Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Game 3 Betting Prediction

Denver Nuggets (53-29 SU, 54-44-1 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (44-38 SU, 46-56-2 ATS)

When: Wednesday, June 7th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: Kaseya Center, FL, Miami

TV: ABC

Point Spread: Den -2.5/Mia +2.5 (STOP laying -110 odds! You’re wasting money! Start laying only -105! at BAS Sportsbook! You’ll be so happy you made the switch!)

Total: 214.5

Money Line: Denver Nuggets -143/+120

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

Heat

• Victor Oladipo (Out) Knee
• Cody Zeller (Probable) Foot
• Tyler Herro (Out) Hand

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Denver is 53-29 overall. When taking to the road, Denver has a mark of 19-22 and a win percentage of 46%. Currently, the team is 1st in the Western Conference. So far, they are 54-44-1 vs the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs the spread, they are 4-1 in their past 5 games and 3-2 ATS. Over their past 10 games, they are 7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS.

Denver most recently lost to the Heat by a score of 111-108. The team high 41 points from Nikola Jokic was not enough to come away with the win. The Nuggets were 8-point favorites going into the game.

Heading into the game, Miami is 44-38 overall. When playing at home, Miami has a mark of 27-14 and a win percent of 66%. Currently, the team is 8th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 46-56-2 vs the spread. In Miami’s last 5 games, the Heat have a straight up record of 2-3 while going 3-2 in those games. Going back to the last 10, they are 6-4 and 6-4 ATS.

In their upcoming game, Miami will be looking to capitalize on their recent win over the Nuggets. Gabe Vincent led the way for the Heat with 23 points. Despite being 8 point underdogs on the spread, the Heat were able to secure an ATS win.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Heat picked up the win 111-108 win over the Nuggets. Heading into the game, Miami was the 8-point underdogs, giving them an ATS win. So far this season, the Nuggets have a record of 3-1 vs the Heat. Over the last 5 head to head meetings, the Nuggets have averaged 113 points per game compared to 108 for Miami. This has led to an ATS record of 4-1 for Denver. The over-under record in these same games is 4-1, with the teams combining for an average of 221 points per game.

Analysis

This season, the Nuggets’ offense is averaging 115.8 points per game, which is 15th in the NBA. In terms of pace, Denver has been playing at one of the slower tempo’s in the league, averaging just 97.9 possessions per game. Denver has struggled with their 3-point shot this season, as they are currently ranked just 4th in 3-point shooting percentage at 37.9%. In addition, they are near the bottom of the league in attempts, at just 31.2 attempts per contest. On defense, the Nuggets are allowing an average of 110.41 points per game, placing them 13th in the league. So far, they have done a good job defending the 3-point arc, as teams are hitting just 34.42% of their looks from deep.

As the Nuggets prepare for today’s game, Nikola Jokic is their leading scorer, with an average of 24.5 points per game. This season, Jokic has a field goal percentage of 63.2%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Jamal Murray, who is averaging 20.0 points per game.

This season, Miami is averaging just 109.5 points per game and play at one of the slower paces in the NBA at just 96.2 possessions per game. Miami’s 3-point shooting numbers are below the league average, as they have hit just 34.4% of their looks from deep. On average, the team gets up 34.8 3-point shots per game, placing them 17th in the NBA. Defensively, the Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.57 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.0%.

Coming into today’s game, Bam Adebayo is second on the team at 20.4 points per game, while Jimmy Butler leads at 22.9 points per contest.

Betting Trends

• The Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• The Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• The Heat are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

: Denver Nuggets -2.5. Denver has shot over 50% in the last four meetings with the Heat. Miami shot 48% from three-point range in Game 2 and that is not going to happen again. Three-point shooting is absolutely what made the difference in Game 2, which I am calling an enigma. The Heat usually shoot in the 35% range from beyond the arc. Call me nuts, but Miami might not win another game in this series. If you’re holding a Heat futures ticket, I’d be hedging if I were you. Bet the rest of your NBA Finals picks for FREE by scoring a 100% bonus at one of our numerous top sportsbooks!