Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Game 1 Pick ATS

Dallas Mavericks (50-32 SU, 55-39 ATS) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26 SU, 48-44 ATS)

When: Wednesday, May 22nd, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: Target Center, MN, Minneapolis

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Dal +4.5/Min -4.5

Total: 208

Money Line: Dallas Mavericks +152/-184

Notable Injuries

Mavericks

• Maxi Kleber (Out) Shoulder
• Luka Doncic (Probable) Knee/Ankle
• Olivier-Maxence Prosper (Out) Ankle

Timberwolves

• Mike Conley (Questionable) Calf

Game one of this Western Conference Finals matchup between the Mavericks and Timberwolves tips off at 8:30 PM ET at the Target Center in Minneapolis. The Timberwolves are the 4.5-point favorites and are -184 on the money line. The Mavericks are +152, and the over/under line is sitting at 208 points. You can catch the game on TNT.

Luka Doncic had a big game for the Mavericks, posting a triple-double with 29 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists. Doncic also shot 60% from the field and hit four threes. Derrick Jones Jr. added 22 points for the Mavericks and also hit four threes.

Overall, the Mavericks hit 16 threes and shot 51.2% from the field. As a team, they hit 47.1% of their threes. Dallas won the game 117-116 and won the series in six games. Kyrie Irving also had 22 points for the Mavericks.

Minnesota picked up a 98-90 win in their last game, closing out their series against the Nuggets in seven games. The Timberwolves picked up the win on the road, and they took the series 4-3. Their 98 points were below their season average, and they shot 39.2% from the field and 29.4% from three.

Defensively, Minnesota held Denver to 90 points and 39% shooting from the field. Both teams hit 10 threes, and the combined total of 188 points was 13.5 points below the over/under line. Jaden McDaniels led the Timberwolves with 23 points and six rebounds, and he hit 75% of his threes. Karl-Anthony Towns also added 23 points and 12 rebounds.

Recent Form

Dallas has an overall record of 50-32 this season, which has them in 5th place in the Western Conference. In non-conference games, they are 19-11 compared to 31-21 against the West.

On the road, the Mavericks are 29-18 straight-up and 31-16 against the spread. Their ATS record on the road is better than their home ATS record (24-23).

This season, the Mavs have gone 18-17 vs. the spread as underdogs and 15-20 straight-up. As the underdog, they have an average scoring differential of -5.1 points per game.

In their last two games, the Mavericks have won straight-up and vs. the spread. In their most recent game, they defeated the Thunder by a score of 117-116. The O/U line for that game was 208.5.

On average, Dallas’ games have finished with a combined scoring total of 230.5 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 208 points, and the Mavericks have a season record of 42-52 vs. the O/U.

In Minnesota’s win over the Nuggets, the teams combined for just 188 points, which was well below the O/U line of 201.5. The Timberwolves were 4.5-point underdogs in that game.

For the season, Minnesota has an O/U record of 48-45 and the under has hit in their last two games. Today’s line is set at 208 points, which is lower than their season average of 218.1.

Against the spread, Minnesota is 48-44 and they have covered in their last two games. At home, they are 21-25 ATS compared to 27-19 on the road.

Minnesota’s record of 56-26 has them in 3rd place in the Western Conference. In non-conference games, they are 19-11 compared to 37-15 against the West.

On average, Minnesota’s games have scored 218.1 points, which is higher than today’s O/U line of 208. In their games this season, the average O/U line has been 219.5.

The Historicals

The Timberwolves have had the better record vs the spread over the last 5 games, going 3-2. The team’s average scoring margin in these contests sits at 12 points per game. Over the course of these games, they averaged 224 points per game, leading a 2-3 over-under record.

Analysis

Luka Doncic is averaging 25.8 points, 8.6 assists, and 11.4 rebounds in his last five games. This has come while hitting 47.4% of his shots from the field and 44.7% of his threes. Overall, Doncic is averaging 33.9 points per game, 9.8 assists, and 9.2 rebounds. Kyrie Irving is averaging 25.6 points per game for the season and has hit 41.1% of his threes.

Dallas is averaging 117.9 points per game this season, which is 8th in the league. They are 4th in three-pointers made per game at 14.6 and 3rd in attempts at 39.5 attempts. The team’s three-point shooting percentage is 36%, which is 14th in the NBA.

So far this season, the Mavericks have been a middle of the road defensive team, allowing 114.1 points per game (17th). On the road, they have been slightly worse, giving up 114.5 points per game (16th).

Over their last five games, the Mavericks have been even better on the defensive end, holding opponents to just 103.8 points per game (4th). During that stretch, they have been especially good at defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to shoot just 30.8% from beyond the arc.

Throughout the year, opposing teams have been able to score more than their season average in 61% of their games against the Mavericks. However, opponents have been able to shoot just 47.2% from the field (15th).

Minnesota comes into the game as the NBA’s 18th-ranked scoring offense, at 113 points per game. They are also just 24th in scoring at home, with an average of 111.5 points per contest. The Timberwolves are near the bottom of the league in pace, averaging 97 possessions per game.

Anthony Edwards is averaging 24.8 points per game over his last five games, hitting 44.8% of his shots from the field in that stretch. For the season, he is averaging 25.9 points per game. Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 21.8 points per game this year, to go along with 8.3 rebounds.

When it comes to defense, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been the best in the NBA this season, allowing just 105.7 points per game. They have been even better at home, giving up just 103.1 points per contest.

Over their last five games, the Timberwolves have been even stingier, allowing just 100.8 points per game.

One area where Minnesota has excelled this season is defending the three-point line. They are third in the league in three-point percentage allowed (35.7%) and have given up just 11.3 made threes per game.

Overall, opponents have scored less than their season average in 82.9% of games vs. the Timberwolves this season.

Betting Trends

• In their last three road games, Dallas has averaged 106 points per game while allowing 106. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
• The Timberwolves are 2-1 ATS in their last three home games and 2-1 straight-up.
• Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Mavericks have a straight-up record of 6-4. But, their mark vs the spread was just 7-3.
• Going back to their previous three games as the favorite, Minnesota has an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 1-2 straight up.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Minnesota is coming off a huge comeback win over the Nuggets to punch their ticket to the Western Conference Finals and are now favored by -4.5 in game one. During the regular season, the Wolves took three of four games, and none of these games was particularly close. For game one, I like Minnesota to cover at -4.5.