Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics Game 1 Pick & Analysis

Dallas Mavericks (50-32 SU, 59-40 ATS) vs. Boston Celtics (64-18 SU, 48-44 ATS)

When: Thursday, June 6th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: TD Garden, MA, Boston

TV: ABC

Point Spread: Dal +6.5/Bos -6.5

Total: 214.5

Money Line: Dallas Mavericks +200/-247

Notable Injuries

Mavericks

• Olivier-Maxence Prosper (Out) Ankle

Celtics

• Kristaps Porzingis (Probable) Calf

Game one of the NBA Finals between the 5th-seeded Mavericks and the top-seeded Celtics is set for 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, June 6th, at the TD Garden in Boston. The game will be televised on ABC, with the Celtics favored by -6.5 points. The over/under is 214.5 points.

The Mavericks are coming off a 124-103 win over the Timberwolves, which closed out their series vs. Minnesota. Dallas won the series 4-1 and picked up the clinching win on Minnesota’s home floor. The Mavericks’ offense was on fire, as they hit 15 threes and shot 54.8% from the field.

Leading the Mavericks in scoring was Kyrie Irving, who finished with 36 points and added five rebounds. Luka Doncic also had 36 points and added 10 rebounds. As a team, Dallas hit 15 threes and shot 44.1% from beyond the arc.

Jaylen Brown’s 29 points led the Celtics to a 105-102 win over the Pacers, as Boston closed out the series in four games. The Celtics won the series 4-0 and picked up the series-clinching win on the road. Heading into the game, the over/under line was 222.5 points, and the teams combined for 207 points, finishing 15.5 points below the over/under line.

Offensively, the Celtics hit 14 threes, but shot just 31.8% from beyond the arc. Jaylen Brown finished with 29 points and hit four threes on 50% shooting. Jayson Tatum added 26 points and 13 rebounds, while Jrue Holiday finished with 17 points.

Recent Form

The Mavericks have an O/U record of 46-53-0 this season, and their games have averaged a combined 229.8 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 214.5.

This season, Dallas has averaged an O/U line of 230.9 points per game, and 87 of their games have had higher O/U lines than today’s. In games with higher O/U lines, the Mavericks have gone 38-49 on the over/under.

In their last game against the Timberwolves, the teams combined for 227 points, surpassing the O/U line of 209.5. The Mavericks won the game by a score of 124-103.

As underdogs, the Mavericks have a straight-up record of 18-20 and an ATS record of 21-17. They have covered the spread in their last five games as underdogs.

On the road, the Mavericks have an average scoring differential of +1.5 points per game. Their ATS record on the road is 34-16, and they have won five straight games on the road.

In the Western Conference, the Mavericks are in 5th place with a record of 50-32. Within the Southwest Division, they are in 1st place.

In their last game against the Pacers, the Celtics won by a score of 105-102. The O/U line for that game was 222.5, and the teams combined for 207 points. Boston was favored by 7.5 points in that game, giving them a 3-point ATS loss.

This season, the Celtics have an O/U record of 51-44-1, and their games have averaged 227.3 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 214.5.

Boston is currently on a seven-game winning streak and has a record of 64-18, which is the best in the Eastern Conference. In the East, they have gone 41-11 and are 1st in the Atlantic Division.

At home, the Celtics have an average scoring differential of +14.4 points per game. This season, they are 43-6 at home and have won three straight games ATS at home.

Against the spread, the Celtics are 48-44 this season and have gone 46-42 as the favorite. As the favorite, their ATS scoring margin is +11.8 points per game.

The Historicals

The ATS record across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings is 4-1 in favor of the Celtics. In these matchups, Boston has averaged 119 points per game, while allowing 104. The over-under record in these same games is 2-3, with the teams combining for an average of 223 points per game.

Analysis

Looking at Luka Doncic’s last five games, he has averaged 32.4 points per game on 47.3% shooting. In these games, he hit 4.6 threes per contest. Doncic is averaging 33.9 points per game this season, to go along with 9.8 assists and 9.2 rebounds. Kyrie Irving’s season scoring average is 25.6 points per game, and he has averaged 27 points per game in his last five games. For the year, he is averaging 5.2 assists.

Dallas is currently 4th in the league in three-point attempts, getting up 39.5 attempts per game. Their average of 14.6 made threes per contest is also 4th in the NBA. The team’s overall three-point shooting percentage is 36%, which is 13th in the league. Overall, the Mavericks are averaging 117.9 points per game, which is 9th in the league.

On the season, the Mavericks have given up 113.6 points per game, which is 16th in the NBA. On the road, they have given up 113.9 points per game, which is also 16th. In their last five games, they have been the 5th best defense, giving up just 105.6 points per contest.

Opponents have made more threes than their season average in 64.6% of games against Dallas. Overall, the Mavericks are 16th in three-point percentage defense, allowing opponents to shoot 36.5% from beyond the arc. For the season, they are 14th in made free throws allowed per game.

On the glass, Dallas is 17th in rebounds per game and 15th in defensive rebounds per game. They are also 13th in blocked shots per game. In terms of steals, they are 25th in the league.

Coming into the game, the Celtics are the NBA’s 2nd ranked scoring offense, at 120.6 points per game. They have been even better at home, with an average of 121.8 points per contest. In terms of three-point shooting, the Celtics are the league leaders in both three-point shooting percentage and three-pointers made per game.

Jayson Tatum has been playing well of late, with an average of 29.2 points per game in his last five games. This has come while shooting 47.7% from the field. He also averaged 10.2 rebounds and 6.8 assists in those games. Jaylen Brown has averaged 26 points per game in his last five games, while hitting 51% of his shots from the field.

When it comes to defense, the Boston Celtics are one of the best in the league, ranking 3rd in points allowed per game at 108.1. They have been even better at home, giving up just 107.4 points per game, which is 4th in the NBA.

One of the reasons for their success has been their ability to protect the rim, as they are 2nd in blocked shots per game at 6.6. They have also done a great job of not fouling, ranking 29th in personal fouls.

Despite their strong defense, opponents have been able to shoot 45.5% from the field against Boston. Over their last five games, that number has jumped up to 50.1%.

Betting Trends

• In their last five road games, Dallas has averaged 112 points per game while allowing 103. The team’s record in this stretch was 5-0 while going 5-0 vs. the spread.
• Across the Celtics’ last five home games, the team averaged 107 points per game while allowing 99. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 2-3 while going 5-0 straight-up.
• Dallas has done well both straight up and vs. the spread as the underdog, going 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three games.
• Against the spread, the Celtics have put together of 1-4 in their last five games as the betting favorite. In these same games, they went 5-0 straight up.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

After sweeping the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Celtics have been off for an extended period, as their last game was on May 27th. Although there is always a potential for some rust with that amount of time off, I see the Celtics coming out strong. Look for the return of Kristaps Porzingis to play a big role as the Celtics not only take game one but cover the spread at -6.5.

Be sure to check out our new feature writer Richard Dressler, as he battles the bookies! Rich is an ex-sportsbook director and has a ton of great insights! You can find his daily piece on our homepage or our sports betting section!