Denver at Boston: Free Pick & Betting Tips for Sunday’s Showdown

Denver Nuggets (39-21 SU, 31-28 ATS) vs. Boston Celtics (42-18 SU, 25-34 ATS)

When: Sunday, March 2nd, 1:00 PM (ET)

Where: TD Garden, MA, Boston

TV: ABC

Point Spread: Den +3.5/Bos -3.5

Total: 235

Money Line: Denver Nuggets +133/-158

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Questionable) Ankle
• Vlatko Čančar (Out) Knee
• Zeke Nnaji (Questionable) Ankle
• Peyton Watson (Out) Knee
• DaRon Holmes II (Out) Achilles

Celtics

• Jrue Holiday (Doubtful) Finger
• Kristaps Porzingis (Doubtful) Illness
• Jaylen Brown (Questionable) Knee

At 1:00 ET on ABC, the Celtics (-158) will host the Nuggets (+133) in a non-conference matchup. Boston (-3.5) is currently on a two-game losing streak and is 42-18 overall, which is good for 2nd in the Eastern Conference. Denver (39-21) is 2nd in the West and 2nd in the Northwest Division.

This game has an over/under of 235 points and will take place at TD Garden in Boston.

Recent Form

The Nuggets improved to 39-21 with a 134-119 win over the Pistons on Friday. Denver, who were +2 point underdogs, covered the spread, and the game’s total of 253 points went over the line of 239.5.

Denver’s 18-0 run early in the game was key, as they went from leading 9-8 to 27-8. After a 39-24 3rd quarter, the Nuggets entered the 4th with a 107-87 lead, allowing them to withstand a 32-27 4th quarter from the Pistons.

The Celtics dropped to 42-18 on the season after a 123-116 home loss to the Cavaliers on Friday. Boston, favored by 1 point, not only lost the game but also failed to cover the spread. The total score of 239 points exceeded the pre-game O/U line of 233.5 by 5.5 points.

Boston started strong with an 11-0 run and led 38-26 after the 1st quarter. However, Cleveland outscored them in each of the remaining quarters, including a decisive 28-18 advantage in the 4th.

The Historicals

The level of competition has been tight in the five most recent games between Nuggets and Celtics, with just -2 points per game separating the teams. Denver has the ATS edge in this span at 3-2. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 2-2-1. Combined, they averaged 224 points in these games.

Analysis

In their win over the Pistons, the Nuggets shot 56% from the field and connected on 17 threes at a 54.8% rate. Jamal Murray led the way with 31 points, hitting five threes, while Michael Porter Jr. added 28 points, making six threes at 85.7% efficiency.

Nikola Jokić contributed a triple-double with 23 points, 17 rebounds, and 15 assists. Christian Braun also scored 23 points, with 10 coming in the opening quarter. Murray had a big 3rd quarter, scoring 15 of his 31 points.

Defensively, the Nuggets gave up 119 points to the Pistons but held them to 45% shooting overall. Denver’s best quarter was the 3rd, where they allowed just 24 points. They also limited Detroit’s three-point shooting, with the Pistons hitting 12 threes at a 32% clip.

Denver sent Detroit to the line 23 times, with the Pistons converting 17 free throws. The Nuggets grabbed 40 defensive rebounds but gave up 14 offensive boards. They also contributed five steals and eight blocks in the game.

Jayson Tatum’s 46-point, 16-rebound performance wasn’t enough for the Celtics in their 123-116 loss to the Cavaliers, as he shot 51.4% from the field and added nine assists. Jaylen Brown contributed 37 points, hitting 66.7% of his threes and adding five rebounds.

The Celtics connected on 17 threes, shooting 43.6% from beyond the arc and 48.3% overall. Derrick White also hit four threes, finishing with 16 points, while Tatum and Brown each made four from deep.

The Celtics struggled defensively in the 2nd quarter, giving up 38 points, and allowed 123 points overall in their loss to the Cavaliers. Cleveland shot 47% from the field, including 17 made threes at a 43% clip.

Boston sent the Cavaliers to the line 19 times, where they hit 16 free throws. The Celtics recorded 26 defensive rebounds but allowed 14 offensive boards while also tallying five steals and five blocks.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past ten road matchups, Denver has an ATS record of 4-6 while averaging 118 per game. The team went 6-4 overall in these games.
• Through their last ten home games, Boston has an ATS record of just 5-5. However, their overall record was 8-2 while averaging 113 points per game.
• In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Nuggets have a straight-up record of 5-5 and an ATS mark of 5-5.
• Spanning across their last three games as the betting favorite, the Celtics have gone 0-3 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Denver heads into Boston as then +3.5 point dogs, and they are in the middle of a tough scheduling stretch, with this being their third game in four days. However, they are facing a banged-up Celtics squad today, and I think the Nuggets have a good chance to pull off the upset. I’m taking Denver to cover at +3.5.