Denver Nuggets vs. Boston Celtics Prediction for Jan 19

Denver Nuggets (28-14 SU, 18-23 ATS) vs. Boston Celtics (32-9 SU, 20-19 ATS)

When: Friday, January 19th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: TD Garden, MA, Boston

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Den +6/Bos -6

Total: 234.5

Money Line: Denver Nuggets +188/-229

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Probable) Shoulder
• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee
• Julian Strawther (Out) Knee

Celtics

None

At 7:30 ET, the Boston Celtics (-229) will host the Denver Nuggets (+188) in a non-conference matchup. ESPN will have the TV coverage, and the over/under line is sitting at 234.5 points.

Currently, the Celtics are favored by 6 points, and they are on a three-game winning streak. As for the Nuggets, they are 28-14 overall and sit third in the Western Conference.

Recent Form

The average over/under line for Denver’s games this season is 227.2, which is lower than today’s line of 234.5. The Nuggets have an O/U record of 17-24-1 this season.

Denver’s last game against the 76ers had a scoring total of 247 points, which was higher than the O/U line of 232.5. The Nuggets lost the game by a score of 126-121.

Denver has gone 1-3 straight-up as the underdog this season and is currently the underdog by 6 points against the Celtics. Their ATS record as the underdog is 1-3, and they have failed to cover the spread in their last three games as the underdog.

In Western Conference play, the Nuggets are 17-10 compared to 11-4 against the East. This record has them in 3rd place in the West, just behind the Lakers and Clippers.

On the road, the Nuggets have an average scoring differential of 0.0 points per game. Their overall ATS record on the road is 7-14, with a straight-up record of 11-10.

Boston has won three straight games and is currently in first place in the Eastern Conference with a record of 32-9. In the Atlantic Division, they also hold the top spot.

This season, the Celtics have been favored in 38 of their 41 games and are favored by 6 points today. As the favorite, they have a record of 30-8 and have won four straight games as the favorite.

Boston’s ATS record for the season is 20-19, and they have covered the spread in their last three games. At home, their ATS record is 12-7, and they have an average scoring differential of +15.6 points per game.

In their last game, the Celtics defeated the Spurs by a score of 117-98. The O/U line for that game was 238 points, and Boston was favored by 15 points. The Celtics’ ATS win improved their overall ATS record to 20-19.

This season, Boston’s games have averaged a combined 231.9 points, which is lower than today’s O/U line of 234.5. The Celtics have gone 2 straight games hitting the under.

The Historicals

The Celtics have had the better record vs the spread over the last 5 games, going 3-2. The team’s average scoring margin in these contests sits at 10 points per game. Denver and Boston averaged a combined 220 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 2-2-1.

Analysis

When it comes to scoring, the Nuggets have been one of the best teams in the league this season, averaging 116.3 points per game (13th). However, their scoring has been slightly lower on the road, where they are averaging 112.0 points per game (19th).

Denver has been one of the most efficient teams in the league in terms of field goal percentage, shooting 49% from the field (3rd). They have also been one of the best teams at getting to the rim, ranking 2nd in two-point field goals made and attempted.

So far this season, the Nuggets have outscored the NBA scoring average in 54.8% of their games. They have also been one of the top teams in terms of assists, averaging 29.5 per game (3rd).

This season, the Nuggets’ defense is the 7th ranked defense in the NBA at 7th PPG. So far, they have held opposing offenses below the NBA scoring average in 66.7% of their games. The Denver defense has allowed opponents to shoot 36.4% from beyond the arc this season. Opposing teams are also hitting 46.8% of their field goal attempts vs. Denver.

At home, the Celtics are averaging 124 points per game, which is 4th in the NBA. Overall, they are 5th in the league in scoring at 120.9 points per game. Boston has outscored the NBA scoring average in 70.7% of their games this season.

When it comes to three-point shooting, the Celtics lead the NBA in made threes per game at 16.2. They are also 5th in three-point shooting percentage at 38%. Overall, Boston is 11th in field goal percentage.

So far this season, the Celtics have been one of the best teams in terms of true shooting percentage (5th). They have also been one of the most efficient teams at getting to the free-throw line, ranking 16th in attempts.

So far this season, the Celtics defense has been performing well, ranking 5th in the NBA at 110.9 points allowed per contest. For the season, Boston is ranked 29th in fewest fouls per game. Team’s are averaging 19.6 free-throws per game vs. the Celtics and have an overall field goal percentage of 45.0%.

Betting Trends

• Across the Nuggets last ten road games, the team averaged 116 points per game while allowing 115. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 4-6, while going 6-4 straight-up.
• Across the Celtics last ten home games, the team averaged 125 points per game while allowing 116. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 6-4, while going 6-4 straight-up.
• Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Nuggets have gone 0-3 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 0-3.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Celtics have a straight-up record of 8-2. Their record vs the spread in these games was 6-4.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Tonight’s Nuggets vs Celtics matchup is a potential NBA Finals preview, and the Celtics come in as 6-point favorites. Even though I have Boston winning straight-up, I expect this one to come down to the wire, with Denver covering at +6.