Clippers vs. Suns Predictions: Can the Clippers Pull Off an Upset?

Phoenix Suns (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

When: Wednesday, October 23rd, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Intuit Dome, CA, Inglewood

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Pho -5.5/LAC +5.5

Total: 224.5

Money Line: Phoenix Suns -203/+171

Notable Injuries

Suns

• Damion Lee (Probable) Hamstring
• Grayson Allen (Probable) Achilles
• Josh Okogie (Out) Hamstring

Clippers

• Kawhi Leonard (Out) Knee
• P.J. Tucker (Out) Not With Team
• Mo Bamba (Out) Knee

At 10:00 ET, the Suns (-203) will take on the Clippers (+171) in a Western Pacific Division matchup. The over/under line is currently set at 224.5.

Last year, Phoenix finished 6th in the Western Conference and 2nd in the Pacific Division. The Clippers, on the other hand, were 4th in the West and 1st in the Pacific.

Recent Form

The Suns finished last season with a 49-33 record, placing 6th in the Western Conference. They were 25-16 at home and 24-17 on the road. Heading into this season, we have Phoenix ranked 11th in our power rankings, with a 62.6% chance of making the playoffs and a 28.7% chance of winning their division.

Last season, Phoenix went 9-9 in division games, finishing 2nd in the Pacific Division. They were favored in 61 games, going 40-21 in those matchups. Their average O/U line was 230.9 points, and they had a 36-45-1 O/U record, with their games averaging 229.4 points per game.

The Clippers enter the season ranked 23rd in our power rankings, with a 47.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 15.9% chance of winning the division. Last season, they finished 51-31, placing 1st in the Pacific Division and 4th in the Western Conference. They were 25-16 at home and 26-15 on the road.

Against the spread, the Clippers went 37-45, with an O/U record of 38-43-1. Their games averaged 228 points. As the favorite, they were 46-17, but they struggled as the underdog, going 5-14.

The Historicals

The ATS record across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings is 4-1 in favor of the Clippers. In these matchups, Los Angeles has averaged 122 points per game, while allowing 117. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 4-1. Combined, they averaged 239 points in these games.

Analysis

Ranked 7th in our offensive power rankings, the Suns averaged 116.2 points per game last season, placing 10th in the league. They were 15th in possessions per game (98.0) and 27th in field goal attempts (86.1), but their 49.3% shooting ranked 5th. From beyond the arc, they made 12.4 threes per game (20th) on 32.6 attempts (25th), with a 38.2% success rate, also 5th. Phoenix was 6th in both free throw attempts (23.4) and percentage (80.8%).

Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, who both averaged 27.1 points per game last season, are projected to lead the team in scoring again. Booker is ranked 8th in our league-wide scoring projections, while Durant is 14th. Grayson Allen is projected to lead the team in made threes, ranking 31st in the league, with Booker and Durant also in the top 52.

Last season, the Suns ranked 12th in our defensive power rankings, allowing 113.2 points per game, which was 13th in the NBA. They held opponents to 46.5% shooting, ranking 8th in field-goal percentage defense, and were 14th in three-point defense, allowing 36.4%. Inside, they were even better, holding teams to 53.1% shooting, the 6th-best mark in the league.

Phoenix also ranked 7th in blocked shots, averaging 6.0 per game, and were strong on the boards, finishing 7th in defensive rebounding. Kevin Durant and Jusuf Nurkic are among the NBA’s top rebounders, while Devin Booker contributes well for his position. The Suns averaged 7.4 steals per game, ranking 18th in the league.

The Clippers enter the season ranked 19th in our offensive power rankings after finishing 12th in points per game (115.6) last season. They were 27th in possessions per game (96.6) and 26th in field goal attempts per game (86.7), but they shot 48.9% from the field, ranking 6th. From beyond the arc, they made 12.6 threes per game (17th) on 33.2 attempts (21st), with a 38.1% success rate (6th). They also ranked 3rd in free throw percentage (82.5%) and averaged 22.2 free throw attempts per game (12th).

James Harden, who averaged 16.6 points and 8.5 assists last season, is projected to lead the team in scoring and 3-pointers made. He’s ranked 12th among shooting guards in projected points. Kawhi Leonard, who averaged 23.7 points last season, is out, and Norman Powell is projected to be the team’s 3rd-leading scorer. Ivica Zubac and Terance Mann round out the top 5 in projected points, with Kevin Porter Jr. ranked 6th and 3rd in projected 3-pointers made.

Last season, the Clippers ranked 10th in points allowed, giving up 112.3 per game, but we have them 27th in our defensive power rankings heading into this year. Opponents shot 46.9% from the field against them, placing them 12th in field-goal percentage allowed, and they were 13th in three-point defense, allowing 36.2% shooting.

Los Angeles averaged 7.8 steals per game, ranking 7th in the NBA, and were 15th in blocked shots, with Ivica Zubac leading the way. James Harden is projected to be one of their top rebounders, but Mo Bamba, another key contributor on the boards and in blocks, is currently out.

Betting Trends

• Across the Suns last three road games, the team averaged 104 points per game while allowing 110. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 1-2, while going 1-2 straight-up.
• Across the Clippers last five home games, the team averaged 101 points per game while allowing 105. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 2-3, while going 2-3 straight-up.
• The last three games that Los Angeles was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 1-2 straight up.
• The last five games that Phoenix was favored, they have an ATS mark of 1-4 while going 2-3 straight up.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Heading into the season opener for both sides, the Suns are the -5.5 point favorites on the road to kick off their season. The Clippers are already without Kawhi Leonard to start the season, and it’s hard to think that an aging James Harden is going to be able to do enough offensively to hang with the Suns. Look for Phoenix to open their season with a win, and I like them to cover at -5.5 tonight.