Free Pick: Washington Wizards vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Washington Wizards (22-31 SU, 23-30 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (39-13 SU, 30-19-3 ATS)
When: Wednesday, February 6th, 2019 – 8:00 PM ET
Where: Fiserv Forum – Milwaukee, WI
TV: ESPN

Point Spread: WAS +11.5 / MIL -11.5 (Bookmaker)
Total: 230

Power Rankings: Milwaukee -17

Takeaways From Washington and Milwaukee’s Most Recent Games

The Wizards come into this game on the heels of a two-game losing streak. Most recently, Washington suffered a 137-129 upset at home at the hands of the visiting Atlanta Hawks on Monday. Washington closed as a seven-point favorite and has failed to produce a cover in four of its last five meetings.

The Milwaukee Bucks continue to be the best team in the league in terms of wins and losses. Milwaukee is presently riding a four-game winning streak capped off most recently by a 113-94 victory against the Brooklyn Nets when they traveled to face them on Monday. The Bucks closed as a 7.5-point favorite and have produced an equally impressive cover streak that also extended to four games to match its current winning streak.

How the Public is Betting the Washington-Milwaukee Game

Presently, 69% of the consensus like the Bucks here spotting the points. On an opposite note, the market has actually descended by a point from its opening number of Milwaukee -12.5 to its current position of the Bucks laying 11.5 points. This trend reflects the action coming in on the Wizards contrary to what the consensus figures show.

The Historicals

The two teams have met twice this season in D.C. and have split the series with a win each. Most recently, the Bucks went to work on the Wizards when they met four days ago and defeated them 131-115 to produce an easy cover as a six-point favorite.

Injury Concerns

It is well documented that the Wizards will be missing their Point Guard John Wall who has been sidelined thanks to a season-ending injury to his Achilles tendon. For Milwaukee, the Bucks step into this contest in relatively good health.

Rest Advantages and Concerns

The Wizards find themselves on the road here for one game before returning to D.C. to host the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday. Contrarily, Milwaukee wrapped up a long five-game road trip but will only be home for this one game before heading back out to Dallas on Friday to face the Mavericks. Both teams enter on the same amount of rest.

How Will The Wizards Fare In One of the NBA’s Most Raucous Settings?

Washington has struggled mightily on the road this season as they are just 6-20 SU away from home. They will struggle to find any refuge in Milwaukee as the Bucks are a fright to face on their own court. At the Fiserv Forum, the Bucks are a remarkable 22-4 SU which offers some grim news for the visiting Wizards. The Wizards have two advantages that they will need hone to stay competitive in this match. Washington owns advantages in turnovers, and their bench gives them a significant edge as it curates 6.2 more points per game compared to Milwaukee. Washington’s bench averages 37.5 points per game while the Bucks’ bench produces 31.3 points per contest. However, the question remains will the Wizards be able to hang around long enough for these variables to come into play.

Will Milwaukee Hone Significant Advantages To Dominate Washington?

The Bucks are a serious problem for opponents when it comes to the shooting game. The Bucks are the best team in the NBA in limiting opponent field goal efficiency as opponents shoot just 42.9% against them. On the flip-side, the Deers are one of the best shooting teams offensively as they sit third in the NBA hitting 48% of their shots. The Bucks also wreak havoc in opponent free-throw percentage as they are the best in the league in that department as well. The opposition hits just 73.7% of their free throw attempts against Milwaukee. Coupling these narratives with the fact that the Bucks are the best offensive rebounding team in the NBA (averaging 49 offensive rebounds per contest), Milwaukee can use their home court advantage, ability to undermine opponent shooting, and physical presence on the boards to bully Washington who is already trembling at the thought of playing on the road. It only makes matter worse that Washington sits 29th overall in the NBA in scoring defense giving 116 points per game against Milwaukee’s second-ranked scoring offense (117.2 points per match). This one could very simply get out of hand.

Betting Trends

Between the two teams, one noteworthy trend has emerged. The Under is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two clubs.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Milwaukee -11.5

According to other betting sites, the Bucks are supremely under-priced as they could be justified spotting upwards of six more points to the Wizards in this spot. Given how this is a potentially significant margin to find the favorites sold cheap, we urge bettors to take advantage of the NBA’s top team in the standings offered at a true discount price. The fact remains Milwaukee plays at an elite level on its own court while the Wizards have many documented troubles on the road. Moreover, Milwaukee finds itself in a position that is favorable historically. Teams that play their first home game after a long road-trip have a tendency to be quite lucrative. Oddly enough, the longer the road trip, the sweeter the chances of victory are when said team returns home. Given the fact the Bucks are argued by several to be significantly short-sold, the Deers are worth a gallop here spotting the points as they can demolish the Wizards.