Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings Pick ATS 12/29/21

When: Wednesday, Dec. 29th, 2021, 10:30 pm (ET)

Where: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA

TV: NBA TV/Bally Sports

Point Spread: DAL -1.5/SAC +1.5 (Opened at 1.5 at (BetNow – They offer the biggest sportsbook bonus on the web! Deposit $100 to $1000 and they’ll match it dollar for dollar with a 100% REAL CASH bonus!)

Total: 219.5 (Opened at 219.5)

Money Line: DAL -120/SAC +100

Power Rating: PK

Probable Starting Lineups

Dallas Mavericks: PG Jalen Brunson, SG Frank Ntilikina, SF Dorian Finney-Smith, C Kristaps Porzingis, C Dwight Powell

Sacramento Kings: PG Tyrese Haliburton, PG De’Aaron Fox, SF Harrison Barnes, PF Marvin Bagley, C Richaun Holmes

Key Injuries

Dallas Mavericks: G Luka Doncic *Out* (Covid), G Jaquori McLaughlin *Out* (Covid), G Trey Burke *Out* (Covid), F Tim Hardaway Jr. *Out* (Covid), F Maxi Kleber *Out* (Covid), C Willie Cauley-Stein *Out* (Personal)

Sacramento Kings: C Neemias Queta *Out* (Covid), G Davion Mitchell *Out* (Covid)

Recent Form

The Dallas Mavericks enter this game with a 16-17 record and 8th in the Western Conference. After a strong start to the season, the Mavericks have slipped below .500 in the absence of star guard Luka Doncic. Between injuries and covid protocols, Doncic has now missed 12 of the team’s 33 games. In recent weeks, Dallas has faced another tough stretch, losing six of their last eight games, though they have an opportunity to build off their win against the Trail Blazers. In that game against Portland, they managed to put up 132 points, which is impressive given how hard it has been for teams to go into Portland and win, let alone be that productive from the floor. As they play the Kings twice in the next two days, the Mavericks have a prime opportunity to get back above .500 with wins over one of the West’s worst teams this season. The Mavericks are led in scoring by Doncic, who is averaging 25.6 PPG. As a team, the Mavericks are 25th offensively, scoring 105.6 PPG. Defensively, they are ranked 6th, giving up 105.5 PPG.

The Sacramento Kings are 14-21 and currently sit 12th and one full game out of the play-in tournament. The Kings were able to snap their three-game losing streak last night after beating the Thunder 117-111. With ground to make up in the West, the Kings have a chance to get back into the mix as five of their next seven games are against teams who have a losing record. With one of the league’s worst defenses, the Kings will have to develop some new defensive schemes as games will only get tougher as the top teams get hot and start to separate from the pack. Sacramento is led by De’Aaron Fox, who is averaging 21.0 points per game this season. Offensively, the Kings are 10th in the league, scoring 110.1 PPG. Defensively, the Kings are 28th, only ahead of the Hornets and Rockets, allowing 114.3 PPG.

Pace of Play

This Western Conference matchup features two teams with very different basketball styles, meaning a clash of paces on the court. The Kings are the third-fastest team for pace with 104.5 possessions per game. With a top 10 offense that averages among the top teams for Fastbreak points and attempted shots per game, the Kings will have a tough go against a Dallas defense that is among the best in both of those statistics. The Dallas Mavericks are currently the third slowest team in the NBA, averaging 99.4 possessions per game. Dallas hangs their hat on keeping the ball away from opposing teams, as they are 3rd in the league, allowing 85.2 shot attempts per game. Also aiding their slow pace is their efficiency on the boards, allowing the second least offensive rebounds per game at 9.2. By minimizing second chance opportunities and taking care of the ball with very few steals and turnovers allowed this season, I see the Mavericks taking control of the pace once again and keeping the ball away from the Kings offense.

Dallas Covers on the Road

While the Mavericks have a losing record on the road this season at 8-9, they have been solid for bettors with a 10-7 record against the spread. In a shorter span, the Mavericks have been able to cover in four of their last five road games against teams like the Jazz and Trail Blazers, who are typically dominant at home. Heading into Sacramento against a team that has a losing record at home, a 1.5 point spread as a road favorite is a cover that is more than manageable for this Dallas team.

Kings at Home

The Kings have struggled at home this season with an 8-11 record at Golden 1 Center. In their last ten home games, the Kings are also 3-7 ATS and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog. Teams with good defenses have been able to come into Sacramento and suppress the Kings offense, holding them to 108.4 PPG vs. their 112.3 PPG on the road. The Mavericks have one of those top defenses that will again hold the Kings below their season average and steal a road game that they desperately need to keep up in the West.

The Historicals

Wednesday will be the second time these teams face this season with the first one taking place back in October. The first matchup ended in a Mavericks win 105-99. In recent years the series has been very close with the edge in favor of Dallas, who has won four of their last seven games against Sacramento.

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How the Public is Betting the Mavericks vs. Kings

67% are betting the Mavericks against the spread.

53% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 219.5.

Betting Trends Worth Noting

• The Dallas Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite.
• The Dallas Mavericks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.
• The Sacramento Kings are 3-7 ATS in their last ten games.
• The Sacramento Kings are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog.
• The Dallas Mavericks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games in Sacramento.
• The Under is 4-0 in the Mavericks’ last four games as a favorite.
• The Under is 7-2 in the Kings’ last nine games playing on 0 days’ rest.
• The Under is 5-0 in the last five games between these teams.

Collin’s Pick for Mavericks/Kings

This Western Conference matchup features a top 10 offense and top 10 defense going head-to-head. The Mavericks and Kings both come off a win, though both have struggled over the past few weeks. The Kings offense seems to travel well but gets shut down at home against teams with good defenses. With Dallas’ #6 defense, I expect them to use their slow pace to keep the ball away from the Kings and steal a game in Sacramento, a place where they’ve struggled in recent years. Take the Dallas Mavericks to cover the 1.5-point spread. Bet your NBA picks for FREE this week by scoring a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $50 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! (Must use bonus code PREDICT100).