Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Game 5 Predictions

Dallas Mavericks (50-32 SU, 54-38 ATS) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25 SU, 52-38 ATS)

When: Wednesday, May 15th, 9:30 PM (ET)

Where: Paycom Center, OK, Oklahoma City

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Dal +4.5/OKC -4.5

Total: 213

Money Line: Dallas Mavericks +148/-178

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Notable Injuries

Mavericks

• Maxi Kleber (Out) Shoulder
• Luka Doncic (Probable) Knee/Ankle
• Olivier-Maxence Prosper (Out) Ankle

Thunder

None

Wednesday night’s game five matchup between the Mavericks and Thunder is all tied up at two games apiece. The Thunder are the slight favorite at -4.5 and are -178 on the money line. As for the Mavericks, they are +148. The over/under line is currently sitting at 213 points. Tip-off is at 9:30 PM ET from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City and can be seen on TNT.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a big game for the Thunder in their 100-96 win over the Mavericks, as he finished with 34 points. Oklahoma City was actually 1.5-point underdogs heading into the game and came through with a cover. The Thunder held the Mavs to just 12 made threes and 34.3% shooting from outside.

Going into the game, the over/under line was at 214.5 points, and the teams fell 18.5 points short of that. The Thunder outscored the Mavs by 8 points in the 4th quarter to pull out the win. P.J. Washington led the Mavericks with 21 points, while Luka Doncic added 18 points.

Recent Form

Dallas is 41-51 on the O/U this season, and the under has hit in their last two games. Today’s line of 213 is lower than their season average of 230.8 points per game.

In terms of their ATS record, the Mavericks are 54-38 overall and 30-16 on the road. As underdogs, they are 17-17 vs. the spread and 14-20 straight-up.

In their last game against the Thunder, the Mavericks lost 100-96. They were favored by 1.5 points going into the game, and the O/U line was 214.5.

For the season, the Mavericks are 50-32, which is good for 5th place in the Western Conference. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 31-21 and 11-5 in their division.

On the road, the Mavericks are 28-18 straight-up and 30-16 vs. the spread. As underdogs, they have a scoring differential of -5.6 points per game, and their average scoring differential on the road is +0.9 PPG.

In terms of their overall record, the Thunder finished the season at 57-25, which is currently the best in the Western Conference. In the West, they went 36-16 compared to 21-9 against the East.

Oklahoma City has an average scoring margin of +12.8 points per game at home this season. Against the spread, they are 29-16 at home and 39-28 as the favorite.

When favored, the Thunder have gone 52-15 this season and have a scoring margin of +10.6 points per game. Today, they are favored by 4.5 points.

The Thunder’s O/U record for the season is 46-43-1, and their last two games have gone under the posted total. On average, their games have finished with 230.1 points.

Oklahoma City’s last game was also against the Mavericks, and they won 100-96. The Thunder covered the spread as 1.5-point underdogs.

The Historicals

Over the last 5 head to head meetings, the Thunder have averaged 112 points per game compared to 100 for Dallas. This has led to an ATS record of 3-2 for Oklahoma City. Dallas and Oklahoma City averaged a combined 212 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 1-4.

Analysis

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For the season, the Mavericks are averaging 117.9 points per game, which is 8th in the league. They have been slightly better at home, averaging 117.2 points per game compared to 115.8 on the road. Dallas is also one of the top three-point shooting teams in terms of made threes, averaging 14.6 threes per game. This is the 4th best mark in the league.

Luka Doncic is probable for tonight’s game with a knee/ankle injury. Over his last five games, he is averaging 23.2 points, 8.8 assists, and 10 rebounds. Doncic’s shooting percentage in his last five games is just 37.9% overall and 25.6% from downtown. P.J. Washington is averaging 20.2 points per game in his last five games while hitting 51.1% of his threes.

When it comes to points allowed per game, the Mavericks are right in the middle of the pack, ranking 17th in the league at 114.3 points per game. On the road, Dallas is giving up 115.0 points per contest, which is also 16th in the NBA.

Over their last five games, the Mavericks’ defense has been stingy, allowing just 105.8 points per game, which is 9th in the league during that span. One area where Dallas has struggled in their last five games is at the free-throw line, as they have given up an average of 20 made free-throws per game, which is 28th in the league.

On the season, opposing teams have scored more than their season average in 61.0% of games vs. Dallas, while they have held teams below their season average in 51.2% of games. When it comes to three-point shooting, opponents have made more threes than their season average vs. the Mavericks 62.2% of the time.

 

The Thunder are the NBA’s 3rd best scoring team this season, at 120.1 points per game. At home, they are 2nd in the league, averaging 122.1 points per contest. Looking at their pace, the Thunder are 11th in the league, averaging 99.7 possessions per game.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been carrying the Thunder’s offense of late, averaging 30.2 points per game over his last five games. Jalen Williams has averaged 18.4 points per game in his last five games while also averaging 5.4 assists. Chet Holmgren is averaging 16.5 points and 7.9 rebounds for the season.

 

When it comes to defense, the Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the best units in the league this season. They are currently 9th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 111.2. Over their last five games, they have been even better, giving up just 100.8 points per contest.

One area where the Thunder have been dominant is in the blocked shots department. They lead the NBA at 6.6 blocks per game. They have also been excellent at forcing turnovers, ranking 1st in the league in steals at 8.5 per contest.

Overall, opponents have shot just 45.2% from the field against Oklahoma City this season, which is tops in the NBA. They have been especially good at defending the paint, ranking 2nd in two-point field goal percentage allowed at 51.6%.

Betting Trends

• In their last five road games, Dallas has averaged 106 points per game while allowing 104 . The team’s record in this stretch was 3-2 while going 3-2 vs. the spread.
• Although Oklahoma City has a straight up record of 6-4 in their last ten home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 4-6. The team averaged 107 points per game in these games.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Mavericks have a straight up record of 5-5. Their record vs the spread in these games was 7-3.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Thunder have a strong straight up record of 4-1. In addition, their ATS record was 4-1 in these scenarios.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Thunder picked up a huge win on Monday on the road, helping them move home court advantage back into their favor heading into game five. Now, they are favored by 4.5 points at home, and given how they’ve been able to do a good job on Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving defensively, I like them to pick up the win and cover the spread on Wednesday.

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