by 5.5 points and the over/under line is set at 228.5 points.

Recent Form

The Warriors come into today’s game as 5.5-point underdogs and are 9-18 straight-up as underdogs this season. In their last two games as the underdog, they have gone 1-1 and have a scoring differential of -3.4 points per game.

Golden State has a 37-38-1 record against the spread this season and have covered in their last two games. As the underdog on the road, they are 17-9 ATS and have an average scoring differential of +4.4 PPG.

In terms of their O/U record for the season, the Warriors are 37-38-1. Today’s line of 228.5 is lower than the average O/U line in their games (231.5), and they have a record of 47-28-1 in games with higher O/U lines.

Golden State’s last game finished with a combined score of 243 points, easily going over the O/U line of 227.5. They defeated the Rockets by a score of 133-110 and covered the spread as 3-point favorites.

With a record of 42-34, the Warriors are currently 10th in the Western Conference. They have won six straight games and are 23-15 on the road this season.

Today, the Mavericks are favored by 5.5 points against the Warriors. This season, the Mavericks have been favored in 47 of their 76 games, going 35-12 in those games. As the favorite, they have an average scoring margin of +6.9 points per game.

In the Western Conference, the Mavericks are currently in 5th place with a record of 46-30. In games against other Western Conference teams, they are 29-20 compared to 17-10 in non-conference games.

Dallas has won five straight games at home and has an average scoring margin of +4.1 points per game at home. Against the spread at home, they are 19-19 this season and 30-17 as the favorite.

The Mavericks’ O/U record for the season is 35-41, and the under has hit in their last two games. Today’s O/U line is 228.5, and their games this season have averaged 234.2 points per game.

In their last game, the Mavericks defeated the Hawks by a score of 109-95. They were favored by 12 points in that game and covered the spread. The O/U line for that game was 227.5.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed against the spread in recent matchups, the Mavericks hold the edge at 4-1. However, the average scoring margin in these matchups has been tight, sitting at just 1 point per game. The over-under record in these same games is 3-2, with the teams combining for an average of 229 points per game.

Analysis

The Warriors are one of the league’s top-scoring teams, averaging 118 points per game (7th). On the road, they are even better, scoring 118.4 points per game (3rd).

Golden State is one of the league’s best three-point shooting teams, making an average of 14.7 threes per game (3rd). Overall, they are shooting 37% from beyond the arc (6th).

When it comes to pace, the Warriors are 11th in the league at 99.5 possessions per game. In terms of assists, they are 4th in the NBA, with an average of 29.2 per game.

So far, the Warriors’ defense is ranked 17th in the league at 115.6 points per contest. Golden State’s defense is currently forcing 13.7 turnovers per game, which is 23rd in the league. Additionally, they enter the game ranked 27th in blocked shots, with an average of 4.3 rejections per game.

This season, the Mavericks are scoring 118.3 points per game, which is 6th in the league. At home, they are averaging 119.0 points per game.

So far, the Mavericks have outscored the NBA scoring average in 59.2% of their games. In terms of pace, they are 10th in the league at 99.5 possessions per game.

When it comes to shooting, the Mavericks are 11th in field goal percentage at 48%. They are also 5th in two-point shooting percentage at 56%.

Coming into today’s game, the Mavericks’ defense is giving up an average of 115.8 points per contest. Inside the arc, the Mavericks defense is giving up a shooting percentage of 54.6% and 36.7% from three-point territory.

Betting Trends

• In their last three road games, Golden State has averaged 121 points per game while allowing 106. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-0 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Dallas has an ATS record of 4-1 while averaging 115 per game. The team went 4-1 overall in these games.
• In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Warriors have a strong straight up record of 3-2. In addition, their ATS record was 3-2 in these scenarios.
• Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Mavericks have a straight up record of 9-1. But, their mark vs the spread was just 8-2.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Both teams come into this one having played last night, and both sides picked up important wins. With their six-game winning streak, the Warriors have given themselves some breathing room over the Rockets for the final spot in the play-in tournament. However, they would love to stay hot and make a push for the 8th or 9th seed. On the other side, the Mavs are just one game ahead of the Suns and Pelicans for the 5th seed. This should be a fun one to watch, and even though they are on the road for back-to-back nights, I like the Warriors to keep this one close and like them at +5.5.