Clippers vs. Mavericks ATS Pick – Lay the Points in Game 6

Los Angeles Clippers (51-31 SU, 40-47 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (50-32 SU, 51-36 ATS)

When: Friday, May 3rd, 9:30 PM (ET)

Where: American Airlines Center, TX, Dallas

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: LAC +7.5/Dal -7.5

Total: 206.5

Money Line: Los Angeles Clippers +266/-339

Notable Injuries

Clippers

• Kawhi Leonard (Out) Knee
• Terance Mann (Questionable) Leg

Mavericks

• Tim Hardaway Jr. (Out) Ankle
• Olivier-Maxence Prosper (Out) Ankle

Game six of this first-round Western Conference series between the Clippers and Mavericks tips off at 9:30 PM ET at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. The Mavericks lead the series 3-2, and if they win this game, they will advance to the second round. ESPN is carrying the game on TV, and the over/under line is sitting at 206.5 points. The Mavericks are favored by 7.5 points on the spread and are -339 on the money line. The Clippers are +266 on the money line.

The Mavericks picked up a big win in the most recent game of this series, taking down the Clippers by a final score of 123-93. Dallas was favored by 3 points heading into the game, and they easily covered the spread with their 30-point win. The Mavericks took control of the game in the 2nd quarter, outscoring the Clippers 31-22. The game also went over the over/under line of 208 points, with the teams combining for 216 points.

Luka Doncic had a huge game for the Mavericks, finishing with 35 points, 10 assists, and seven rebounds. As a team, the Mavericks shot 54% from the field and knocked down 14 threes. Maxi Kleber also had a big game from three-point range, hitting five threes on 71.4% shooting. Paul George and Ivica Zubac each had 15 points for the Clippers.

Recent Form

This season, the Clippers have an O/U record of 40-46-1, and their games have averaged a combined 226.7 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 206.5 points.

Looking at their ATS record, the Clippers are 40-47 overall and 21-22 on the road. As the underdog, their ATS record is 8-15, and they have failed to cover the spread in their last three games as the favorite.

On the road, the Clippers are 27-16 this season, and they have an average scoring differential of +3.3 points per game. In the Western Conference, they are currently in 4th place and have gone 30-22 against other teams in the West.

In their last game against the Mavericks, the Clippers lost by a score of 123-93. They were 3-point underdogs going into the game. The O/U line for that game was 208 points.

For the season, the Clippers are 7-16 as the underdog and have been the underdog in 23 of their 82 games. Today, they are 7.5-point underdogs.

In terms of their over/under record for the season, the Mavericks are 39-48-0. The over has hit in their last two games and today’s O/U line is 206.5.

On average, Dallas’ games have finished with 231.9 points this season, which is higher than today’s line of 206.5. In their last game against the Clippers, the two teams combined for 216 points.

For the season, the Mavericks have an ATS record of 51-36, including a 29-15 record on the road. At home, they are 22-21 vs. the spread. Dallas has covered the spread in their last two road games.

Dallas’ last game was also against the Clippers, and they won by a score of 123-93. The Mavs were favored by 3 points in that game.

Looking at the Western Conference standings, the Mavericks are currently in 5th place with a record of 50-32. In their division, they are in 1st place. Today, they are favored by 7.5 points.

In non-conference games, the Mavericks went 19-11 and 31-21 against Western Conference opponents. On the road, they are 27-17 compared to 26-17 at home.

The Historicals

The ATS record across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings is 3-2 in favor of the Mavericks. In these matchups, Dallas has averaged 105 points per game, while allowing 100. Over the course of these games, they averaged 205 points per game, leading a 2-3 over-under record.

Analysis

Looking at the Clippers’ offense, they are averaging 115.6 points per game this season, which is 12th in the NBA. Their scoring production on the road is slightly better at 115.3 points per game compared to 114.2 at home. Los Angeles is one of the better shooting teams in the league this season, as they have a field goal percentage of 48%, which is the 8th best mark in the league.

James Harden has shot the ball well of late for the Clippers, averaging 22.2 points per game in his last five games on a shooting percentage of 47.9%. In these games, he has hit 3.6 threes per contest. Paul George has also been shooting the ball well, hitting 42.9% of his shots and averaging 19.8 points per game in his last five.

So far this season, the Clippers’ defense has been solid, ranking 11th in the NBA in points allowed at 112.0 points per game. They have been even better on the road, sitting 9th in the league at 112.0 points per game.

One area where the Clippers’ defense has been strong is in their ability to limit opponents’ three-point shooting. On the season, they are 14th in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 36.1%.

Over their last five games, the Clippers’ defense has been even better, ranking 8th in points allowed at 105.6 points per game. During that stretch, they have also been able to limit opponents’ three-point shooting to just 33.5%.

Coming into the game, the Mavericks are 8th in the NBA in scoring at 117.9 points per game. Their home scoring average of 118.1 points per contest is 9th in the league. Dallas is 3rd in the league in both three-point attempts and makes this season. Despite that, they are just 15th in three-point shooting percentage. The Mavericks are currently 5th in two-point shooting at 56%.

Luka Doncic is averaging 30.2 points over his last five games to go along with 8.8 assists and 9.2 rebounds. In these games, he hit just 26.3% of his threes. Kyrie Irving is averaging 25.8 points in his last five games while hitting 42.5% of his threes. For the season, Doncic is averaging 4.1 made threes per game on a three-point shooting percentage of 38.2%. Tim Hardaway Jr. is out for the Mavericks and has a three-point shooting percentage of 35.3% this season. P.J. Washington is averaging 1.8 made threes per game but is also out for this game.

So far this season, the Mavericks’ defense has been middle of the pack, allowing 114.8 points per game (18th). At home, they have given up 114.5 points per contest (19th).

Over their last five games, the Mavericks’ defense has been even better, allowing just 100.2 points per game (4th). However, they have struggled to defend the three-point line during that stretch, allowing opponents to shoot 39.8% from beyond the arc (26th).

On the season, opposing teams have made 13.1 three-pointers per game against Dallas (20th). However, they have done a good job of keeping opponents off the free-throw line, allowing just 21.5 made free throws per game (14th).

Betting Trends

• Across the Clippers last ten road games, the team averaged 108 points per game while allowing 106. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 4-6, while going 7-3 straight-up.
• Dallas has played well in their previous five home games, going 3-2 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 102 points per game while allowing 104. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
• Going back to their previous three games as the underdog, Los Angeles has an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 1-2 straight up.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the favorite, Dallas has an ATS mark of 6-4 while going 6-4 straight up.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Dallas went on the road in game five and dominated the Clippers with a 20-point win. Now, they are 7.5 points favorites heading into game six. It’s starting to look like the combo of James Harden and Paul George are starting to wear down as the series goes on. And without Kawhi Leonard yet again, look for the Mavericks to close this one out. I’m taking Dallas at -7.5 on Friday.