Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics Game 5 Best Bet

Dallas Mavericks (50-32 SU, 60-42 ATS) vs. Boston Celtics (64-18 SU, 50-45 ATS)

When: Monday, June 17th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: TD Garden, MA, Boston

TV: ABC

Point Spread: Dal +6.5/Bos -6.5

Total: 209.5

Money Line: Dallas Mavericks +217/-270

Notable Injuries

Mavericks

• Luka Doncic (Probable) Thoracic

Celtics

• Kristaps Porzingis (Questionable) Lower Leg

With the Celtics leading the NBA Finals 3-1, game five is set for 8:30 PM ET on Monday, June 17th, at the TD Garden in Boston. The Celtics, the 1 seed in the East, are favored by -6.5 points, and the over/under is 209.5 points.

After a 122-84 win in the most recent game of this series, the Mavericks will be looking for another win in this game. Dallas was a +1 underdog in the last game and easily covered the spread. The over/under line for the game was 211.5 points, and the teams fell just short of that mark with 206 combined points.

The Mavericks got off to a hot start in the last game, outscoring the Celtics 34-21 in the first quarter. Luka Doncic led all scorers with 29 points, and Kyrie Irving added 21 points. Dallas held the Celtics to just 36.2% shooting from the field and 14 made threes.

Recent Form

Dallas has an O/U record of 46-57 this season, and the under has hit in their last four games. This year, their games have averaged 228.7 points per game compared to today’s line of 209.5.

In terms of their ATS record, the Mavericks are 60-42 overall and 34-17 on the road. As the underdog, they are 22-18 vs. the spread and have covered in their last two games as the underdog.

The Mavericks are currently 5th in the Western Conference with a record of 50-32. Against the West, they are 31-21 and 19-11 in non-conference games.

In their last game against the Celtics, the Mavericks won by a score of 122-84. They were also 1-point underdogs going into the game. This season, the Mavs are 19-22 as the underdog.

Previous O/U vs. Today’s Line

Dallas’ games have averaged 230.3 points per game this season, which is higher than today’s line of 209.5. In games with higher O/U lines than 209.5, their record is 95-6.

Today’s over/under line of 209.5 is lower than 94 of the Celtics’ games this season. They have hit the under in their last five games and have a season over/under record of 51-48-1.

The Celtics are 50-45 against the spread this season, including a home ATS record of 27-21 and 23-24 on the road. As the favorite, they are 47-43 ATS and 3-2 as the favorite.

In their last game against the Mavericks, the Celtics were favored by 1 point but lost by a score of 122-84. This dropped their overall record to 64-18, but they are still in 1st place in the Eastern Conference.

Boston’s O/U record for the season is 51-48-1, and their games have averaged a combined 226.3 points. Today’s line of 209.5 is lower than their season average of 226.1.

The Historicals

In terms of betting, Boston has an ATS record of 3-1-1 in the previous 5 matchups vs Dallas. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +5 points per game in favor of the Celtics. The over-under record in these same games is 1-4, with the teams combining for an average of 211 points per game.

Analysis

Dallas comes into the game as one of the top three-point shooting teams in the league, ranking 4th in both three-point attempts and makes per game. Overall, they are 15th in three-point shooting at 36%. Looking at their field goal percentage, the Mavericks are 11th in the NBA. For the season, Luka Doncic is averaging 33.9 points, 9.8 assists and 9.2 rebounds.

Doncic has been playing well of late, averaging 30.8 points per game on 50% shooting in his last five games. Over this stretch, he pulled down 8.4 rebounds per game. Tim Hardaway Jr. is averaging 14.4 points per game for the season and 2.7 made threes per game.

On the season, the Mavericks are 13th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 113.1. Opponents are shooting 47.0% from the field against Dallas, which is also 13th in the league. In terms of rebounding, the Mavericks are 17th in the NBA at 42.9 boards per contest.

Over their last five games, the Mavericks have been even better defensively, giving up just 101 points per game. During that stretch, opponents are shooting just 43.6% from the field against Dallas.

When it comes to defending the three-point line, the Mavericks are allowing opponents to shoot 36.4% from beyond the arc, which is 16th in the NBA. On the season, opposing teams are making 12.9 threes per game against Dallas.

Offensively, the Celtics are averaging 120.6 points per game this season, which is the 3rd best mark in the league. They have been even better at home, at 121.2 points per game. Boston leads the league in three-point attempts this season, averaging 42.5 attempts per game, and are also the league leaders in three-pointers made, at 16.5 per contest.

Jayson Tatum is averaging 26.9 points per game this season, to go along with 8.1 rebounds and 4.9 assists. Over his last five games, he has hit 2.4 threes per game, but at a rate of 28.6%. Jaylen Brown has hit 30.3% of his threes over his last five games, while averaging 22.4 points on 49.4% shooting.

When it comes to defense, the Boston Celtics have been one of the best units in the league this season, allowing just 107.8 points per game, which is 3rd best in the NBA. They have been especially tough at home, giving up just 106.9 points per contest, which is 4th in the league.

One area where the Celtics have excelled is in their ability to limit opponents’ free throw attempts. On the season, they are giving up just 16.8 made free throws per game, which is tops in the NBA. Over their last five games, they have been even better, allowing just 13.8 made free throws per contest.

When it comes to steals, the Celtics have struggled this season, ranking just 28th in the league at 6.8 steals per game. However, they have been one of the best shot-blocking teams in the NBA, averaging 6.6 blocks per contest, which is 2nd best in the league.

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Mavericks have a straight up record of 7-3 while going 7-2-1 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 106 points per game in these contests.
• Through their last three home games, Boston has an ATS record of just 1-2. However, their overall record was 2-1 while averaging 98 points per game.
• As the betting underdog, the Mavericks have an ATS mark of just 7-2-1 in their last ten games. Dallas posted a straight up mark of 7-3 in these matchups.
• Through their last three matchups as the betting favorite, the Celtics have a good straight up record, but their ATS mark is just 1-1-1.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Dallas came out swinging in Game 4, building a build lead in the first quarter and holding the Celtics to just 14 points in the 2nd quarter to 61-35 at the half. But, with a chance to close things out on their home floor, I see Boston striking early tonight and closing this series out. Not only do I like the Celtics to win, but I see them covering at -6.5.