Clippers vs Bucks Betting Preview: Thin Line Suggests Sharp Money on Home Dogs

Los Angeles Clippers (31-23 SU, 32-22 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (29-24 SU, 23-29 ATS)

When: Thursday, February 20th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee

TV: FDSW

Point Spread: LAL -1/Mil +1

Total: 226.5

Money Line: Los Angeles Clippers -109/-109

Notable Injuries

Clippers

• No Injuries Reported

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Questionable) Calf
• Damian Lillard (Questionable) Hamstring
• Andre Jackson Jr. (Questionable) Wrist

At 8:00 ET, the Los Angeles Clippers (-109) will travel to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks (-109) in a non-conference matchup. The Clippers are favored by 1 point and have a record of 31-23, which is good for 6th in the Western Conference. They have won 3 straight games. The Bucks are 5th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 29-24.

This game will be played at Fiserv Forum and can be seen on FDSW.

Recent Form

Los Angeles improved to 31-23 on the season with a 120-116 win over the Jazz on Thursday. Despite being favored by 10 points, the Clippers didn’t cover the spread. The total score of 236 points went over the pre-game line of 229.5.

The Clippers rallied after a 10-0 run by the Jazz early in the game. They chipped away at the lead, winning the 2nd quarter 28-27 and the 3rd quarter 32-35, before clamping down defensively in the 4th, holding Utah to just 13 points while scoring 22 to complete the comeback.

The Bucks improved to 29-24 this season with a 103-101 road win over the Timberwolves on Wednesday. Milwaukee entered the game as +9 underdogs but pulled off the upset. The total score of 204 points fell short of the 218.5 O/U line.

Milwaukee jumped out to a 36-24 lead after the 1st quarter, but Minnesota responded with a 13-0 run, narrowing the gap. The teams were evenly matched in the 3rd quarter, and the Bucks edged out the Timberwolves 33-32 in the 4th to secure the win.

The Historicals

In terms of betting, Milwaukee has an ATS record of 3-2 in the previous five matchups vs Los Angeles. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +3 points per game in favor of the Bucks. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 2-3. Combined, they averaged 227 points in these games.

Analysis

Norman Powell led the Clippers to a win over the Jazz, scoring 41 points and hitting five threes at 50% shooting from deep. James Harden added 32 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists, also connecting on five threes.

As a team, the Clippers made 14 threes, shooting 36.8% from beyond the arc, while finishing with a 41.5% field goal percentage overall. Powell scored 9 points in overtime, while Harden added 10 points in the 4th quarter.

Despite a tough defensive start, the Clippers tightened up in the 4th quarter, holding the Jazz to just 13 points to secure the win. Overall, they allowed 116 points on 48% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Jazz hit 18 threes at a 40% clip. The Clippers also sent Utah to the line 26 times, where they made 22 free throws. Defensively, the Clippers recorded 16 steals and five blocks.

In their win over the Timberwolves, the Bucks shot 44.3% from the field and hit 12 threes at a 40% clip. Gary Trent Jr. led the way with 21 points, knocking down three threes at 60%, while Kyle Kuzma added 19 points and 13 rebounds despite shooting 41.2%.

Trent scored 11 points in the 4th quarter, and Kevin Porter also added 7 of his 11 points in the final period. Taurean Prince contributed 8 of his 11 points in the 3rd quarter, hitting three threes at 60%.

The Bucks’ defense was strong on Wednesday, holding the Timberwolves to just 101 points on 37% shooting. Milwaukee gave up 24 points in the 1st quarter and 26 in the 2nd, but they clamped down in the 3rd, allowing only 19 points. Despite a 32-point 4th quarter from Minnesota, the Bucks held on for the win.

Milwaukee did an excellent job defending the three, with the Timberwolves hitting just 10 threes at a 22% clip. The Bucks also sent Minnesota to the line 15 times, where they made 13 free throws. Defensively, the Bucks grabbed 42 rebounds, gave up 15 offensive boards, and recorded seven steals.

Betting Trends

• In their last three games away from home, the Clippers have a straight-up record of 2-1 while going 0-3 vs the spread. The team averaged 113 points per game in this stretch.
• Through their last three home contests, the Bucks offense has averaged 108 points per game while allowing an average of 106. Milwaukee posted an overall record of 2-1 while going 1-2 ATS.
• Spanning across their last five games as the betting underdog, the Bucks have gone 2-3 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 2-3.
• Against the spread, the Clippers have put together of 2-3 in their last five games as the betting favorite. In these same games, they went 3-2 straight up.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The big piece of news to watch heading into this one is the health of Giannis, as he is questionable with his calf injury. Antetokounmpo missed several games before the All-Star Break, and this would be his first game since the moves they made at the deadline. I think the break came at a good time for the Bucks, as Doc Rivers had a chance to think through some rotations since adding Kyle Kuzma and Kevin Porter Jr. I like Milwaukee at +1 in this one.