Dallas Mavericks vs. LA Clippers Game 5 Pick

Dallas Mavericks (50-32 SU, 50-36 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (51-31 SU, 40-46 ATS)

When: Wednesday, May 1st, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Crypto.com Arena, CA, Los Angeles

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Dal -3/LAC +3

Total: 207.5

Money Line: Dallas Mavericks -151/+126

Notable Injuries

Mavericks

• Tim Hardaway Jr. (Out) Ankle
• Luka Doncic (Probable) Knee
• Olivier-Maxence Prosper (Out) Ankle

Clippers

• Kawhi Leonard (Out) Knee

The Clippers and Mavericks head into game five of their first-round series tied at 2-2, with the Mavericks as 3-point favorites. The over/under line is at 207.5, and Dallas is -151 on the money line compared to +126 for the Clippers. Tip-off is at 10:00 PM ET from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles and can be seen on TNT.

James Harden and Paul George each hit seven threes and scored 33 points to lead the Clippers to a 116-111 win in the most recent game of this Clippers/Mavericks series. The Clippers jumped out to a 39-16 lead in the first quarter, and the Mavericks never could fully recover. The Clippers were 7-point underdogs heading into the game and easily covered the spread.

Going into the game, the over/under line was 209.5 points, and the teams surpassed that with 227 combined points. Kyrie Irving led all scorers with 40 points, and he also hit six threes. However, the Mavericks as a team made just 11 threes on 33.3% shooting from beyond the arc.

Recent Form

In today’s game against the Clippers, the Mavericks are favored by 3 points. This season, they have been favored in 54 of their 82 games and have gone 39-15 in those games. As the favorite, they have an average scoring margin of +6.6 points per game.

When looking at their ATS record, the Mavericks are 50-36 for the season and have gone 28-15 ATS on the road. Today’s O/U line of 207.5 is lower than their season average of 233.9 points per game.

The Mavericks are 5th in the Western Conference with a record of 50-32. In their last game against the Clippers, they lost by a score of 116-111. The O/U line for that game was 209.5 points.

For the season, the Mavericks have gone 38-48 on the over/under. In their last game vs. the Clippers, the teams combined for 227 points, which was higher than the O/U line of 209.5.

In non-conference games, the Mavericks have gone 19-11 compared to 31-21 against Western Conference opponents. On the road, they are 26-17 straight-up and 28-15 ATS.

In their games this season, the Clippers have averaged a combined scoring total of 226.8 points, which is higher than today’s O/U line of 207.5. Overall, their games have averaged an O/U line of 227.1 points.

As the underdog, the Clippers have gone 7-15 this season and are 8-14 ATS as the underdog. In their 116-111 win over the Mavericks, they were 7-point underdogs.

Against the spread, the Clippers are 19-24 at home and 21-22 on the road. Their overall ATS record is 40-46, and they have covered the spread in their last three games as the underdog.

In the Western Conference standings, the Clippers finished 4th with a record of 51-31. Within the Pacific Division, they were 9-7 and are currently in 1st place.

Los Angeles’ last game was also against the Mavericks, and they won by a score of 116-111. The O/U line for that game was 209.5, and the Clippers were 7-point underdogs going into the game.

The Historicals

Spanning across the last 5 head-to-head matchups, the Mavericks and Clippers have been competitive, with an average margin of victory sitting at just -2 points per game. This has resulted in a 3-2 ATS record for Los Angeles. Dallas and Los Angeles averaged a combined 208 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 1-4.

Analysis

Dallas is one of the top three-point shooting teams in the league this season, as they are 3rd in both three-point attempts and makes. On average, they are getting up 39.5 three-point attempts per game and hitting 14.6 of them. Overall, they have hit 36% of their three-point attempts, which is 15th in the NBA. Luka Doncic is averaging 29 points per game over his last four games while hitting 38.6% of his shots from the field and 38.2% of his threes for the season. In these games, he also averaged 9.8 rebounds and 8.5 assists.

For Kyrie Irving, he is averaging 28.8 points per game in his last four games. In these games, he shot 51.3% from the field and 48.5% from beyond the arc. Irving also averaged 6 rebounds and 4.5 assists in these games. The Mavericks are 8th in scoring this season, at 117.9 points per game.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Dallas Mavericks have struggled this season, allowing 115.0 points per game, which is 18th in the NBA. They have been slightly better on the road, giving up 115.5 points per game away from home.

Over their last five games, the Mavericks have given up 108.6 points per game, which is 15th in the league during that stretch. During this stretch, opposing teams have shot 42.9% from three-point range, which is 30th in the NBA.

On the season, Dallas has given up more than their opponents’ season average in 61.0% of their games, while opponents have made fewer threes than their season average in 43.9% of their games against the Mavericks.

Overall, the Clippers are the 12th ranked scoring offense this season, at 115.6 points per game. At home, they are 15th in the league, with an average of 114.7 points per contest. Los Angeles is near the bottom of the league in pace, averaging 96.6 possessions per game.

James Harden has been shooting the ball well for the Clippers of late, hitting 54.1% of his shots from the field in his last four games. In these games, he averaged 26 points per game. Over this stretch, Paul George has averaged 21 points per game on 45.3% shooting. For the season, George is averaging 22.6 points per game. The Clippers will be without Kawhi Leonard, who averaged 23.7 points per game.

On the season, the Clippers have allowed 111.8 points per game, which is 11th in the league. At home, they are giving up 111.6 points per game, which is 14th in the NBA.

Over their last five games, the Clippers have been even stingier on defense, allowing just 104.2 points per game, which is 7th in the league during that stretch.

One area where the Clippers have been solid all season is in steals. They are 9th in the NBA in steals per game at 7.8.

Los Angeles has also done a good job of not fouling, as they are 14th in personal fouls per game.

On the season, opponents have made 36.1% of their three-point attempts vs. the Clippers, which is 14th in the league.

Over their last five games, the Clippers have been even better from beyond the arc, holding opponents to just 32.1% shooting from three, which is 8th in the NBA during that stretch.

Betting Trends

• Across the Mavericks last ten road games, the team averaged 109 points per game while allowing 104. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 7-3, while going 7-3 straight-up.
• Through their last five home contests, the Clippers offense has averaged 107 points per game while allowing an average of 106. Los Angeles posted an overall record of 3-2 while going 2-3 ATS.
• Looking back on the team’s last five games as the underdog, the Clippers have a straight up record of 2-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 2-3.
• In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Mavericks have a straight up record of 6-4 and an ATS mark of 6-4.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Clippers have some momentum coming into this one, as they picked up a huge win in game four on the road. Now they head back home and are still three-point underdogs on the spread. Even though the Mavs have already won in LA in this series, I see the Clippers picking up a win in this one, and I actually like them on the money line.