Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers ATS Pick & Predictions

Denver Nuggets (8-6 SU, 5-8 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (10-5 SU, 7-8 ATS)

When: Saturday, November 23rd, 10:30 PM (ET)

Where: Crypto.com Arena, CA, Los Angeles

TV: NBA

Point Spread: Den +4.5/LAL -4.5

Total: 233

Money Line: Denver Nuggets +149/-178

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Out) Calf
• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee
• DaRon Holmes II (Out) Achilles

Lakers

• Anthony Davis (Probable) Foot
• Christian Wood (Out) Knee
• Jarred Vanderbilt (Out) Foot
• Jaxson Hayes (Out) Ankle
• Bronny James Jr. (Out) Heel
• Quincy Olivari (Out) Ankle

At 10:30 ET, the Lakers (-178) will host the Nuggets (+149) in a Western Conference matchup. The Lakers are currently favored by 4.5 points over the Nuggets. The over/under line is set at 233 points.

This game will be played at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. The Lakers are 10-5 and 4th in the Western Conference, while the Nuggets are 8-6 and 6th in the West.

Recent Form

After a 123-120 loss to the Mavericks on Friday, the Nuggets are now 8-6 this season. Denver, who were -5 point favorites at home, failed to cover the spread. The game’s total points of 243 exceeded the O/U line of 229 by 14 points.

Denver struggled in the 2nd quarter, being outscored 40-22, but responded with a 13-0 run, cutting the score from 81-64 to 81-77. They outscored Dallas 36-22 in the 3rd quarter and entered the 4th down 95-89 but couldn’t complete the comeback.

After a 119-118 loss to the Magic on Thursday, the Lakers are now 10-5 this season. Los Angeles was favored by 5.5 points at home but couldn’t cover the spread. The total score of 237 points exceeded the O/U line of 216.5 by 20.5 points.

The Lakers led 67-60 at halftime but were outscored 29-21 in the 3rd quarter. They entered the 4th quarter down 89-88 and couldn’t close the gap, as both teams scored 30 points in the final period.

The Historicals

The level of competition has been tight in the five most recent games between the Nuggets and Lakers, with just 2 points per game separating the teams. Los Angeles has the ATS edge in this span at 3-2. Denver and Los Angeles averaged a combined 214 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 1-4.

Analysis

In their 123-120 loss to the Mavericks, the Nuggets hit 15 threes, shooting 51.7% from deep, though their overall field goal percentage was 47.8%. Nikola Jokic led the way with 33 points, 17 rebounds, and ten assists, shooting 59.1% from the field and hitting both of his three-point attempts.

Michael Porter Jr. and Christian Braun each added 17 points, with Braun shooting 66.7% from the field and from three. Jokic scored 11 points in the 1st quarter, while Russell Westbrook added 9 of his 16 points in the 4th.

The Nuggets couldn’t overcome a tough 2nd quarter defensively, where they gave up 40 points, as they allowed 123 points in a loss to the Mavericks. Denver’s defense tightened up in the 3rd, holding Dallas to 22 points, but it wasn’t enough to turn the tide.

Denver did a decent job defending the three, with the Mavericks hitting ten threes on 37% shooting. The Nuggets also sent Dallas to the line 27 times, where they made 21 free throws. Denver finished with four steals and seven blocked shots.

Anthony Davis and LeBron James led the Lakers’ offense in their 119-118 loss to the Magic, with Davis scoring 39 points and grabbing nine rebounds, shooting 63.6% from the field. LeBron added 31 points, ten rebounds, and hit five threes at a 55.6% rate, scoring 14 points in the 4th quarter.

The Lakers shot 50.6% overall, connecting on 41.9% of their threes, making 13 from deep. Dalton Knecht contributed 17 points, hitting three threes and adding 5 points in the final period.

The Lakers’ defense struggled in the 1st quarter, giving up 36 points, but they tightened up in the 2nd, allowing just 24. Overall, they allowed 119 points on 47% shooting from the Magic.

From three, the Magic hit 15 threes at a 37% rate. The Lakers sent Orlando to the line 21 times, where they made 18 free throws. Los Angeles finished with four steals and six blocks.

Betting Trends

• Across the Nugget’s last ten road games, the team averaged 110 points per game while allowing 113. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 4-6 while going 5-5 straight-up.
• In their last ten games at home, the Lakers have a straight-up record of 3-7 while going 4-6 vs. the spread. The team’s offense averaged 109 points per game in these contests.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Nuggets have a straight-up record of 7-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 8-2.
• Through their previous five contests as the betting favorite, the Lakers have a strong record of 4-1. Their record vs the spread in these matchups is 1-4.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Heading into Saturday night’s matchup, I see getting the Nuggets at +4.5 is a steal. Even though Denver is playing back-to-backs, the Lakers are coming off a home loss to the Magic on Thursday, and even though they have been playing some sub-par teams of late, they haven’t been winning convincingly. Look for this one to come down to the wire, making the Nuggets to cover the best way to play this matchup.