Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Phoenix Suns Prediction 10/30/21

Cleveland Cavaliers (3-3 SU, 3-3-0 ATS) vs. Phoenix Suns (1-3 SU, 1-3-0 ATS)

When: Saturday, Oct. 30th, 2021, 10:00 pm (ET)

Where: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ

TV: Bally Sports/NBA LP

Point Spread: CLE +10/PHX -10 (Opened at -10)

Total: 216 (Opened at 216)

Money Line: CLE +360/PHX -475

Power Rating: PHX -10

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Probable Starting Lineups

Cleveland Cavaliers: PG Collin Sexton, PG Darius Garland, PF Lauri Markkanen, C Jarrett Allen, C Evan Mobley

Phoenix Suns:PG Chris Paul, SG Devin Booker, SF Mikal Bridges, PF Jae Crowder, C Deandre Ayton

Key Injuries

Cleveland Cavaliers: Kevin Pangos *Out* (Personal), Issac Okoro *Out* (Hamstring)

Phoenix Suns: Cameron Payne *Out* (Hamstring), Dario Saric *Out* (ACL)

Recent Form

After an 0-2 start, the Cavaliers went on a three-game win streak over the Hawks, Nuggets, and Clippers, all of which were playoff teams last year. Last night the Cavaliers fell short to the Lakers 113-101. Last night rookie Evan Mobley led the team with 23 in his first standout game of the year. Collin Sexton currently leads the team averaging 18.5 PPG. On offense, Cleveland averages 104.3 PPG, the 22nd best mark in the league. Defensively the Cavaliers allow 104.8 PPG, the 11th best in the NBA.

The Phoenix Suns are off to a 1-3 start on the season. After an NBA Finals appearance just a few months ago, it would be safe to say that they are disappointed with this year’s start. The slow start is in part to a rusty effort from Booker and Paul. The loss of Dario Saric will also have a lasting effect into this season as he suffered an ACL injury in game 1 of the 2021 Finals. Through four games, the Suns are averaging 106.3 PPG, which is 19th best in the league. On the defensive side, Phoenix is allowing 114.8 PPG which is 24th in the NBA.

Not the Same Suns

As forementioned, the Suns 1-3 start is less than ideal for a team coming off an NBA Finals appearance. The Suns aren’t alone, as overall most teams are seeing a slow offensive start, but nonetheless, one win through four games isn’t a record I’d expect looking at this roster. The offense has struggled to put together a complete game as they have only broken the 110-point mark in their first game of the season, which was their only win. Though a small sample size, the Suns are shooting 45.9% as a team, which is the lowest in the past three seasons. Switching over to the Suns defense, they allow opponents to score 47.8% from the field, which is 29th in the league. Look for this defensive slump to continue into Saturday night’s game, allowing the Cavaliers to get some open looks and complete a high percentage of shots on the night.

A Slow Pace

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Phoenix Suns, though with two different starts to the year, play a similar slow-paced game. Currently, the Suns average 103.0 possessions per game which is 20th in regard to pace. The Cavaliers average 101.8 possessions a game which lands them as the 25th slowest paced team. This strategy from both teams is due to their large-bodied lineups. The Suns have three starters 6’6″ or taller in Bridges, Crowder, and Ayton. The Cavaliers run a non-traditional lineup that features two centers in Jarrett Allen and rookie Evan Mobley. Statistically, this means typically lower scoring games and plenty of passing down to the end of each shot clock. A similar pace of play between these teams takes out the factor of one team needing to adjust by slowing down their play, or for that matter speeding up to keep up with the other team. This is why we see a 216 point over/under projection for the game. Look for Cleveland to keep it a close game with a low point total.

Cavaliers Defense is the Real Deal

The Cavaliers, in their last four games, have played some impressive defense. In their three wins on the year, they held the Hawks, Nuggets, and Clippers under 100 points. Playing with a “big man” lineup with starting centers allows the Cavaliers to force opposing offenses to take tougher shots. On top of that, PG Collin Sexton, though just 6’1″, is a gritty guard who plays good defense and is averaging 1.1 steals per game to start the year. In his second year with the team, Jarrett Allen is proving to be a good addition leading the team with 9.1 rebounds a game. Saturday night against a struggling Suns offense, this Cleveland defense may just have one of their best efforts of the year.

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The Historicals

Going back to the 2018-2019 season, we witnessed a shift in the momentum between these two teams. The Cavaliers held an eight-game winning streak before the Suns snapped it in April of 2019. Since then, the Suns have gone on their own streak, winning the last three matchups. Fair to say that Lebron’s departure from Cleveland for the second time played a direct part in the shift in momentum. The last time these teams met, the game went into overtime, where the Cavaliers decided to pack up after regulation and were outscored 20-4 in the 134-118 final.

How the Public is Betting the Cavaliers vs. Suns

65% are betting the Suns against the spread.

60% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 216.

Betting Trends Worth Noting

The Phoenix Suns are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games.
The Phoenix Suns are 0-4 ATS in their previous four games when playing off two days’ rest.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. the Suns in Phoenix.
The Under is 12-4 in the Cleveland Cavaliers’ last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record.
The Under is 4-1 in the Phoenix Suns’ last five games overall.

Collin’s Pick to Cover the Spread

With the recent struggles of the Suns, a 10-point spread is a tall task for a one-win team that hasn’t shown any consistency to start the year. Usually, I’d say a team playing back-to-back nights on the road would be at a disadvantage, but the Suns haven’t proven to be a fresh and fiery team off two days’ rest as of recent (0-4 ATS). The Cavaliers have secured two big wins on the road this year and have proven they can not only hang with teams to cover the spread but can steal an outright win. Take the Cavaliers to cover the +10 point spread vs. the Suns. Note: Due to the many “runs” by teams in the NBA, live betting is a great way to lock in value when a good team is down. Especially when playing at home! Most online sportsbooks only offer live betting during commercial breaks and halftimes. Did you know that Bovada Sportsbook offers lines 100% of the game? Bovada is a must have in your sports betting arsenal! Click here to check them out! (50% bonus and rebates on ALL your bets too!)