Denver Nuggets (11-8) at Dallas Mavericks (12-7), 8:15 pm Eastern Thursday, TNT
by Zman of Predictem.com
A pair of slumping Western Conference teams meet when the Dallas Mavericks play host to the Denver Nuggets Thursday night in the opener of an NBA double-header on TNT.
Dallas is listed as a 7 1/2-point home favorite for Thursday’s game, with a total of 213. Also, the Mavericks are posted at from -330 to -380 on various moneylines, with Denver getting from +250 to +320 as road underdogs.
The Nuggets have lost four of their last six games after falling at home to the Lakers Wednesday night 111-107, despite 51 points from Allen Iverson. So Denver sits in second place in the Northwest Division, two games behind first-place Utah.
Dallas, on the other hand, has lost five of its last eight games after losing at San Antonio which played with C Tim Duncan 97-95 Wednesday night. So the Mavs are tied for second place in the Southwest Division, four games back of the first-place Spurs.
The Nuggets are 9-10 against the spread so far this season, 3-5 straight up and just 2-6 ATS on the road. Also, Denver is 0-3 both SU and vs. the numbers when getting between five and ten points as road dogs.
Dallas has also struggled to provide its financial backers with cashable tickets, going 7-12 against the spread this season, and while 8-1 straight up at home, just 4-5 ATS in Big D. The Mavs are also 2-1 against the spread as home chalk of single-digits.
The Mavericks have taken three of four games from the Nuggets each of the last two seasons. But since Denver acquired AI last December, the teams have split two games, with Dallas winning by 20 at home and the Nuggets winning by four in Denver. This is the first meeting between these two teams this season.
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On the season, the Nuggets are shooting 46% from the field as a team, 35% from 3-point range and 74% from the line. Denver also is ranked 7th in the league with a +4.5 ppg average, but 25th in rebounds at -2.9 per game.
The Mavs are shooting 46% from the floor, 33% from long range and a league-best 84% from the free-throw line. Also, Dallas is ranked 9th in the league at +4.1 ppg, and 12th in rebounding at +1.2 per game.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com ranks the Mavericks 8th at 93.5, the Nuggets 12th at 92.3.
Denver has been playing with higher totals on their games than most teams in the league, including the Mavs. Nuggets games are averaging 209 points per this season, but the o/u is only 9-10. Meanwhile, Dallas games are averaging 200 points, but the totals are 13-6.
Zman’s Pick: Take the Mavericks to win by double digits.