Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline Pick

Denver Nuggets (36-17 SU, 22-29 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (34-19 SU, 20-33 ATS)

When: Monday, February 12th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee

TV: BSW

Point Spread: Den -1.5/Mil +1.5

Total: 232.5

Money Line: Denver Nuggets -118/-103

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Questionable) Hamstring
• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee
• Michael Porter Jr. (Probable) Knee

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Knee
• Khris Middleton (Out) Ankle
• Damian Lillard (Probable) Ankle

At 8:00 ET, the Milwaukee Bucks host the Denver Nuggets in a non-conference matchup at Fiserv Forum. The Nuggets (-118) are 1.5-point favorites over the Bucks (-103) and the over/under line is 232.5.

Denver is 36-17 and sits fourth in the Western Conference, while Milwaukee is 34-19 and third in the East. The game will be televised on BSW.

Recent Form

The Nuggets are 36-17 this season, which is good for 3rd place in the Western Conference and 4th in the West. Today, they are favored by 1.5 points on the road.

Denver’s O/U record for the season is 19-33-1, and 37 of their games have had lower over/under lines than today’s (232.5). On average, their games have combined for 225.6 points.

In their last game, the Nuggets lost to the Kings by a score of 135-106. They were 3-point underdogs going into the game, and the O/U line was 230.5.

Overall, the Nuggets are 22-29 against the spread this season, going 10-17 ATS on the road. As the favorite, they are 19-25 ATS and have covered the spread in five straight games.

In Western Conference games, the Nuggets are 20-12 compared to 16-5 in non-conference games. So far, their O/U record vs. the West is 14-22-1.

In their last game, the Bucks easily covered the spread as 16-point favorites with a 120-84 win over the Hornets. The game’s over/under line was 229 points.

This season, the Bucks have an O/U record of 29-24, and their games have averaged 242.2 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 232.5.

Milwaukee is 0-6 straight-up as the underdog this season and has lost five straight games against the spread as the underdog. As the underdog, they are 1-5 ATS this season.

In the Eastern Conference, the Bucks are currently in 3rd place with a record of 34-19. In games against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 25-12 compared to 9-7 against the West.

Against the spread, the Bucks are 11-17 at home and 9-16 on the road. Their ATS record as the underdog is 9-16 on the road and 1-5 overall.

In their last two games, the Bucks have covered the spread as favorites. Overall, they are 20-33 ATS this season.

The Historicals

In terms of betting, Denver has an ATS record of 4-1 in the previous 5 matchups vs Milwaukee. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +9 points per game in favor of the Nuggets. The over-under record in these same games is 2-3, with the teams combining for an average of 225 points per game.

Analysis

When it comes to scoring, the Nuggets are 18th in the league at 114.6 points per game. However, their scoring has been much better at home (119.5) compared to on the road (110.2).

So far this season, the Nuggets have outscored the NBA scoring average in 45.3% of their games. In terms of pace, Denver is the slowest team in the league, averaging just 95.8 possessions per game.

When it comes to shooting, the Nuggets are 6th in field goal percentage at 49%. However, they are just 26th in free throw attempts and 28th in three-point attempts.

So far this season, the Nuggets defense has been performing well, ranking 6th in the NBA at 111.0 points allowed per contest. The Denver defense has allowed opponents to shoot 36.2% from beyond the arc this season. Opposing teams are also hitting 47.0% of their field goal attempts vs. Denver.

The Bucks are one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA this season, ranking 2nd in scoring at 122.9 points per game. Interestingly, they have actually scored more points on the road (120.9) than at home (124.7).

In terms of pace, the Bucks are 4th in the league at 101.5 possessions per game. This has helped them get up the 7th most three-point attempts in the NBA, with an average of 37.8 per game.

Overall, Milwaukee is 5th in field goal percentage at 49%. They have also been one of the best teams at getting to the free-throw line, ranking 2nd in attempts (26.1) and 3rd in makes (20.1).

The Bucks’ defense is presently ranked 23rd in the league, allowing an average of 119.3 points per contest. So far this season, the Bucks’ defense has struggled with fouls, averaging 8th in fouls per contest. On average, opponents are getting to the line 23.1 times per game vs. Milwaukee.

Betting Trends

• In their last three road games, Denver has averaged 106 points per game while allowing 115. The team’s record in this stretch was 1-2 while going 2-1.
• Across their three previous home games, Milwaukee has an ATS mark of 1-2. Their straight up record in these matchups was 1-2 while averaging 114 points per game.
• Going back to their previous three games as the underdog, Milwaukee has an ATS mark of 0-3 while going 0-3 straight up.
• In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Nuggets have a straight up record of 9-1 and an ATS mark of 3-6-1.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Bucks and Nuggets faced off exactly two weeks ago, with the Nuggets winning by six. Even though the Bucks haven’t looked good of late, I do see them getting up for this and picking up the win. I like the Bucks on the money line.