Game 4 Prediction: Knicks vs. 76ers Showdown

New York Knicks (50-32 SU, 46-38 ATS) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (47-35 SU, 51-34 ATS)

When: Sunday, April 28th, 1:00 PM (ET)

Where: Wells Fargo Center, PA, Philadelphia

TV: ABC

Point Spread: NY +4.5/Phi -4.5

Total: 209.5

Money Line: New York Knicks +160/-194

Notable Injuries

Knicks

• Julius Randle (Out) Shoulder
• Mitchell Robinson (Questionable) Ankle

76ers

• Joel Embiid (Questionable) Knee
• Robert Covington (Out) Knee

Game four of this Eastern Conference first-round series between the Knicks and 76ers is set for 1:00 PM ET at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. The Knicks currently lead the series 2-1 and are the 2 seed in the East, while the 76ers come in as the 7 seed. Sunday’s matchup is being televised on ABC, and the over/under line is sitting at 209.5 points. The 76ers are favored by 4.5 points and are -194 on the money line. The Knicks are at +160 on the money line.

Joel Embiid had a huge game for the 76ers in their most recent game against the Knicks, as he put up 50 points and hit five threes. Philadelphia won the game 125-114, and they were favored by 5.5 points heading into the game. The 76ers had a big 3rd quarter, outscoring the Knicks 43-27. Embiid’s 50 points were part of a strong shooting night for the 76ers, as they shot 54.7% from the field.

Jalen Brunson had a big game for the Knicks, as he finished with 39 points and 13 assists. The over/under line for the game was 204.5 points, and the teams easily surpassed that with 239 combined points. The 76ers also hit 15 threes as a team, and Tyrese Maxey added 25 points.

Recent Form

The Knicks have an O/U record of 38-46-1 this season, with an average combined scoring total of 221 points per game. Today’s O/U line of 209.5 is lower than 73 of their previous games.

In games with higher over/under lines than 209.5, the Knicks have gone 34-38-1. This year, their games have averaged an O/U line of 221.3.

New York’s ATS record for the season is 46-38, and they have failed to cover the spread in their last two games. On the road, they are 23-18 against the spread.

Looking at their record, the Knicks are 50-32 overall, which is good for 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. Against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 35-17 and 12-5 in their division.

In their most recent game against the 76ers, the Knicks lost by a score of 125-114. They were 5.5-point underdogs going into the game. The O/U line for that game was 204.5.

Today, the 76ers are favored by 4.5 points against the Knicks. This season, Philadelphia has been favored in 53 of their 82 games and have gone 40-13 in those games. As the favorite, they have won 11 straight games straight up and are 35-18 ATS.

At home, the 76ers have an average scoring margin of +5.0 points per game. This season, they are 27-16 at home and have won six straight games at home. Against the spread at home, they are 25-17 and 51-34 overall.

Philadelphia’s O/U record for the season is 45-41, with an average combined scoring of 225.7 points per game. In their last game against the Knicks, the teams combined for 239 points, and today’s O/U line is set at 209.5.

The 76ers are currently 7th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 47-35. In their last game, they beat the Knicks by a score of 125-114, covering the spread as 5.5-point favorites.

The Historicals

Across the last 5 matchups between the teams, Philadelphia has gone 3-2 vs the spread. However, the Knicks actually have a positive scoring margin in these games at +4 points per game. In these contests, they averaged a combined 198 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

Looking at Jalen Brunson’s last five games, he is averaging 31 points per game on 38.7% shooting. In these games, he also averaged 8.8 assists. For the season, he is averaging 28.7 points per game. Josh Hart has hit 50.8% of his shots over his last five games and 50% of his threes. This led to an average of 18.2 points and 10.2 rebounds.

New York is the slowest-paced team in the league this season, averaging 94.8 possessions per game. Their average of 112.8 points per game is 19th in the NBA. The Knicks have been a little better on the road, averaging 114.4 points per game compared to 111 at home.

So far this season, the Knicks have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, ranking 4th in points allowed per game at 108.3. On the road, New York is giving up 111.5 points per contest, which is 8th in the league. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, the Knicks are 14th overall at 47.1%.

Despite being 29th in blocked shots per game, New York is 5th in rebounds per game. However, on the defensive glass, they are just 21st in the league. In terms of steals, the Knicks are 19th in the NBA.

Over their last five games, opposing offenses have shot 48.1% from the field against the Knicks, which is 20th in the league during that stretch. In terms of made free throws allowed, New York is 21st in the league in their last five contests.

Joel Embiid has been carrying the 76ers offense of late, averaging 34 points and 10.2 rebounds in his last four games. Over his last five games, Tyrese Maxey is averaging 27.6 points per game on a shooting percentage of 48.6%. In these games, he hit an average of 3 threes per contest. Philadelphia will need to see more from Tobias Harris, as he is averaging just 11 points in his last five games, compared to his season average of 17.2 points per game.

Philadelphia comes into the game as the 15th ranked scoring offense, at 114.6 points per game. Their home scoring average of 115.4 points per contest is 14th in the league. The 76ers are 19th in both three-point attempts and three-point shooting percentage this season.

When it comes to defense, the 76ers have been one of the best units in the league this season, ranking 9th in points allowed per game at 111.4. Over their last five games, they have been even better, giving up just 103.8 points per contest.

On the season, opposing teams have made just 35.5% of their three-point attempts against the Sixers, which is the 6th best mark in the NBA. However, over their last five games, they have seen a slight dip in that area, allowing teams to shoot 36.9% from beyond the arc.

Overall, Philadelphia has done a great job of protecting the paint, ranking 5th in blocked shots per game at 6.0. They have also been able to force turnovers, as they come into tonight’s game 2nd in the league in steals per game at 8.5.

Betting Trends

• The Knicks are 3-2 ATS in their last road games and 3-2 straight-up.
• In their last ten games at home, the 76ers have a straight up record of 5-5 while going 8-2 vs. the spread. The team averaged 112 points per game in this stretch.
• Looking back on the team’s last five games as the underdog, the Knicks have a straight up record of 2-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 3-2.
• As the betting favorite, the 76ers have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight up record was 3-0.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

This Sixers vs Knicks series has been particularly chippy, with Joel Embiid being at the center of most of the altercations. So far, this has only seemed to fuel the Philadelphia big man, as he is coming off a 50-point performance and carried the Sixers to a win. However, I see the spread at -4.5 being too high and I see this one coming right down to the wire. My pick for game four is to take the Knicks at +4.5.