Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Pick | March 17

Denver Nuggets (47-20 SU, 31-34 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (38-29 SU, 37-30 ATS)

When: Sunday, March 17th, 3:30 PM (ET)

Where: American Airlines Center, TX, Dallas

TV: ABC

Point Spread: Den -3.5/Dal +3.5

Total: 226.5

Money Line: Denver Nuggets -159/+132

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee

Mavericks

• Dante Exum (Questionable) Foot
• Luka Doncic (Questionable) Hamstring
• Josh Green (Out) Ankle
• Brandon Williams (Out) Wrist

Today’s matchup between the Denver Nuggets and the Dallas Mavericks is a Western Conference showdown. The Nuggets (-3.5) are favored over the Mavericks (+3.5) and the over/under line is set at 226.5. Denver enters the game with a record of 47-20 and has won five straight games. Dallas is 38-29 and currently holds the eighth seed in the Western Conference.

This game will take place at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. Tip-off is scheduled for 3:30 ET and the game can be seen on ABC.

Recent Form

The Nuggets are favored by 3.5 points today and have a record of 43-14 as the favorite. They have been favored in 57 of their 67 games this season and have won four straight games as the favorite.

Denver has an ATS record of 31-34 for the season, including going 15-18 ATS on the road. They have covered the spread in their last five road games and have an average scoring differential of -0.1 points per game on the road.

As the favorite, the Nuggets have gone 26-29 ATS this season, and their average scoring differential in these games is +6 points per game. Today’s O/U line of 226.5 is lower than their season average of 227.2, and their games have averaged 225.1 points per game.

In their last game, the Nuggets defeated the Spurs by a score of 117-106. They were favored by 10.5 points in that game and covered the spread. The O/U line for that game was 224.5.

Denver is currently 2nd in the Western Conference with a record of 47-20. Against Western Conference teams, they are 26-14 and 6-5 against other teams in the Northwest Division. The Nuggets have won five straight games and are 5-5 in their last 10 road games.

Dallas is 9-18 as the underdog this season and is looking to snap a three-game losing streak as the underdog. The Mavericks have an average scoring differential of -6.3 points per game as the underdog.

On the ATS side, Dallas has covered the spread in five straight games and is 37-30 overall. At home, they are 16-19 ATS compared to 21-11 on the road. As the underdog, their ATS record is 12-15.

In their last game, the Mavericks lost to the Thunder by a score of 126-119. They were 9.5-point underdogs going into the game and have an O/U record of 34-33 for the season.

For the season, the average O/U line in Mavericks games is 236.1, which is higher than today’s line of 226.5. In their games, the average combined scoring is 236.7 points per game.

Despite their loss to the Thunder, the Mavericks are still in 8th place in the Western Conference with a record of 38-29. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 22-19 and 8-5 against teams in the Southwest Division.

The Historicals

Over the last 5 head to head meetings, the Nuggets have averaged 117 points per game compared to 108 for Dallas. This has led to an ATS record of 4-1 for Denver. The over-under record in these same games is 2-3, with the teams combining for an average of 225 points per game.

Analysis

Denver’s offense has been one of the most efficient in the league this season. They are shooting 49% from the field, which is 4th in the NBA. However, they have struggled from three-point range, hitting just 36% of their attempts (14th).

When it comes to scoring, the Nuggets are averaging 114.8 points per game, which is 15th in the league. On the road, they are averaging 110.8 points compared to 118.9 at home. In terms of pace, Denver is 28th in the NBA.

When it comes to getting to the free-throw line, the Nuggets are 29th in both attempts and makes. They are also 28th in three-point attempts but are 2nd in two-point field goals made.

The Nuggets’ defense is presently ranked 7th in the league, allowing an average of 110.3 points per contest. When it comes to defending inside the arc, the Nuggets squad is permitting opposing teams to shoot at a clip of 52.5% inside the arc, and they’re also giving up 35.9% from downtown.

The Mavericks are one of the top offensive teams in the NBA this season, ranking 6th in scoring at 119 points per game. At home, they are averaging 119.8 points per game. So far, they have outscored the NBA scoring average in 62.7% of their games.

Dallas has been one of the most efficient three-point shooting teams in the league, ranking 3rd in made threes per game. Overall, they are shooting 37% from beyond the arc.

When it comes to pace, the Mavericks are 11th in the league at 99.7 possessions per game. In terms of field goal percentage, they are 11th overall at 48%. In addition, they are 8th in true shooting percentage.

So far, the Mavericks’ defense is ranked 22nd in the league at 117.7 points per contest. Opponents are hitting 55.6% of their two-point field goal attempts this season, and they’re also connecting on 36.8% of their three-point attempts.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past five road matchups, Denver has an ATS record of 5-0 while averaging 117 per game. The team went 5-0 overall in these games.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Dallas has an ATS record of 4-1 while averaging 126 per game. The team went 3-2 overall in these games.
• In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Mavericks have a straight up record of 0-3 and an ATS mark of 2-1.
• Denver has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three games.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

These two teams have been going in different directions of late, the Nuggets have rattled off five straight, and have gone 9-1 in their last 10, while the Mavs are in the thick of things at the bottom end of the Western Conference playoff race have gone just 5-5. Right now, they have a 2.5 game lead over Golden State for the 8th seed, but Dallas hasn’t been playing their best basketball of late. I’m taking Denver to pick up a win and cover at -3.5.