Chicago Bulls vs. Miami Heat Play-In Game Pick & Analysis

Chicago Bulls (39-43 SU, 41-40 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (46-36 SU, 40-39 ATS)

When: Friday, April 19th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Kaseya Center, FL, Miami

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Chi +1.5/Mia -1.5

Total: 205.5

Money Line: Chicago Bulls +104/-124

Notable Injuries

Bulls

• Zach LaVine (Out) Foot
• Andre Drummond (Questionable) Ankle
• Alex Caruso (Questionable) Foot
• Lonzo Ball (Out) Knee
• Patrick Williams (Out) Foot
• Ayo Dosunmu (Questionable) Quadricep
• Julian Phillips (Out) Foot
• Onuralp Bitim (Out) Eye

Heat

• Jimmy Butler (Out) Knee
• Josh Richardson (Out) Shoulder
• Terry Rozier (Out) Neck
• Duncan Robinson (Probable) Back

The Chicago Bulls (+104) visit the Miami Heat (-124) in an Eastern Conference matchup. The Bulls are 9th in the East, while the Heat are 8th. The over/under line for the game is 205.5 points.

Chicago is 39-43 on the season and 4th in the Central Division. Miami is 46-36 and 2nd in the Southeast. The Heat are currently on a two-game winning streak.

Recent Form

The Bulls have an O/U record of 44-37-1 this season, and the over has hit in their last four games. On average, their games have finished with a combined scoring total of 226 points.

Chicago’s ATS record for the season is 41-40, and they have covered the spread in three straight games on the road. As the underdog, they are 26-23 vs. the spread and 19-30 straight-up.

In their most recent game, the Bulls lost to the Knicks by a score of 120-119. Chicago covered the spread as 13.5-point underdogs, and the O/U line for the game was 218.5.

This season, the Bulls are 39-43 overall, which puts them in 9th place in the Eastern Conference. Against the East, they have a record of 22-29 and are 17-14 against non-conference opponents.

On the road, the Bulls are 19-22 this season, and they are 22-18 ATS on the road. As the underdog, their average scoring differential is -4.4 points per game.

In their last game, the Heat defeated the Raptors by a score of 118-103. Miami was favored by 16.5 points in that game. The win improved their record to 46-36 on the season, which is currently 8th in the Eastern Conference and 2nd in the Southeast Division.

At home this season, the Heat have an average scoring differential of +1.9 points per game. Their ATS record at home is 16-25, compared to 24-14 on the road.

Miami has won two straight games and is favored by 1.5 points against the Bulls. As the favorite, the Heat have a record of 35-13 this season and 23-22 ATS. As the favorite, they have gone 4-0 straight-up.

The Heat’s O/U record for the season is 35-47, and the over has hit in their last two games. On average, their games have finished with 218.5 points, and today’s O/U line is set at 205.5.

For the season, the Heat are 32-20 against other Eastern Conference teams and 14-16 in non-conference games.

The Historicals

Across the last 5 matchups between the teams, Chicago has gone 3-2 vs the spread. However, the Heat actually have a positive scoring margin in these games at +4 points per game. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 3-2. Combined, they averaged 216 points in these games.

Analysis

DeMar DeRozan has been carrying the Bulls offense of late, averaging 33.2 points per game over his last four games. In these games, he hit 55.6% of his shots from the field. On the season, he is averaging 24 points and 5.3 assists. Coby White is averaging 19.1 points per game and 19.8 over his last five games.

Chicago is averaging 112.3 points per game this season, which is 22nd in the league. On the road, they are averaging 113 points per game compared to 111.5 at home. The Bulls are 21st in pace, averaging 97 possessions per game.

Coming into the game, the Bulls defense has held opposing team’s to fewer points than the league average in 46.3% of their games. Currently, they are 16th in the NBA at 113.7 points per game allowed. The Chicago defense has allowed opponents to shoot 36.9% from beyond the arc this season. Opposing teams are also hitting 47.3% of their field goal attempts vs. Chicago.

Miami is averaging 112.1 points per game at home this season, which is 22nd in the league. Overall, they are 26th in the league at 110.1 points per contest. The Heat are near the bottom of the league in pace, averaging just 95.8 possessions per game. Looking at their three-point shooting, the Heat are 13th in the NBA, hitting 37% of their looks from downtown.

Over the Heat’s last five games, Tyler Herro has averaged 21.8 points per game on 46.6% shooting from the field. Jimmy Butler has hit 55.6% of his shots in that stretch and 18.6 points per game. For the season, Bam Adebayo is averaging 10.4 rebounds per game and 19.3 points per game. He is probable with a back injury.

Not only do the Heat’s overall defensive numbers look good, as they are 3rd in the league in points allowed. Miami has also been playing well on defense of late, ranking 14th in the league over their last three games at 105.7 PPG allowed. When it comes to forced turnovers, the Heat are forcing 11.8 per game, which is 6th in the league. They also come into the game sitting 30th in blocked shots at 3.4 per game.

Betting Trends

• The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last road games and 3-2 straight-up.
• In their last five home games, Miami has averaged 114 points per game while allowing 108. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-2 while going 5-0 vs. the spread.
• Through their last three games as the betting underdog, the Bulls have a strong record vs the spread going 2-1. Their straight up mark in these contests is 1-2.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Heat have gone 7-3 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 8-2.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Bulls have a chance to avenge last year’s play in tournament loss to the Heat, as Chicago held a late lead last year, but Miami went on a late run to pull out the win. I like the way things are trending for Chicago in this one, as Coby White has emerged as an outstanding offensive player this season for the Bulls. And on the other side, the Heat are going to struggle without Jimmy Butler. I’m going with the Bulls to win this one straight up and make their way into the playoff.