Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Predictions | NBA Picks 11/14/24

Dallas Mavericks (5-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) vs. Utah Jazz (2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS)

When: Thursday, November 14th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Delta Center, UT, Salt Lake City

TV: NBA

Point Spread: Dal -9.5/UT +9.5

Total: 231

Money Line: Dallas Mavericks -430/+335

Notable Injuries

Mavericks

• Dante Exum (Out) Wrist
• Luka Doncic (Probable) Knee
• P.J. Washington (Doubtful) Knee

Jazz

• Walker Kessler (Out) Hip
• Taylor Hendricks (Out) Leg/Ankle

The Jazz (2-8) are 9.5-point underdogs at home against the Mavericks (5-6) in a Western Conference matchup. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 ET at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City.

The over/under line is set at 231 points. The game will be televised on NBA TV

Recent Form

Dallas fell to 5-6 on the season after a 120-117 loss to the Warriors on Tuesday. The Mavericks, who were +2.5 point underdogs, failed to cover the spread, losing by three points. The total points for the game were 237, just over the O/U line of 235.5.

Dallas went on a 13-0 run, extending their lead from 39-34 to 52-34. However, the Warriors responded with a strong 3rd quarter, outscoring the Mavericks 37-26. Dallas entered the 4th quarter down 96-89 and couldn’t complete the comeback, despite outscoring Golden State 28-24 in the final period.

Utah’s season continues to be a struggle, as they fell to 2-8 after a 120-112 loss to the Suns on Tuesday. The Jazz were +5.5 underdogs at home and failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game hit 232, going over the pre-game line of 228.5 by 3.5 points.

Utah fell behind early, trailing 33-21 after the 1st quarter. Phoenix used a 12-0 run to extend their lead, but the Jazz fought back, winning the 3rd quarter 30-23. However, they couldn’t close the gap in the 4th, as both teams scored 33 points in the final period.

The Historicals

Across the previous five meetings between the teams, the Mavericks have an average scoring margin of +10 points per game, leading to an ATS mark of 3-2. Over the course of these games, they averaged 220 points per game, leading a 1-4 over-under record.

Analysis

In Tuesday’s loss to the Warriors, the Mavericks shot 52.4% from the field, but struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 32.4% of their threes, making 11 in total. Luka Doncic led the way with 31 points, adding 12 in the opening quarter, while Klay Thompson contributed 22 points, knocking down six threes at a 50% rate.

Kyrie Irving added 21 points, including 9 in the 4th quarter, and finished with a 61.5% shooting performance. Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively also made key contributions late, with each scoring 4 points in the final period.

Defensively, the Mavericks had a tough 3rd quarter, giving up 37 points, but they tightened up in the 4th, allowing just 24 points. Overall, Dallas allowed 120 points on 47% shooting from the field.

The Mavericks did a decent job defending the three, as the Warriors hit 14 threes at a 34% rate. Dallas also sent Golden State to the line 27 times, where they made 16 free throws. The Mavericks finished with six steals and one block.

John Collins led the Jazz with 29 points and ten rebounds, shooting 63.2% from the field and hitting three threes at 50% in their loss to the Suns. Kyle Filipowski added 18 points, also shooting 63.6% and making two threes at 50%, while Lauri Markkanen contributed 17 points, 5 assists, and two made threes.

Utah connected on 15 threes, shooting 39.5% from deep and 48.9% overall. Collins scored 9 points in both the 1st and 4th quarters, while Jordan Clarkson added 8 of his 16 points in the final period.

The Jazz struggled defensively against the Suns, giving up 33 points in both the 1st and 4th quarters and 120 points overall. Despite a solid 3rd quarter where they allowed just 23 points, Utah couldn’t contain Phoenix, who shot 50% from the field.

Utah’s defense particularly faltered on the perimeter, as the Suns hit 18 threes at a 46% clip. The Jazz sent Phoenix to the line 22 times, where they made 16 free throws. Utah also allowed ten offensive rebounds while recording seven steals and three blocks.

Betting Trends

• In their last five games away from home, the Mavericks have a straight-up record of 1-4 while going 1-3-1 vs. the spread. The team averaged 109 points per game in this stretch.
• In their last ten games at home, the Jazz have a straight-up record of 3-7 while going 6-4 vs. the spread. The team averaged 109 points per game in this stretch.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the underdog, Utah has an ATS mark of 4-6 while going 2-8 straight up.
• The last ten games that Dallas was favored, they have an ATS mark of 3-7 while going 4-6 straight up.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

We only have one game tonight in the NBA, and the Mavs are the heavy favorite against a Utah team that is just 2-8. However, Dallas isn’t quite off to the start they had hoped for either, sitting at 5-6 after their 3-game losing streak. But one thing to note is that all 3 of these games were decided by 3-points or less. I think Dallas opens things up here tonight in a big way, and I like them to cover at -9.