Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers: ATS Prediction 3-19-25

Denver Nuggets (44-25 SU, 33-35 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (42-25 SU, 38-28 ATS)

When: Wednesday, March 19th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Crypto.com Arena, CA, Los Angeles

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Den +1/LAL -1

Total: 232.5

Money Line: Denver Nuggets -111/-108

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Probable) Ankle
• Nikola Jokić (Questionable) Ankle/Elbow
• Jamal Murray (Questionable) Ankle
• Christian Braun (Questionable) Foot
• Julian Strawther (Out) Knee
• DaRon Holmes II (Out) Achilles

Lakers

• LeBron James (Out) Groin
• Maxi Kleber (Out) Foot
• Luka Dončić (Probable) Ankle
• Rui Hachimura (Out) Knee
• Trey Jemison III (Questionable) Illness

At 10:00 ET, the Lakers (-108) will host the Nuggets (-111) in a Western Conference matchup. The Lakers are currently favored by 1 point and have won two straight games. The over/under line is set at 232.5 points.

This game will be played at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles and can be seen on ESPN.

Recent Form

Denver improved to 44-25 on the season with a 114-105 win over the Warriors on Monday. The Nuggets, who were +11.5 point underdogs, not only won but covered the spread. The game’s total score of 219 points fell short of the 232.5-point O/U line.

A pivotal 11-0 run turned the game in Denver’s favor, as they went from trailing 36-29 to leading 40-36. They extended their lead to 89-77 by the end of the 3rd quarter and held on despite being outscored 28-25 in the 4th.

With a 125-109 win over the Spurs on Monday, the Lakers improved to 42-25. Playing at home, Los Angeles covered the -9.5 spread, and the game’s total of 234 points went over the 230-point line.

A 12-0 run early in the game helped the Lakers take control, and they led 94-75 going into the 4th quarter. The Spurs outscored them 34-31 in the final period, but the Lakers had already built a big enough lead to secure the win.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed against the spread in recent matchups, the Lakers hold the edge at 4-1. However, the average scoring margin in these matchups has been tight, sitting at just 1 point per game. The over-under record in these same games is 2-3, with the teams combining for an average of 229 points per game.

Analysis

Aaron Gordon led the Nuggets to a win over the Warriors, scoring 38 points on 60.9% shooting, including four made threes at a 66.7% clip. Michael Porter Jr. added 21 points, though he shot just 38.9% from the field and 30% from deep, hitting three threes.

As a team, Denver connected on 14 threes, shooting 35.9% from beyond the arc and 46.7% overall. Gordon scored 13 points in the 2nd quarter and 12 more in the 3rd, while Porter added 11 of his points in the opening period.

Defensively, the Nuggets held the Warriors to 105 points, giving up 22 in the 1st quarter and 28 in both the 2nd and 4th. Denver allowed 27 points in the 3rd quarter.

The Nuggets limited the Warriors to 8 made threes on 24% shooting. Golden State went 15/27 from the free-throw line. Denver had 34 defensive rebounds, allowed 11 offensive boards, and recorded 12 steals and seven blocks.

Austin Reaves led the Lakers to a 125-point performance in their win over the Spurs, hitting five threes and shooting 57.1% from the field. Reaves finished with 30 points, seven rebounds, and six assists, scoring 12 points in the 3rd quarter. Luka Dončić added 21 points, despite shooting just 25% and contributed 14 assists, with 12 of his points coming in the 1st quarter.

The Lakers connected on 19 threes, shooting 39.6% from deep and 48.9% overall. Dorian Finney-Smith and Jordan Goodwin each scored 15 points, with Finney-Smith hitting four threes at 50% efficiency.

The Lakers put together a strong defensive performance on Monday, holding the Spurs to 109 points. They were particularly effective in the 1st and 3rd quarters, allowing just 22 and 24 points, respectively. Even with a 34-point 4th quarter, the Lakers managed to secure the win. Overall, they held the Spurs to 46% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Lakers gave up 15 threes on 39% shooting. They also sent the Spurs to the line 14 times, where San Antonio made 12 free throws. The Lakers controlled the glass with 34 defensive rebounds while allowing nine offensive boards. They also contributed 13 steals and four blocks.

Betting Trends

• Denver has played well in their previous three road games, going 2-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 119 points per game while allowing 119. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Los Angeles has an ATS record of 2-3 while averaging 112 per game. The team went 1-4 overall in these games.
• Through their last five games as the underdog, the Nuggets have an ATS record of 3-2 and a straight-up mark of 3-2.
• Through their last three games as the favorite, the Lakers have an ATS record of 2-1 and a straight up mark of 2-1.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

This is a big game in the Western Conference, as the Lakers are now just 1-game behind the Nuggets, who are currently tied with the Rockets for the 2-seed in the West. Even though the Lakers have their own injury issues, the Nuggets are banged up right now. I think Luka and the Lakers win this one, and I’m taking them to cover at -1.