Detroit Pistons vs. Golden State Warriors Pick ATS

Detroit Pistons (10-32 SU, 20-22-0 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (31-12 SU, 24-17-2 ATS)
When: Tuesday, January 18th, 2022, 10:00 pm (ET)
Where: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
TV: NBA TV

Point Spread: DET +14.5/GSW -14.5 (Opened at 14.5 at WagerWeb)
Total: 215.5 (Opened at 215.5)
Money Line: DET +750/GSW -2150
Power Rating: GSW -15

Probable Starting Lineups

Detroit Pistons: PG Lillian Hayes, SG Cade Cunningham, SF Hamidou Diallo, PF Saddiq Bey, C Isaiah Stewart
Golden State Warriors: PG Steph Curry, SG Klay Thompson, SF Andrew Wiggins, PF Otto Porter, C Kevon Looney

Key Injuries

Detroit Pistons: G Frank Jackson *Out* (Conditioning), G Rodney McGruder *Out* (Not with team), F Isaiah Livers *Out* (Conditioning), F Jerami Grant *Out* (Thumb), C Kelly Olynyk *Out* (Knee)

Golden State Warriors: G Moses Moody *Questionable* (Knee), G Gary Payton *Questionable* (Back), F Draymond Green *Out* (Calf), C James Wiseman *Out* (Knee)

Recent Form

The Detroit Pistons head into this matchup against the Warriors with a 10-32 record and sit 14th in the Eastern Conference. Sitting at the bottom of the East with no trends pointing towards a bid in the play-in tournament, the Pistons will eye yet another lottery pick in the up-and-coming draft. While the team has seen growth in Cade Cunningham, who is their first pick from last year’s draft, this team is still in full rebuild mode and needs a few more pieces to be relevant again. Despite just ten wins on the season, the Pistons were able to build some confidence in their last handful of games. In fact, the Pistons come in as winners of three of their last five games, including wins over the Raptors and Jazz. Last time on the floor, however, Detroit was blown out in a 135-108 final against the Suns. Even though he has missed almost half of their games this season, Jerami Grant leads the young Pistons squad, averaging 20.1 PPG. Detroit is the 29th ranked scoring offense, only ahead of the Thunder, averaging 101.4 PPG. Defensively, the Pistons are the 24th best team, allowing 111.3 PPG.

The Golden State Warriors head into this matchup with a 31-12 record and are 2nd in the Western Conference standings. Through the first few months of the season, the Warriors seemed almost invincible, holding the top spot both on offense and defense for a period of time. Since the turn of the calendar, we’ve seen a much different Warriors team that has issues to sort out on both sides of the court. Initially, the basketball world feared Klay Thompson’s return to the lineup, almost seeming to be the one missing piece to put the Warriors on the top of the NBA. Unfortunately for them, that hasn’t been the case, as he is averaging less than 14 points a game in his four games played. In addition to his slow start, Steph Curry has seen what appears to be one of the coldest stretches in his career. In January, Curry has been shooting 35.4% from the floor, which is a full 5% less than his mark in December. On the defensive side, they’ve been sliding as well in the absence of Draymond Green, allowing 112.3 PPG in their last four contests. Hosting the Pistons tonight couldn’t have come at a better time to allow this team to get their confidence back. Despite his cold stretch, Steph Curry leads the team in scoring with 26.3 PPG this season. After being among the top teams for the first few months, the Warriors have fallen to the 12th best scoring offense, averaging 109.9 PPG. Defensively, they’ve managed to hold onto the number one spot, giving up just 102.0 PPG.

Pistons on the Road

As a whole, the Pistons’ season has been a tough go, but the road hasn’t been friendly to them with a 3-18 record thus far. One of their three road wins did come in upset fashion, though, as just a few weeks ago, the Pistons upset the Bucks 115-106. Coming into this game as 14.5-point underdogs, the odds are giving the Pistons a lot of room to cover, and their recent trends show that rolling with them may not be a bad bet. Though they’ve been on the wrong side of some lopsided games, the Pistons have shown a short memory and show up the next game by going 4-0 ATS following a double-digit loss at home. From a broader spectrum, the Pistons are also 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss. Coming into Chase Center against a Warriors team who can be lethal if they sort things out won’t be an easy task to cover, but this young squad has shown that they bounce back early and often following big losses.

Warriors at Home

The Warriors head home after a 20-point loss last time out against the Timberwolves. Luckily for the Warriors, they’ve been dominant at home this season with an 18-3 record. Though getting the win is the ultimate goal each time on the floor, covering has been an issue for them recently. The Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games, which includes five straight-up losses. Turning around on a short schedule has also been a problem for Golden State this season, as they are 0-5 ATS when playing on just one day of rest. Being 14.5-point favorites means a total collapse would have to happen to lose this game outright, but given their recent trends and offensive slump, a 15-point win over a young team with nothing to lose may have me leaning with the road team against the spread in this one.

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The Historicals

Tuesday night will be the second time these teams meet this season. The first contest back in November ended with the Warriors on top in a close 105-102 final. Dating back to the last few years, the Warriors come in winners of three straight and four of the last five.

How the Public is Betting the Pistons vs. Warriors

56% are betting the Pistons against the spread.
51% are wagering on the game to go under the posted total of 215.5.

Betting Trends Worth Noting

• The Detroit Pistons are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss.
• The Detroit Pistons are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
• The Golden State Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
• The Golden State Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.
• Under is 4-1-1 in the Warriors’ last six home games vs. teams with a losing road record.
• Over is 4-1 in the last five games played between the Pistons and Warriors at Golden State.

Collin’s Pick for Pistons/Warriors

This cross-conference matchup is between two teams at opposite ends of their conference. The Pistons look to build their confidence each time on the floor and have shown they can bounce back and keep games closer than the odds give them following a blowout loss. While the Warriors come in as heavy favorites, their recent scoring slump raises some concerns. Without Draymond Green in the lineup once again, the Warriors will also be without a key player on the defensive side of the court. As 14.5-point favorites, I have little doubt the Warriors can get their 19th home win of the season, but their recent trends haven’t convinced me that they can cover this large of a margin. Take the Detroit Pistons to cover the 14.5-point spread.