Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers ATS Prediction | Jan 17

Dallas Mavericks (24-17 SU, 23-18 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (20-21 SU, 17-24 ATS)

When: Wednesday, January 17th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: Crypto.com Arena, CA, Los Angeles

TV: ABC

Point Spread: Dal +3/LAL -3

Total: 242

Money Line: Dallas Mavericks +128/-154

Notable Injuries

Mavericks

• Dante Exum (Out) Heel
• Derrick Jones Jr. (Probable) Calf
• Luka Doncic (Questionable) Ankle
• Grant Williams (Probable) Ankle

Lakers

• Anthony Davis (Probable) Ankle
• LeBron James (Questionable) Ankle
• Gabe Vincent (Out) Knee
• Cam Reddish (Out) Knee

The Lakers (-154) are favored by 3 points over the Mavericks (+128) in a Western Conference matchup. The over/under line is set at 242 points.

This game will be played at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 ET and will be televised on ABC.

Recent Form

The Mavericks have been the underdog in their last four games and have gone 7-9 straight-up as the underdog. Today, they are getting three points against the Lakers. Dallas has gone 8-8 vs. the spread as the underdog this season.

On the road, the Mavericks are 12-7 ATS compared to 11-11 ATS at home. Their straight-up road record is 11-8, and they are 14th in the Western Conference.

Dallas’ O/U record for the season is 24-17, and their games have averaged 235.8 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 242, and 33 of their games have had lower O/U lines than that.

In their last game, the Mavericks beat the Pelicans by a score of 125-120. The O/U line for that game was 236.5, and Dallas covered the spread (+4.5).

In the Western Conference, the Mavericks are currently in 5th place with a record of 24-17. Against the Western Conference, they are 18-14 and 7-5 in their division.

The Lakers are 20-21 this season and are currently 10th in the Western Conference. In games against other Western Conference teams, they are 15-14 and 5-7 against non-conference opponents.

Against the spread, the Lakers are 17-24 overall and 9-12 at home. At home, they have an average scoring margin of +4.2 points per game.

On average, the Lakers’ games have finished with 229.6 points per game, which is lower than today’s O/U line of 242. This season, their games have averaged an O/U line of 230.2.

In their last game, the Lakers beat the Thunder by a score of 112-105. They were 2.5-point underdogs going into the game. The O/U line for that game was 241 points.

For the season, the Lakers have an ATS record of 17-24. They have covered the spread in three straight games as the favorite and are 9-14 ATS as the favorite this season. As the favorite, their scoring margin is +3.5 PPG.

The Historicals

Through the last 5 matchups between the teams, Dallas has an ATS mark of 4-1. But, looking at the scoring margin in these games, an average of just 1 points per game separates the teams. A combined average of 225 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 1-4.

Analysis

Heading into tonight’s game, the Mavericks are one of the top three-point shooting teams in the league. They average 15.2 made threes per game, which is 2nd in the NBA. Overall, they are 14th in three-point shooting percentage at 37%.

On the season, Dallas is scoring 118.7 points per game, which is 7th in the NBA. However, they have been slightly better at home (120.7 PPG) compared to on the road (116.4 PPG).

When it comes to field goal percentage, the Mavericks are 16th in the league at 47%. They have been one of the more efficient teams in terms of true shooting percentage, ranking 11th in the NBA.

The Mavericks’ defense is presently ranked 20th in the league, allowing an average of 117.1 points per contest. On two point field goal attempts, the Mavericks’ defensive unit is allowing a field goal percentage of 55.6% and allowing 36.3% from beyond the arc.

This season, the Lakers have been one of the most efficient teams in the league, ranking 7th in field goal percentage and 12th in true shooting percentage. They have also been one of the top teams in terms of two-point field goal percentage at 55%.

However, the Lakers have struggled from beyond the arc, ranking last in the NBA in three-point attempts and 24th in three-point shooting percentage. Overall, they are 19th in the league in scoring at 114.1 points per game.

When playing at home, the Lakers are averaging 114.5 points per game compared to 113.6 on the road. So far this season, they have outscored the NBA scoring average in just 36.6% of their games.

So far, the Lakers’ defense is ranked 16th in the league at 115.5 points per contest. In terms of takeaways, the Lakers are causing 13.9 turnovers per game, ranking 22nd in the league. They also enter the matchup ranked 10th in rejections, averaging 5.6 blocked shots each game.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past five road matchups, Dallas has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 111 per game. The team went 2-3 overall in these games.
• Across their last five home contests, Los Angeles has a 3-2 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 1-4, while averaging 116 points per game.
• Dallas has done well both straight up and vs the spread as the underdog, going 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three games.
• As the betting favorite, the Lakers have an ATS mark of just 1-4 in their last five games. Los Angeles posted a straight up mark of 2-3 in these matchups.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

There is some hope that Luka Doncic will be able to return to action today after missing three games. However, I still see the Lakers picking up the win tonight and covering the spread at -3 point favorites. Look for a big game from Anthony Davis for the Lakers.