Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors: Point Spread Play

Dallas Mavericks (16-9 SU, 14-10 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (14-10 SU, 15-9 ATS)

When: Sunday, December 15th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: Chase Center, CA, San Francisco

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Dal -2/GS +2

Total: 231

Money Line: Dallas Mavericks -138/+116

Notable Injuries

Mavericks

• Dante Exum (Out) Wrist
• Maxi Kleber (Out) Rib
• Naji Marshall (Out) Illness
• Brandon Williams (Out) Thumb
• Jaden Hardy (Out) Ankle

Warriors

• Stephen Curry (Questionable) Back
• Andrew Wiggins (Questionable) Ankle
• De’Anthony Melton (Out) ACL
• Moses Moody (Out) Knee

At 8:30 ET, the Dallas Mavericks (-138) will take on the Golden State Warriors (+116) in a Western Conference matchup. The Mavericks are currently 4th in the West with a record of 16-9, while the Warriors are 5th at 14-10. The over/under line for the game is 231 points.

This game will be played at the Chase Center in San Francisco and can be seen on NBCS.

Recent Form

The Mavericks fell to 16-9 on the season after a 118-104 road loss to the Thunder on Tuesday. Dallas entered the game as +4.5 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 222, falling short of the 230-point line.

A 13-0 run by the Thunder early in the game put Dallas on their heels. The Mavericks responded by winning the 2nd quarter 30-25, but a rough 3rd quarter, where they were outscored 33-19, left them trailing 90-73 heading into the 4th. Despite a 31-point effort in the final quarter, Dallas couldn’t close the gap.

The Warriors fell to 14-10 on the season after a 91-90 road loss to the Rockets on Wednesday. Despite being +3.5 point underdogs, Golden State kept it close, losing by just one point. The game’s total of 181 points was well below the 220.5-point line.

Golden State trailed 44-37 at halftime but surged ahead with a 32-24 third quarter. However, they couldn’t hold the lead, as Houston edged them 23-21 in the final period.

The Historicals

Over the last five head to head meetings, the Mavericks have averaged 113 points per game compared to 110 for Golden State. This has led to an ATS record of 3-2 for Dallas. Over the course of these games, they averaged 223 points per game, leading a 2-3 over-under record.

Analysis

Naji Marshall and Klay Thompson each scored 19 points for the Mavericks in their 118-104 loss to the Thunder. Thompson hit five threes at a 50% rate, while Kyrie Irving added 17 points, connecting on three threes at 60% efficiency.

The Mavericks made 15 threes as a team, shooting 41.7% from beyond the arc and 47.5% overall. Thompson scored 8 points in both the 1st and 4th quarters, while Irving and Luka Dončić also added 8 points in the final period.

The Mavericks gave up 118 points to the Thunder, allowing 32 points in the 1st and 33 in the 3rd. Their best defensive effort came in the 2nd quarter, where they allowed 25 points.

Dallas struggled to defend the three, as Oklahoma City hit 20 threes at a 40% clip. The Mavericks sent the Thunder to the line just 7 times, where they made six free throws. Defensively, Dallas recorded ten steals and two blocks.

In their 91-90 loss to the Rockets, the Warriors struggled offensively, shooting 44% from the field and hitting just 31.6% of their three-point attempts, making 12 threes overall. Jonathan Kuminga led the way with 20 points and seven rebounds, while Stephen Curry added 19 points and five assists, connecting on three threes at 33.3% efficiency.

Buddy Hield also hit three threes, finishing with 15 points, including 11 in the 3rd quarter. Kuminga scored 8 of his 20 points in the opening period, adding six more in the 3rd.

Despite a strong defensive effort, the Warriors fell to the Rockets, 91-90, on Wednesday. Golden State held Houston to 20 points in the 1st quarter and 23 in the 4th, giving up 24 points in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters.

The Warriors limited the Rockets to just 6 made threes on 22% shooting from deep. Houston also went to the line only 10 times, hitting nine free throws. Defensively, Golden State recorded 13 steals and eight blocks.

Betting Trends

• Dallas has played well in their previous five road games, going 4-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 121 points per game while allowing 112. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
• When looking at their past three home matchups, Golden State has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 103 per game. The team went 0-3 overall in these games.
• Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the Warriors have a straight-up record of 1-2. Their record vs the spread in these games was 2-1.
• Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Mavericks have a straight-up record of 8-2. But their mark vs the spread was just 7-3.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The big injury to watch in tonight’s matchup is if Steph Curry is going to give it a go. Right now, he is questionable with a back injury. Curry played in Wednesday’s loss to Houston and came up with 19 points in 34 minutes of action. Dallas is currently favored by -2, and this is the way I’ll be playing this one. I like Dallas to pick up a big road win, and have them covering tonight.