Dallas Mavericks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Point Spread Pick

Dallas Mavericks (33-24 SU, 30-27 ATS) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (37-19 SU, 28-26 ATS)

When: Tuesday, February 27th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, OH, Cleveland

TV: BSOH

Point Spread: Dal +4.5/Cle -4.5

Total: 233

Money Line: Dallas Mavericks +152/-185

Notable Injuries

Mavericks

• Dante Exum (Doubtful) Knee
• Maxi Kleber (Probable) Nose
• Luka Doncic (Probable) Nose
• Josh Green (Probable) Elbow
• Dereck Lively II (Probable) Nose

Cavaliers

• Tristan Thompson (Out) Suspension
• Ty Jerome (Out) Ankle

At 7:00 ET, the Dallas Mavericks head to Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse to take on the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs are currently favored by 4.5 points and have a record of 37-19, which has them second in the Eastern Conference.

As for the Mavericks, they are 33-24 and are 8th in the Western Conference. The over/under line for this non-conference matchup is currently set at 233 points.

Recent Form

In their games this season, the Mavericks have seen an average of 236 points scored, which is slightly higher than today’s line of 233. Dallas has also seen an average O/U line of 236.1 points per game.

The Mavericks’ last four games have all gone under the O/U line, and today’s line is currently at 233. In their most recent game against the Pacers, the two teams combined for 244 points, falling short of the O/U line of 252.

On the season, the Mavericks have an O/U record of 28-29. In non-conference games, their O/U record is 12-6, compared to 16-23 against Western Conference opponents.

Coming into today’s game, the Mavericks are 9-15 as underdogs this season, and they are 10-14 ATS in those games. On the road, they are 16-10 ATS, and their overall ATS record is 30-27.

In their last game, the Mavericks lost to the Pacers by a score of 133-111. Dallas was favored by 2 points in that game, and they did not cover the spread. The O/U line for that game was 252 points.

This season, the Mavericks are 33-24 overall, which puts them in 8th place in the Western Conference. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 21-18, and they are 8-5 against teams in the Southwest Division.

In their last game, the Cavaliers defeated the Wizards by a score of 114-105. The combined scoring in the game was 219 points, which was below the O/U line of 235.

Cleveland’s ATS record for the season is 28-26, and they have failed to cover the spread in their last five games. Today, they are favored by 4.5 points and have gone 19-18 ATS as the favorite.

The Cavs are 37-19 on the season, which is good for 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. Against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 25-13 and 8-4 in their division. In non-conference play, they are 12-6.

On average, Cleveland’s games have seen a combined scoring total of 223.6 points, and today’s O/U line is set at 233. The team’s O/U record for the season is 25-30-1, and their last two games have gone under.

Looking at their ATS record, the Cavaliers are 14-15 at home and 14-11 on the road. Their straight-up home record is 19-10, and they are 18-9 on the road.

The Historicals

Across the previous 5 meetings between the teams, the Cavaliers have an average scoring margin of +5 points per game, leading to an ATS mark of 3-2. Over the course of these games, they averaged 211 points per game, leading a 1-3-1 over-under record.

Analysis

Heading into their matchup against the Cavaliers, the Mavericks are 7th in the NBA in scoring at 118.6 points per game. However, they have actually been slightly better on the road, averaging 116.4 points compared to 120.5 at home.

One of the keys to the Mavericks’ offensive success has been their three-point shooting. They are 2nd in the league in both three-point attempts and makes at 40.2 and 15.1 per game, respectively.

Overall, Dallas is shooting 47% from the field, which is 13th in the NBA. In terms of two-point shooting, they are 9th in percentage at 56%.

Coming into today’s game, the Mavericks’ defense is giving up an average of 117.4 points per contest. In terms of takeaways, the Mavericks are causing 12 turnovers per game, ranking 7th in the league. They also enter the matchup ranked 24th in rejections, averaging 4.5 blocked shots each game.

This season, the Cavaliers have been an above-average offensive team, ranking 16th in scoring at 114.4 points per game. However, they have been slightly better at home, averaging 115.9 points compared to 112.9 on the road.

So far, Cleveland has outscored the NBA scoring average in 44.6% of their games. In terms of pace, the Cavaliers are 22nd in the league at 97.6 possessions per game.

When it comes to shooting, the Cavaliers are 12th in field goal percentage at 48%. They have been particularly efficient inside the arc, making 57% of their two-point attempts (5th).

At present, the Cavaliers’ defense is ranked 2nd, allowing 109.2 points per game. Opponents are hitting 51.7% of their two-point field goal attempts this season, and they’re also connecting on 36.0% of their three-point attempts.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past ten road matchups, Dallas has an ATS record of 6-4 while averaging 114 per game. The team went 5-5 overall in these games.
• Across their ten previous home games, Cleveland has an ATS mark of 5-5. Their straight up record in these matchups was 8-2 while averaging 114 points per game.
• As the betting underdog, the Mavericks have an ATS mark of just 2-3 in their last five games. Dallas posted a straight up mark of 2-3 in these matchups.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Cavaliers have a straight up record of 1-2 and an ATS mark of 0-3.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Cavaliers sputtered out of the All-Start Break, falling to the Magic at home and then the Sixers without Joel Embiid. They did recover with a win over the Wizards but have a much tougher matchup vs. Dallas. On the other side, the Mavs were riding high before getting smoked by the Pacers. I’m expecting this one to come right down the wire and like the Mavs to cover at +4.5.