Friday Night NBA Betting: Bucks vs. Celtics Point Spread Pick

Milwaukee Bucks (11-10 SU, 8-12 ATS) vs. Boston Celtics (18-4 SU, 9-13 ATS)

When: Friday, December 6th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: TD Garden, MA, Boston

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Mil +7.5/Bos -7.5

Total: 228.5

Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks +249/-305

Notable Injuries

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Patella
• Khris Middleton (Probable) Ankle
• Taurean Prince (Probable) Patella
• MarJon Beauchamp (Questionable) Neck

Celtics

• Al Horford (Questionable) Toe
• Kristaps Porzingis (Questionable) Lower Leg
• Jayson Tatum (Questionable) Knee

The Milwaukee Bucks head to Boston to take on the Celtics in a game that tips off at 7:30 ET. The Celtics are favored by 7.5 points, and the over/under line is set at 228.5.

Boston is currently on a two-game winning streak and has the second-best record in the Eastern Conference at 18-4. Milwaukee is 11-10 and sits fifth in the East. ESPN will televise the game.

Recent Form

The Bucks dropped to 11-10 on the season after a 119-104 home loss to the Hawks on Wednesday. Milwaukee, who were -4.5 point favorites, not only lost the game but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 223, falling short of the 236.5 O/U line.

Atlanta’s 11-0 run turned the game around, taking the lead from 69-59 to 70-69. The Hawks then outscored the Bucks 32-24 in the 2nd quarter and 29-28 in the 3rd before holding Milwaukee to just 17 points in the 4th.

Boston improved to 18-4 on the season with a 130-120 win over the Pistons on Wednesday. Playing at home, the Celtics were favored by 12.5 points but didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game were 250, well over the 221.5-point line.

A 12-0 run early in the game helped Boston take control, extending the score from 7-4 to 19-4. They led 39-24 after the 1st quarter. Although the Pistons outscored the Celtics in the 2nd and 4th quarters, Boston’s lead heading into the 4th was enough to secure the win.

The Historicals

Over the last five head to head meetings, the Bucks have averaged 114 points per game compared to 109 for Boston. This has led to an ATS record of 3-2 for Milwaukee. In these contests, they averaged a combined 223 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 1-4.

Analysis

In their 119-104 loss to the Hawks, the Bucks shot 42.3% from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc, hitting 15 threes. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 31 points and 11 rebounds, shooting 57.1% from the field.

Damian Lillard also shot 57.1%, adding 25 points and five made threes at a 55.6% clip. Gary Trent Jr. contributed 11 points, making three threes at 33.3%.

The Bucks struggled defensively in the 1st and 2nd quarters, giving up 38 and 32 points, respectively, in their 119-104 loss to the Hawks. They tightened up in the 4th, allowing just 20 points, but it wasn’t enough to overcome the early damage.

Milwaukee did well in limiting Atlanta’s three-point shooting, holding them to 28% from beyond the arc with just nine threes made. The Bucks finished with seven steals and four blocks in the game.

Jaylen Brown led the Celtics with 28 points and nine assists in their win over the Pistons, scoring 16 in the first quarter. Kristaps Porzingis added 26 points, with eight coming in the 4th quarter. Sam Hauser contributed 20 points, including 14 in the 3rd quarter.

Boston hit 21 threes at a 39.6% rate, with Hauser connecting on 5 of them. The team shot 47.9% overall, with Payton Pritchard adding 12 of his 19 points in the final period.

Even with a shaky defensive performance, the Celtics managed to secure a win against the Pistons despite allowing 120 points. Boston gave up 24 points in the 1st quarter but struggled in the 2nd, allowing 34 points. The 3rd and 4th quarters saw the Celtics give up 30 and 32 points, respectively.

The Celtics allowed Detroit to shoot 51% from the field and 51% from three-point range, where the Pistons made 20 threes. Boston sent Detroit to the line 18 times, with the Pistons converting 14 free throws. The Celtics finished with 29 defensive rebounds, gave up eight offensive boards, and recorded 11 steals and seven blocks.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee has a 2-3 record in their last five road games. In this stretch, they averaged 111 points per game while allowing 111. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
• Although Boston has a straight-up record of 4-1 in their last five home games, they have not held up as well vs. the spread going 2-3. The team averaged 121 points per game in these games.
• The last three games that Milwaukee was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 1-2 straight up.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Celtics have a straight up record of 9-1. Their record vs the spread in these games was 3-7.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

It looks like the Bucks might finally get the much-awaited debut of Khris Middleton after he has yet to play this season. Although I wouldn’t expect huge minutes from Middleton, he will help keep their rotations a little tighter, meaning some of their depth players, who don’t really deserve a lot of minutes, will go back to their planned roles. Although Boston should win this one, I do like Milwaukee at +7.5 in this one.