Denver Nuggets vs. LA Lakers Game 3 Betting Preview

Denver Nuggets (57-25 SU, 39-43 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (47-35 SU, 40-45 ATS)

When: Thursday, April 25th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Crypto.com Arena, CA, Los Angeles

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Den +1/LAL -1 (Stop wasting money! Bet on games at reduced odds!)

Total: 215

Money Line: Denver Nuggets -110/-110

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee

Lakers

• Anthony Davis (Probable) Back
• LeBron James (Probable) Ankle
• Christian Wood (Out) Knee
• Jarred Vanderbilt (Out) Foot
• Cam Reddish (Out) Ankle
• Jalen Hood-Schifino (Out) Back

The Lakers will look to get back into their first-round series against the Nuggets as they currently trail 2-0. Game three is set for 10:00 PM ET from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. TNT is carrying the game on TV, and the over/under line is at 215 points. The Lakers are favored by one point at home, and the money line odds are currently sitting at -110 for both teams.

Despite the Lakers jumping out to a 28-24 lead in the 1st quarter, the Nuggets were able to come back and win the game by a score of 101-99. The Lakers had a big 2nd quarter, outscoring the Nuggets 31-20. The Nuggets were 7-point favorites and fell 23.5 points short of the over/under line of 223.5 points.

Anthony Davis led all scorers with 32 points, and LeBron James added 26 points for the Lakers. The Lakers shot 48.7% from the field and made 13 threes. Nikola Jokic had a monster game for the Nuggets, finishing with 27 points, 10 assists, and 20 rebounds. Michael Porter Jr. hit six threes and finished with 22 points.

Recent Form

As the underdog, the Nuggets have won three straight games and are 4-6 this season as the underdog. On average, they have been outscored by 3.8 points per game in these games. Today’s O/U line is set at 215, and Denver has gone 2-0 on the under in their last two games.

In their most recent game against the Lakers, the Nuggets won 101-99. Denver was getting 7 points in that game, and the combined scoring was 200 points. The O/U line for that game was 223.5.

Denver’s overall record this season is 57-25, which is good for 2nd place in the Western Conference. Against the West, they are 33-19 and 24-6 in non-conference games.

On the road, the Nuggets are 24-17 straight-up and 17-23 ATS. Their ATS record for the season is 39-43, and they have covered the spread in their last two games as the underdog.

This season, Denver’s games have averaged a combined scoring total of 224.1 points. Today’s O/U line of 215 is lower than the average of 225.6 for their games this season. The Nuggets have gone 34-48-2 on the O/U for the season.

Overall, the Lakers have a record of 47-35 this season, which is currently 7th in the Western Conference. In their division, they are 3rd in the Pacific with a record of 7-10.

As the favorite, the Lakers have won nine straight games and are 32-13 as the favorite this season. Today, they are favored by 1 point. Against the spread at home, they are 20-22 and have failed to cover in their last two games.

The Lakers’ O/U record for the season is 48-37, and the under has hit in their last three games. Today’s O/U line is set at 215, and their games have averaged 234.6 points per game this season.

In their last game against the Nuggets, the Lakers lost by a score of 101-99. They were 7-point underdogs going into the game. This season, the Lakers have an ATS record of 40-45 and are 20-22 ATS at home.

The Historicals

The Nuggets have had the better record vs the spread over the last 5 games, going 4-1. The team’s average scoring margin in these contests sits at 9 points per game. The over-under record in these same games is 1-4, with the teams combining for an average of 219 points per game.

Analysis

Denver comes into the game as the NBA’s 13th ranked scoring offense, at 114.9 points per game. Their production has been even better at home, where they have averaged 118 points per contest. However, on the road, they have averaged just 111.2 points per game. The Nuggets are near the bottom of the league in both free throw attempts and free throws made this season.

Nikola Jokic has been carrying the Nuggets offense of late, averaging 27.4 points per game in his last five games. This has come while shooting 67.5% from the field and 54.5% from beyond the arc. Over this stretch, he also averaged 13 rebounds and 8.2 assists. Jamal Murray has averaged 23.6 points in his last five games, while Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 17 points and 6.6 rebounds in his last five.

When it comes to defense, the Nuggets have been one of the league’s best units this season, allowing just 109.4 points per game (6th). Opponents have struggled to find their shooting stroke against Denver, shooting just 46.4% from the field (7th) and 35.4% from three (2nd).

One area where the Nuggets have excelled is in defending the paint. They are 5th in two-point shooting percentage allowed at 52.5%. In terms of blocking shots, Denver is 10th in the NBA at 5.6 per game. However, they have been a bit foul-prone, ranking 22nd in personal fouls.

Over their last five games, the Nuggets have seen their field goal percentage allowed rise to 49.2%. They have also struggled to defend the three-point line during that stretch, giving up 36.8% shooting from deep.

LeBron James has averaged 28.2 points, 10.2 assists, and 8.6 rebounds over his last five games. In these games, he hit 40% of his three-point attempts. Anthony Davis has been playing well of late, averaging 30 points and 13 rebounds while shooting 57.7% from the field. Both Davis and James are probable with injuries.

For the season, the Lakers are averaging 118 points per game, which is 6th in the league. Their scoring average at home is 119 points per contest, which is 7th in the NBA. Los Angeles is 3rd in field goal percentage and has taken the fewest three-point attempts in the league.

When it comes to defense, the Lakers have struggled this season, ranking 23rd in the league in points allowed per game at 117.1. However, they have been much better on the road, giving up 119.5 points per game (24th). At home, Los Angeles is allowing 114.6 points per contest (18th).

Over their last five games, the Lakers’ defense has been middle of the pack, giving up 109.8 points per game (15th). Opponents have scored more than their season average vs. Los Angeles in 63.4% of their games.

One area where the Lakers have excelled defensively is at the free-throw line, ranking 2nd in made free throws allowed per game (17.8). In terms of steals and blocked shots, they are 20th and 11th, respectively.

Betting Trends

• Across their last three road contests, Denver has been good against the spread posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 119 points per game.
• In their last three home games, Los Angeles has averaged 104 points per game while allowing 107. The team’s record in this stretch was 1-2 while going 2-1.
• In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Nuggets have a straight up record of 4-6 and an ATS mark of 5-5.
• Across their last three matchups as the betting favorite, the Lakers have an overall record of 3-0 while going 1-2 against the spread.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Lakers suffered a gut punch on Monday night, as Jamal Murray’s last second shot turned the trajectory of this series. Although the Lakers would have still been a long shot to pull off the series upset, it would have been a lot more interesting at 1-1 vs. 2-0 in favor of the Nuggets. Although the Lakers might get an early burst of energy being at home for game 3, I see the Nuggets picking up a win in this one and am taking them on the money line.

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