Clippers vs. Nuggets Spread Pick: Betting Preview & Analysis

Los Angeles Clippers (14-11 SU, 16-9 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (12-10 SU, 8-13 ATS)

When: Friday, December 13th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver

TV: ALT

Point Spread: LAL +6.5/Den -6.5

Total: 228.5

Money Line: Los Angeles Clippers +222/-269

Notable Injuries

Clippers

• Kawhi Leonard (Out) Knee
• P.J. Tucker (Out) Not With Team
• Derrick Jones Jr. (Out) Hamstring
• Terance Mann (Out) Finger
• Kobe Brown (Out) Back

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Probable) Calf
• Dario Saric (Out) Ankle
• Jamal Murray (Questionable) Hamstring
• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee
• Christian Braun (Probable) Quad
• DaRon Holmes II (Out) Achilles

At 9:00 ET, the Los Angeles Clippers (14-11) will travel to Denver to take on the Nuggets (12-10). The Nuggets are favored by 6.5 points, and the over/under line is set at 228.5.

Denver is 7th in the Western Conference and 2nd in the Northwest Division. The Clippers are 6th in the West and 2nd in the Pacific Division. Los Angeles has lost two straight.

Recent Form

The Clippers fell to 14-11 on the season after a 117-106 home loss to the Rockets on Sunday. L.A. entered the game as +3 underdogs but failed to cover the spread. The total score of 223 points exceeded the O/U line of 214 by 9 points.

A 12-0 run by Houston turned a 53-50 game into a 62-53 Rockets lead. The Clippers couldn’t recover, as they were outscored 34-24 in the 2nd quarter and entered the 4th down 95-83. L.A. edged Houston 23-22 in the final quarter but couldn’t close the gap.

The Nuggets improved to 12-10 this season after a dominant 141-111 win over the Hawks on Sunday. Denver, who were +1.5 point underdogs, covered the spread with ease. The game’s total points of 252.5 went over the pre-game line of 240.5.

Denver set the tone early, leading 38-23 after the 1st quarter and 71-48 at halftime. The Hawks made a 10-0 run to cut the score from 95-67 to 95-77, but the Nuggets responded by outscoring Atlanta 35-27 in the 4th quarter to seal the win.

The Historicals

The level of competition has been tight in the five most recent games between Clippers and Nuggets with just 2 points per game separating the teams. Los Angeles has the ATS edge in this span at 4-1. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 1-4. Combined, they averaged 218 points in these games.

Analysis

In their 117-106 loss to the Rockets, the Clippers struggled offensively, shooting 44.6% from the field and hitting just 11 threes at a 32.4% clip. Bones Hyland led the way with 22 points, knocking down five threes at 50% efficiency.

Ivica Zubac contributed 21 points and 12 rebounds, shooting 60% from the floor. Kevin Porter Jr. added 19 points, including 9 in the 3rd quarter, while Norman Powell chipped in 17 points.

The Clippers struggled defensively against the Rockets, giving up 117 points on 48% shooting. They allowed 30+ points in each of the first three quarters before tightening up in the 4th, where they allowed just 22 points.

From beyond the arc, the Clippers allowed 15 threes on 36% shooting. They also sent the Rockets to the line 26 times, where they hit 22 free throws. The Clippers finished with 11 steals and three blocks.

The Nuggets put up 141 points in their win over the Hawks, shooting an impressive 62.9% from the field and 44.4% from three-point range, with 12 made threes. Nikola Jokic led the way with 48 points, 14 rebounds, and eight assists, hitting 50% of his threes and shooting 58.6% overall.

Michael Porter Jr. added 26 points on 70.6% shooting, while Christian Braun contributed 17 points, making all of his three-point attempts. Jokic scored 16 points in the 3rd quarter and 13 in the 1st, while Braun added 8 points in the 3rd.

Defensively, the Nuggets were solid in their win over the Hawks, giving up 111 points. They held Atlanta to 23 points in the 1st quarter and 25 in the 2nd, though the Hawks scored 36 in the 3rd. Denver allowed 27 points in the 4th quarter.

Denver limited the Hawks to 40% shooting, including just 9 made threes at a 22% clip. The Nuggets sent Atlanta to the line 27 times, where they made 20 free throws. Denver pulled down 36 defensive rebounds, allowed 19 offensive boards, and recorded nine steals and five blocks.

Betting Trends

• Across the Clippers’ last ten road games, the team averaged 109 points per game while allowing 109. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 7-3 while going 5-5 straight-up.
• Across their three previous home games, Denver has an ATS mark of 1-2. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 1-2 while averaging 122 points per game.
• Going back to their last three games as the underdog, the Clippers have a straight-up record of 1-2. But their mark vs the spread was just 1-2.
• As the betting favorite, the Nuggets have an ATS mark of just 0-3 in their last three games. Denver posted a straight-up mark of 1-2 in these matchups.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

After taking down the Trail Blazers on December 3rd, the Clippers have put together two bad performances. First, they scored just 80 points vs the Timberwolves on the 4th and lost to the Rockets by 11 on December 8th. As for the Nuggets, they continue to be inconsistent, losing to the Wizards but then demolishing the Hawks. With the spread sitting at -6, I’m counting on Denver being on point tonight and putting together a complete game. Look for the Nuggets to win outright and cover.