Charlotte Hornets vs. Milwaukee Bucks Pick

Charlotte Hornets (23-24 SU, 24-23 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (34-12 SU, 26-17-3 ATS)
When: Friday, January 25th, 2019 – 8:30 PM ET
Where: Fiserv Forum – Milwaukee, WI
TV: FSN
By: Keith Franks, NBA Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: CHA +11 / MIL -11 (MyBookie Sportsbook)
Total: 228.5
Power Rankings: Milwaukee -15

Takeaways From Charlotte and Milwaukee’s Most Recent Games

The Hornets come into this game off a 118-107 upset of the Memphis Grizzlies on their own court on Wednesday. Charlotte closed as a 1.5-point underdog and thus improved to 4-1 ATS in their previous five matches.

The NBA-leading Milwaukee Bucks step into this match as the best team in the league in terms of wins and losses and begins to offer a compelling case that this squad is a true Finals contender as they step into this match in stellar form. Milwaukee is presently riding a five-game winning streak capped off most recently by a 116-106 victory against the Dallas Mavericks when they hosted them on Monday.

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How the Public is Betting the Charlotte-Milwaukee Game

Presently, 53% of the consensus like the Hornets with the points. According to several sources, the line has remained idle in both the Point Spread and Over / Under market at the time this article was written.

The Historicals

The two teams last met when the Hornets hosted the Bucks at home in November and defeated them by a score of 110-107. The final result was classed as an upset as the Hornets closed as a 4.5-point underdog.

Injury Concerns

Both teams enter into this contest in relatively good health with no prevalent injury concerns.

Rest Advantages and Concerns

The Hornets are rounding off a three-game road trip that has spanned the last five days. This is the last contest on that itinerary for Charlotte as they enter into this contest on two days’ rest. For Milwaukee, the Bucks have had their feet up as they are rounding off a brief two-game home-stand but have not been on the hardwood in four days. Memphis to Milwaukee is by no means a daunting journey but nevertheless the Hornets are at a disadvantage given two days less rest to prepare for this contest combined with potential travel fatigue from their overall road trip.\

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Charlotte Will Look To Resolve Road Woes In A Notoriously Hostile Setting

In addition to rest concerns, Charlotte has struggled mightily on the road this season as they stand 7-16 SU away from home. They will struggle to find reprieve in Milwaukee as the Bucks are a force to be reckoned with on their own court. At the Fiserv Forum, the Bucks are a remarkable 21-4 SU which offers some grim news for the visiting Hornets. The Hornets have two advantages that they will need utilize to stay competitive in this match. Charlotte owns an edge in turnovers and their bench gives them a tremendous advantage as they produce 12.5 more points per game compared to Milwaukee. Charlotte’s bench averages 44.5 points per outing while the Bucks’ bench yields 32 points per contest. However, the question remains will the game be competitive enough for depth to become a factor.

Milwaukee Will Continue To Be A Disruptive Force In Shooting Game

The Bucks are a disruptive force when it comes to the shooting game. Overall, Milwaukee sits third in the NBA in field goal percentage as they hit 48.1% of their attempts. On the defensive side of things, the Bucks are the best team in the NBA in limiting opponent field goal efficiency as opponents shoot just 43.1% against them. The Deer also stick their antlers out in opponent free-throw percentage as they are the best in the league in that department as well. The opposition hits just 73.9% of their free throw attempts against Milwaukee. Coupling these narratives with the fact that the Bucks are the best offensive rebounding team in the NBA (averaging 49.1 offensive rebounds per game), Milwaukee can use their home court advantage, ability to frustrate the competition’s shooting, and physical presence on the boards to implement its own brand of psychological warfare to bully the Hornets.

Betting Trends

The most prominent betting trend is the fact that the Hornets are 4-0-1 ATS in the previous five meetings. Milwaukee has not produced a cover in the last five matches which makes the Hornets look quite appealing here with the hearty take back of points. Moreover, in Milwaukee in particular the Hornets are 6-2-1 ATS on the Bucks’ court.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Milwaukee -11

Though the points make Charlotte look easy, it is actually the Deer that offer the value. According to other betting sites, the Bucks are supremely under-priced as they could be justified spotting two more buckets to the Hornets in this spot. That is how we will place this one and take advantage of the NBA’s top team in the standings offered at a bargain price. The fact remains Milwaukee plays at a higher level on its own court while the Hornets have many documented woes outside of the Queen City. When you combine this edge along with the rest concerns and the Deer’ physical and defensive-minded game, the Bucks will wear Charlotte out and they could win this one by possibly more than 20 points. Milwaukee will win big and cover with ease here against Charlotte.