Celtics vs. Warriors Predictions: Expert NBA Picks Against the Spread

Boston Celtics (29-13 SU, 16-25 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (21-20 SU, 20-21 ATS)

When: Monday, January 20th, 5:00 PM (ET)

Where: Chase Center, CA, San Francisco

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Bos -8.5/GS +8.5

Total: 224

Money Line: Boston Celtics -337/+272

Notable Injuries

Celtics

• Kristaps Porzingis (Questionable) Leg

Warriors

• Draymond Green (Out) Calf
• Stephen Curry (Questionable) Ankle
• Kyle Anderson (Out) Hamstring
• Jonathan Kuminga (Out) Ankle
• Brandin Podziemski (Out) Abdominal

At 5:00 ET, the 29-13 Boston Celtics (-337) will travel to San Francisco to take on the 21-20 Golden State Warriors (+272) in a non-conference matchup. The Celtics are currently favored by 8.5 points and have won two straight games. The over/under line for this game is 224 points.

This game will be played at the Chase Center and can be seen on TNT. The Celtics (-337) are currently 2nd in the Eastern Conference and 1st in the Atlantic Division. The Warriors (+272) are 11th in the Western Conference and 5th in the Pacific Division.

Recent Form

The Celtics fell to 29-13 on the season after a 119-115 loss to the Hawks on Saturday. Boston, who was -9.5 point favorites at home, not only lost the game but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game ended at 234, just under the O/U line of 237.5.

Boston started strong, leading 33-21 after the 1st quarter, but a poor 2nd quarter saw them outscored 31-15. They bounced back in the 3rd, taking a 78-73 lead into the 4th, but couldn’t hold on as Atlanta outscored them 31-26 in the final period.

The Warriors improved to 21-20 this season with a 122-114 win over the Wizards on Saturday. Golden State was favored by 13.5 points but didn’t cover the spread, and the combined score of 236 points went over the line of 231.5.

Golden State went on an 11-0 run to turn the game around, taking the lead from 65-58 to 69-65. They finished strong, outscoring Washington 36-27 in the 3rd quarter and 33-27 in the 4th.

The Historicals

Although the Warriors have the better ATS mark across the previous five head-head matchups at 4-1, the average scoring margin sits in favor of Boston, as they averaged 121 points per game while allowing 115. Boston and Golden State averaged a combined 236 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

The Celtics struggled offensively in their loss to the Hawks, shooting just 38.5% from the field and 28.8% from three-point range, making 15 threes. Jaylen Brown led the way with 24 points, 11 rebounds, and eight assists despite shooting 33.3% from the field and 22.2% from deep.

Jayson Tatum also shot 33.3% and 22.2% from three, finishing with 23 points. Derrick White added 21 points, hitting five threes at 31.2%. Payton Pritchard scored 13 of his 20 points in the 4th quarter, while Luke Kornet contributed 17 points, with six coming in the 1st quarter.

Despite holding the Hawks to just 21 points in both the 1st and 3rd quarters, the Celtics gave up 31 points in the 2nd and 4th, leading to a 119-115 loss. Boston allowed Atlanta to shoot 47% from the field.

The Celtics did well defending the three, limiting the Hawks to 9 made threes on 24% shooting. Boston also recorded 13 steals and six blocks in the game.

Andrew Wiggins led the Warriors to a win over the Wizards, scoring 31 points and grabbing 11 rebounds while hitting four threes at 40% efficiency. Stephen Curry added 26 points, though he shot just 28.6% from beyond the arc, also making four threes.

Golden State connected on 14 threes as a team, shooting 34.1% from deep and 46.9% overall. Dennis Schröder contributed 20 points, scoring 10 in the 3rd quarter, while Wiggins added 10 in the 3rd and nine more in the 4th.

Defensively, the Warriors gave up 114 points to the Wizards but managed to hold them to 27 points in both the 3rd and 4th quarters. Overall, Washington shot 44% from the field.

Golden State struggled to defend the three, allowing the Wizards to hit 22 threes at a 48% clip. The Warriors sent Washington to the line 23 times, where they made 16 free throws. Golden State finished with six steals and seven blocks.

Betting Trends

• Across their five previous road games, Boston has an ATS mark of 2-2-1. Their straight up record in these matchups was 3-2 while averaging 106 points per game.
• Across the Warriors last ten home games, the team averaged 102 points per game while allowing 110. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 5-5 while going 3-7 straight-up.
• In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Warriors have a straight-up record of 1-2 and an ATS mark of 1-2.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Celtics have a straight up record of 6-4. Their record vs the spread in these games was 4-5-1.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Boston was surprised by the Hawks at home on Saturday and now heads out West to take on a Warriors unit that has a lengthy injury report. Draymond Green is already out, and Steph Curry is questionable. I see Boston rebounding from their loss to Atlanta and covering the spread on the road.