Cleveland Cavaliers (34-11 20-24 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (23-20 22-21 ATS) American Airlines Arena, Miami, FL 7:30 PM EST Monday January 25, 2010 on NBA TV
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Point Spread: Cavaliers -1 / Heat +1
Over/Under: 190
Tonight in the Sunshine State the Miami Heat host the red-hot Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs have been on fire lately, as they have won 4 in a row, including a win over the Lakers, are 7-3 in their last 10 games, and have a huge 12.5 game lead over the Chicago Bulls in the Central Division. The Heat have been playing well also, as they have won 2 in a row, are 6-4 in their last 10, and are in 3rd place in the Southeast Division 5.5 games back of the Atlanta Hawks.
This season the Heat are 13-10 at home and the Cavs are 17-8 on the road.
While this game is the Dwayne Wade vs. LeBron James match up this game may come down to which other player can help their superstar out. That may be more difficult for the Cavs, as 2nd leading scorer Mo Williams (16.9 ppg) is out for tonight’s game and may miss a month due to a sprained shoulder.
In 21 meetings against each other Wade and James have great stats, as Wade has averaged 27.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg and 6.7 assists per game on 46% shooting and King James has averaged 28.9 ppg, 5.6 rpg and 7.7 assists per game on 47% shooting.
Cleveland has been one of the best teams on the glass this season and to have any chance to win this game the Heat will have to rebound well as a team and not allow the Cavs to win the battle of the boards.
The Heat could really use this win, as it would give them confidence for their upcoming stretch of games with 11 of their next 13 games on the road.
In their last game the Heat crushed the Sacramento Kings 115-84 on Saturday night. The high scorer for the Heat in the game was Dwayne Wade going for 27 points on 11/15 shooting and he dished out 8 assists. For the game the Heat were smoking going 44/78 from the floor for a FG% of 56.4%. On D the Heat played well holding the Kings to 32/73 for a FG% of 43.8%.
The Cavs beat the Oklahoma City Thunder Saturday night 100-99 in a nail biter. The high scorer for the Cavs was, shocker, LeBron going for 37 points on 9/19 shooting and he was 1 rebound short of a triple double. For the game the Cavs shot well going 34/69 for a legit FG% of 49.3%. On D the Cavs clamped down holding the Thunder to 33/86 for a FG% of 38.4%.
This season the Cavs rank 11th in the league in scoring (100.9 ppg) and the Heat only rank 25th (96.8 ppg). On D both teams are solid, as the Cavs rank 4th in points allowed (94.6 ppg) and the Heat rank 9th (96.9 ppg). The Cavs have been much better this season on the boards, as they have a rebounding differential of +4.4 rpg while the Heat are only at -0.3 rpg.
Cleveland is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite, and 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning home record.
Miami is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a winning road record, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams in the Eastern Conference.
Cleveland’s total has gone Over in 5 of their last 7 games and 6 of their last 7 games as the favorite.
Miami’s total has gone Under in 4 of their last 5 games and in 5 of their last 7 home games.
According to the Sagarin NBA ratings the Cavs rank 1st (96.77) and the Heat rank 14th (90.96).
On the injury front PG Mo Williams is Out and SG Delonte West is day-to-day for the Cavs and SG Daequan Cook is day-to-day for the Heat.
Jason’s Pick: The Wade vs. James match up always brings out some great performances from these 2 stars, but the inside game on the glass will be where this game will be won and lost. Who will win this game straight up is anybody’s guess. The betting value here is with the UNDER 190 points. Good luck!