Free Nuggets vs. Spurs Picks: Expert Analysis & Predictions

Denver Nuggets (19-14 SU, 14-18 ATS) vs. San Antonio Spurs (18-16 SU, 19-15 ATS)

When: Saturday, January 4th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Frost Bank Center, TX, San Antonio

TV: ALT2

Point Spread: Den -2.5/SA +2.5

Total: 237.5

Money Line: Denver Nuggets -138/+116

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Questionable) Calf
• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee
• DaRon Holmes II (Out) Achilles

Spurs

• Jeremy Sochan (Questionable) Back

At 8:00 ET, the San Antonio Spurs will host the Denver Nuggets in a Western Conference matchup. The Nuggets are favored by 2.5 points and have a moneyline of -138, while the Spurs are +116 on the moneyline. The over/under line is set at 237.5.

San Antonio comes into the game with a record of 18-16, good for 8th in the Western Conference. They are currently on a two-game win streak. Denver is 19-14 and sits 5th in the West. This game can be seen on ALT2.

Recent Form

The Nuggets fell to 19-14 on the season after a 113-110 home loss to the Spurs on Friday. Denver, favored by six points, not only lost the game but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game ended at 223, falling short of the 238.5 O/U line.

Denver went on a 10-0 run to take the lead, but after outscoring the Spurs 38-27 in the 3rd quarter, they couldn’t hold on in the 4th, where they were outscored 26-20.

San Antonio improved to 18-16 on the season with a 113-110 win over the Nuggets on Friday. The Spurs, who were +6 point underdogs, not only won the game but also covered the spread. The total score of 223 points fell short of the 238.5-point over/under line.

San Antonio took control in the 2nd quarter, outscoring Denver 28-22. However, the Nuggets responded with a 10-0 run and a strong 3rd quarter, leaving the Spurs trailing 90-87 going into the 4th. San Antonio’s defense stepped up in the final period, holding Denver to 20 points while scoring 26 to secure the win.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed vs the spread in recent matchups, the Spurs have an ATS mark of 3-2. Yet, the Nuggets have averaged more points per game in these contests, at 117, compared to San Antonio, at 117. The over-under record in these same games is 2-3, with the teams combining for an average of 230 points per game.

Analysis

Nikola Jokić put up 41 points, 18 rebounds, and nine assists in the Nuggets’ 113-110 loss to the Spurs, shooting 41.7% from the field and hitting three threes at 30%. Michael Porter Jr. added 22 points, connecting on four threes at 50% shooting, while Jamal Murray contributed 14 points, making two threes at 40%.

As a team, the Nuggets hit 15 threes, shooting 38.5% from deep, but struggled overall with a 43.3% field goal percentage. Jokić had a big 3rd quarter, scoring 18 points, while Porter added 8 in the period.

Despite a strong defensive effort in the 4th quarter, where they allowed just 26 points, the Nuggets couldn’t overcome their early struggles, giving up 32 points in the 1st quarter in a 113-110 loss to the Spurs. Denver held San Antonio to 46% shooting overall.

From beyond the arc, the Nuggets limited the Spurs to 13 made threes on 36% shooting. Denver also sent San Antonio to the free-throw line just 13 times, where they hit 8. The Nuggets recorded seven steals and seven blocks in the game.

Victor Wembanyama powered the Spurs to a 113-110 win over the Nuggets, finishing with 35 points and 18 rebounds, shooting 63.6% from the field and hitting four threes at a 66.7% clip. Devin Vassell added 18 points, and Keldon Johnson contributed 16, knocking down three threes.

The Spurs shot 46.5% from the field and made 13 threes at 36.1%. Wembanyama scored 13 points in the 2nd quarter, while Keldon Johnson added 13 of his own in the same period. Julian Champagnie also chipped in 9 of his 15 points in the opening quarter.

Despite a tough 3rd quarter where they gave up 38 points, the Spurs’ defense came through in the 4th, allowing just 20 points to help secure the win. Overall, they held the Nuggets to 110 points on 43% shooting.

San Antonio sent Denver to the line 16 times, where they made 11 free throws. The Spurs also recorded 42 defensive rebounds, giving up 10 offensive boards, and finished with four steals and three blocks.

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Nuggets have a straight-up record of 5-5 while going 4-6 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 123 points per game in these contests.
• When looking at their past ten home matchups, San Antonio has an ATS record of 7-3 while averaging 109 per game. The team went 5-5 overall in these games.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Spurs have a straight-up record of 3-7. Their record vs the spread in these games was 6-4.
• As the betting favorite, the Nuggets have an ATS mark of just 5-5 in their last ten games. Denver posted a straight-up mark of 6-4 in these matchups.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

This Nuggets vs Spurs matchup is the best game on tonight’s slate, with the Nuggets favored by -2.5 on the road. These teams just played last night, and San Antonio pulled off the road win. However, I see Denver returning the favor tonight, and I like them to cover this number at -2.5.